Kansas City Chiefs 2023 NFL Preview: If they have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, they'll be great
We're starting to see a strange pushback against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on social media, mostly because of the over-the-top praise Mahomes gets from announcers and other media.
Here's the thing: It's all deserved. Whatever plaudits Mahomes gets, they're accurate. Don't be someone who is incapable of appreciating a player who might end up being the greatest quarterback of all time. He's special. He's not going away. Neither are the Chiefs.
If anything, Mahomes' 2022 season isn't being appreciated enough. There was actually a groundswell to give Jalen Hurts the NFL MVP last season before Hurts got injured. Hurts was great too, but giving him MVP would not have aged well.
Last offseason the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. Hill was spectacular for the Dolphins, helping elevate Tua Tagovailoa into a star and for a while threatening 2,000 yards receiving. The Chiefs didn't replace Hill with any alpha receiver, though all-world tight end Travis Kelce was still around. And without one of the NFL's best receivers, Mahomes was as good as ever.
Mahomes led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, all with Hill helping turn Tagovailoa into a star in Miami. Mahomes led the Chiefs to the No. 1 seed in the AFC and rightfully won NFL MVP. Then on an ankle injury that didn't fully heal until months after he suffered it, Mahomes led Kansas City to an AFC championship and a Super Bowl LVII win. He was Super Bowl MVP again.
This is what greatness looks like. Mahomes could retire tomorrow, at age 27, and be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Three players have multiple regular-season MVPs and multiple Super Bowl MVPs: Mahomes, Joe Montana and Tom Brady.
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And Mahomes' head coach, Andy Reid, will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, too. When you have two undeniable all-time greats at quarterback and coach, you're going to be good every season. Mahomes has been a starter five seasons and the Chiefs have made the AFC championship game five times. They have made three Super Bowls, losing two AFC title games in overtime. The Chiefs are probably a dynasty already and if not, they have time to add more trophies.
While plenty of the praise goes to Mahomes and Reid, the Chiefs quietly reloaded and won a Super Bowl in the process. They had 61 starts from rookies last season, most for any Super Bowl champion since at least 1991, according to NFL Research. Four rookies — cornerback Trent McDuffie, defensive end George Karlaftis, cornerback Jaylen Watson and running back Isiah Pacheco — started the Super Bowl, matching the 2010 Green Bay Packers and 2016 Atlanta Falcons for most rookies to start a Super Bowl, according to NFL.com. The Chiefs got five draft picks from the Hill trade, and that has helped them make the roster younger. All while winning another championship.
It's not like the Chiefs have no concerns. Kelce will turn 34 this season, and only one tight end has put up a 1,000-yard season at age 34 or older (Pete Retzlaff with the 1965 Philadelphia Eagles). He also hyperextended his knee in practice and is questionable to play in the Chiefs' opener. The passing game would miss Kelce's dominance if he finally shows his age. While the Chiefs have a lot of options at receiver, none of them is Hill or even close. Chris Jones, Kansas City's best defensive player, isn't happy with his contract and is holding out. The defense might be average at best throughout the Mahomes era.
And last season proved that nothing else really matters but two things: Mahomes and Reid. NFL analysis should be more complicated than just talking about the coach and quarterback. In the Chiefs' case, it really is that simple.
Offseason grade
The Chiefs lost offensive tackle Orlando Brown on a four-year, $64.1 million deal to the Cincinnati Bengals, so they signed offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor from the Jacksonville Jaguars to a four-year, $80 million deal. Brown played left tackle and Taylor is a right tackle, so the Chiefs signed former Tampa Bay Buccaneers left tackle Donovan Smith to replace Brown on that side. Smith is coming off a miserable season but has been good in the past. Offensive lineman Andrew Wylie also left in free agency, so it's a season of transition on the line. The Chiefs lost receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, but they have been stocking up at receiver in the past couple drafts. They lost valuable postseason star Frank Clark on the pass rush, but signed defensive end Charles Omenihu from the San Francisco 49ers, though Omenihu has been suspended the first six games for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy. The draft didn't get great grades. Edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah, receiver Rashee Rice and offensive tackle Wanya Morris were the team's top 100 picks. Last season the Chiefs struck it big in the seventh round with cornerback Jaylen Watson and running back Isiah Pacheco, so maybe some late-round picks emerge again.
Grade: C
Quarterback report
Last season's Super Bowl wasn't Patrick Mahomes' best game, but it will be one of the most memorable. Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain in the divisional round of the playoffs against Jacksonville on a dangerous tackle. Mahomes left that game for a bit, came back and helped the Chiefs advance. His scramble at the end of the AFC championship game against the Cincinnati Bengals ended with a penalty when he was shoved after he was out of bounds, and that led to the game-winning field goal. In the Super Bowl, Mahomes was in pain after a second-quarter tackle. But he threw two fourth-quarter touchdowns and his 26-yard run on that bad ankle set up the game-winning field goal. Mahomes playing through extreme pain to win a Super Bowl immediately became part of his growing legacy.
BetMGM odds breakdown
The Chiefs were 5-11-1 against the spread last season, tied for the second-worst ATS record in the NFL. It wasn't the first time the Chiefs have struggled against the spread. The reason is obvious: Everyone knows Kansas City and Mahomes are great, and oddsmakers inflate their lines because they know the public will bet on them. The Chiefs are the Super Bowl favorites with +600 odds at BetMGM. They're -200 to win the AFC West, the shortest odds for any team to win their division. Their win total is 11.5. You can respect the Chiefs, think they're the best team in the NFL and still not see much value in betting on them.
Yahoo's fantasy take
From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "It’s amazing that Patrick Mahomes had an MVP season last year, and led the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns, without a single wide receiver holding fantasy relevance. No member of this receiving room cracked the Top 35 at the position, and the medalist of the group — JuJu Smith-Schuster — has departed.
"Perhaps there’s no right answer here. Kadarius Toney gained some early summer steam, but he’s coming off knee surgery and iffy for the opener. Sophomore Skyy More barely played last year. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a speciality player who probably won’t run the complete route tree. Maybe rookie Rashee Rice is ready to do something, but I won’t draft him proactively. Perhaps the Chiefs will ham-and-egg it again with a mishmash of wideouts."
Stat to remember
The Chiefs had some good fortune last season. They were 10-3, including postseason, in games decided by seven points or less. Kansas City will always have a better than .500 record in those games due to their quarterback play and coaching, but 10-3 is still a bit on the lucky side. Kansas City had the fourth-best injury luck in Football Outsiders' adjusted games lost to injury metric. Last season the Chiefs had the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL (via Football Outsiders); this season they have the fifth-toughest schedule (via Sharp Football Analysis). Kansas City also benefited by getting the No. 1 seed after the Cincinnati Bengals-Buffalo Bills game was canceled; the Chiefs were 14-3 and would have lost the tiebreaker to the Bills, who finished 13-3. The Chiefs weren't lucky to win a Super Bowl last season, but they caught some breaks.
Burning question
Are the Chiefs better on defense than we think?
The Eagles got all the attention for leading the league with 70 sacks last season. The Chiefs were far behind that, but still second in the NFL with 55. Chris Jones is unblockable at times, though the Chiefs will have to resolve his lingering contract situation. George Karlaftis had a solid rookie season with six sacks. The foundation to almost any good defense is a top-tier pass rush, and the Chiefs had that last season. They have promising rookie seasons from cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson last season, and along with L'Jarius Sneed they form a good cornerback room. The Chiefs' defense was 17th in Football Outsiders' DVOA last season, which is fine when you have the No. 1 offense. It's possible the Chiefs are much better on defense this season.
Best-case scenario
Tom Brady has the record with seven Super Bowl rings. Patrick Mahomes has two rings at 27 years old (Brady had three at age 27). It's very, very hard to predict Mahomes, or anyone, will ever match Brady. But it's possible. The Chiefs are favored to win it all this season. They're doing a good job retooling the roster as they continue to compete for titles. In the Chiefs' dream scenario, Mahomes can match or beat Peyton Manning's record of five MVP awards and get to Brady's seven rings as well. He's good enough that they're not outrageous goals.
Nightmare scenario
At the end of the "Quarterback" series on Netflix, Patrick Mahomes is celebrating with Chris Jones in the locker room after the Super Bowl when Jones points out they've won two titles together. "Two of 'em," Mahomes says. "We ain't done though. We ain't done." It's usually not that easy, not even for the greats. Tom Brady went nine seasons between his third and fourth Super Bowl win. Brett Favre won one at 27 and never won another. Same with Aaron Rodgers. Dan Marino and other great quarterbacks never won one. The NFL is hard. We think Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to keep winning championships, but it's not guaranteed. If Travis Kelce finally hits the wall, like practically every other tight end his age through NFL history, and the other receivers don't step up, if the defense is below average and the Chiefs don't catch some breaks, it's not like appearing in another AFC championship game is their birthright. Even though it feels that way at times.
The crystal ball says ...
The Chiefs will be very good again. I spent time last offseason doubting their ability to stay on top without Tyreek Hill, but that was ridiculous. The Chiefs are going to be Super Bowl contenders as long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are employed in Kansas City. The odds are against any team winning the Super Bowl. Plenty of teams are aiming for the Chiefs' crown, and it's hard to repeat. Still, the Chiefs will likely be the most popular preseason pick to win another Super Bowl. It's hard to argue against it.
Other team previews
31. Houston Texans
30. Chicago Bears
29. Tennessee Titans
28. Los Angeles Rams
22. Denver Broncos
21. Atlanta Falcons
18. New York Giants
14. Cleveland Browns
11. Seattle Seahawks
10. Baltimore Ravens
