2024 NFL Draft order: How Pats' upset in Denver impacts pick position

2024 NFL Draft order: How Pats' upset in Denver impacts pick position originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The New England Patriots' path to landing Caleb Williams or Drake Maye just got a lot more complicated.

The Patriots entered Sunday night's game against the Denver Broncos with the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft thanks to their 3-11 record, which was tied with the Arizona Cardinals for second-worst in the NFL behind the 2-12 Carolina Panthers.

Then a series of improbable events unfolded in Denver, where New England stunned the Broncos as 7-point underdogs on Sunday night in a 26-23 Christmas Eve victory.

That loss bumped the Patriots, at 4-11, down to the No. 4 pick, as the Arizona Cardinals (3-12) and Washington Commanders (4-11) vaulted to No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, with their losses on Sunday. The first tiebreaker for draft order is reverse strength of schedule, and the Commanders (.520) project to have a slightly easier strength of schedule than the Patriots (.522), per Tankathon, meaning they would win the tiebreaker.

It might be hard for New England to catch either team, too. After their loss to the New York Jets on a last-second field goal Sunday, the Commanders finish their 2023 season against two elite NFC teams in the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. The Cardinals, meanwhile, finish with the 10-4 Philadelphia Eagles and 8-7 Seattle Seahawks.

So, if Washington and Arizona both lose out against those superior opponents, the Patriots will finish with no better than a No. 3 pick and likely the No. 4 pick unless they overtake the Commanders in strength of schedule.

The Patriots entered the weekend with the chance to vault the Chicago Bears (via the Carolina Panthers) for the No. 1 overall selection and their pick of two elite quarterback prospects in Williams and Maye. But New England's win combined with losses by Carolina, Arizona and Washington dramatically changed the top-four landscape -- and not in the Patriots' favor.

Here's a look at the current 2024 NFL Draft order, which we'll update through the remaining Week 16 games:

10. Atlanta Falcons, 7-8

9. New York Jets, 6-9

8. Chicago Bears, 6-9

7. Tennessee Titans, 5-10

6. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-10

5. New York Giants, 5-10

4. New England Patriots, 4-11

3. Washington Commanders, 4-11

2. Arizona Cardinals, 3-12

1. Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers, 2-13)