2023 MLB trade deadline: The Rangers need Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery and maybe more to stay ahead of the Astros
With the Astros and Angels charging hard, Texas will need all the help it can get to maintain a hold on the AL West
Propelled by a rocket-fueled lineup that mixes star signings Corey Seager and Marcus Semien with younger ignitors such as Josh Jung, the Texas Rangers have been holding down first place in the AL West since April 9 and have led the stalking Houston Astros by as many as 6.5 games. But even after a massive offseason overhaul of the starting rotation, GM Chris Young has been spending the days leading up to the midnight hour that is Tuesday’s MLB trade deadline pursuing more, more, more.
Specifically, more pitching. After acquiring Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Jake Odorizzi and re-signing Martín Pérez over the winter, the Rangers have now added Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery in trades. That brings the count, if you weren’t keeping track, to seven veteran starting pitchers added or retained since the end of the 2022 season. And incredibly, the Rangers' ethos of pitching abundance is necessary. They might even need more.
That’s the Astros effect.
As Young and manager Bruce Bochy knew coming into the season — and even after they leaped out to the pole position — stealing the division from the defending World Series champs and perennial contenders was never going to be easy. That explains Texas’ heavy spending on a lacking starting rotation in the offseason and why it's aggressively retooling it now as one of the deadline’s most obvious buyers.
Entering Monday, the Astros have closed the AL West gap — which reached its 6.5-game apex on June 23 — to just one game. Playoff odds from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus chart the Astros, not the Rangers, as the favorites to win the division and seize one of the byes into the ALDS.
If Young and Bochy had their druthers, they would be lining up deGrom, Eovaldi and Jon Gray for the stretch run, which includes a three-game showdown with the Astros in Arlington in early September. But that vision went out the window a while ago. With deGrom out for the season after elbow surgery and Eovaldi at least temporarily on the injured list due to elbow issues that sapped his velocity, the Rangers are assembling a trade-deadline backup plan to buttress the offseason master plan.
They certainly hope Eovaldi — whose ace turn was a big reason for the Rangers’ first-half surge — returns soon, but for now, Scherzer and Montgomery will step in atop a rotation that needs to stabilize if Texas is going to take advantage of a fully loaded lineup. The pitching has not been holding up its end of the bargain recently. The Rangers' staff ranks eighth-worst by park-adjusted ERA since June 1 and third-worst since June 23, the peak of their AL West dominance. Figuring out exactly how to apportion the incoming help — which includes earlier bullpen acquisition Aroldis Chapman and reliever Chris Stratton from the Montgomery deal — will be crucial.
Scherzer, taking flight from Queens amid the New York Mets’ retrenchment, will reunite with pitching coach Mike Maddux after working with him in Washington and aim to find a consistent form that keeps him productive despite the pains of aging. Montgomery, meanwhile, has been a beacon of consistency, despite moving for the second straight trade deadline. Since the start of 2022, when he was with the New York Yankees, the 30-year-old lefty has a 3.46 ERA (good for a 117 ERA+) in 299 1/3 innings.
Pretty much everyone on the Texas staff is contributing to the recent stumbles, but Pérez (7.13 ERA since June 23) and Andrew Heaney (6.21 ERA in that time) have been particularly vulnerable to damaging home runs. One or both are likely to find themselves moving to the bullpen as Scherzer and Montgomery slot into the rotation, but this could be the start of a shuffle of competence. Dane Dunning, the 28-year-old righty-hander who has filled in admirably in deGrom’s absence, boasts a 3.28 ERA, but worrisome underlying numbers (such as a 15.5% strikeout rate) point to overperformance that might give way to something more like his 4.87 xERA or 4.26 FIP.
Scherzer has struggled with home runs himself. The 39-year-old has allowed 23 in 19 starts this season and might benefit from working in shorter bursts. His performance in the middle innings, by ERA (6.25) or wOBA allowed (.398), is bottom-five among qualified starters.
Montgomery, who will hit free agency at season’s end, has been steadier, even if he doesn’t come with Scherzer’s ceiling or pedigree. He has given up only 0.74 homers per nine innings and sports a 2.37 ERA since the beginning of June, despite the generalized chaos that was unfolding around him in St. Louis.
Scherzer, Montgomery and any other pre-deadline additions are walking into a high-stakes race. With the Los Angeles Angels’ decision to add around Shohei Ohtani and the Seattle Mariners not yet moving in any direction, the AL West might be doling out some of the league’s toughest schedules the rest of the way.
And, of course, the Astros loom. Buoyed by All-Star Kyle Tucker and breakout outfielder Chas McCormick, Houston made up much of the ground in the division without thumpers Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, who recently returned from injuries. Now, the Astros earn projection systems’ benefit of the doubt by putting all those pieces together, along with José Abreu, who has rebounded from a brutal start to bat .282/.324/.473 the past two months.
Houston has pitching depth questions of its own, following injuries to Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. and Jose Urquidy, but it can point to a track record of developing solutions.
For now, the Rangers have decided their best tact is to buy solutions, with cash and with prospects. This lineup — best in the AL and second overall to the Atlanta Braves, by wRC+ — is World Series-level good. All the days spent in first, though, don’t guarantee the Rangers' passage to October glory or even to the playoffs. With the super-competent Astros and super-motivated Angels charging hard, the Rangers will need all the arms they can get to power this season to an ending as satisfying as its early trajectory.
