2023-24 Fantasy Basketball: Draft these players ready to bounce back

By Nick Whalen, RotoWire

Special to Yahoo Sports

The 2023-24 NBA season is less than three weeks away, which means draft season is in full swing. Finding value throughout the draft is an obvious goal for any manager, and part of that is identifying players whose value may be depressed coming off of a disappointing 2022-23 campaign.

Of course, injuries and rest were a primary inhibitor for a number of big-name players last season. However, names like LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard — just to name a few — remained elite producers when healthy. For our purposes, we’ll look to recognize players who were not greatly impacted by missed games a year ago but instead failed to meet value on a pure statistical basis.

Below, we’ll delve into six players who could be set for a major bounce-back fantasy season:

Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors (ADP: 54.8)

Hand up: I was all-in on Scottie Barnes last season and was even willing to jump ADP in several drafts. Barnes was fantastic as a rookie, finishing 38th in total value thanks to a well-rounded stat line punctuated by a strong field-goal percentage (49.2%) — especially by rookie standards. Year 2 was far from a disaster for Barnes, but he got off to a sluggish start and failed to make a notable jump in just about every category. His assists and free-throw percentage saw slight improvements, but his field-goal percentage dropped to 45.6%, while he shot just 28.1% from beyond the arc.

After losing Fred VanVleet, the Raptors are in an interesting spot heading into 2023-24. Barnes is still behind Pascal Siakam in the pecking order, but the hope is that he establishes himself as a clear No. 2 option ahead of O.G. Anunoby. If Barnes can make even marginal improvements as a shooter, and continue to evolve as a passer, he has clear top-40 upside. Perhaps it’s wishful thinking, but I like Barnes’ chances to outdo his current Yahoo ADP.

Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves (ADP: 63.6)

The big man’s first year in Minnesota was a massive fantasy disappointment — there’s no other way to put it. He carried a 27.9 ADP into the season and finished 68th in total value and 64th in per-game value — both his worst finishes since 2015-16. Not only did Gobert struggle to fit in alongside Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, but his numbers dropped across the board. Most notably, Gobert blocked only 1.4 shots per game while losing more than 3.0 rebounds per game compared to his final year in Utah.

Blocks and rebounds are Gobert’s calling card when it comes to fantasy. He essentially needs to be a 2.0-blocks-per-game player to meet value, which he’d done on an annual basis in Utah. Understandably, fantasy managers are approaching Gobert with some caution this season, as his ADP sits all the way down at around 64th. We should view last season as Gobert’s floor — it was basically a worst-case scenario. As long as he stays healthy, Gobert should have a great chance to bounce back and return to being a player who posts 2.0 blocks and closer to 12.0 or 13.0 rebounds per game. He may never reach the heights of his peak years with the Jazz, but Gobert is a player I’m confidently targeting above ADP.

Tobias Harris, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP: 93.8)

Perennially, Harris is one of the most boring players to roster in fantasy, but he’s also extremely consistent. He’s played at least 72 games in seven of the last eight seasons, providing a nice floor even as his role tends to fluctuate as part of the Sixers’ ever-changing roster. Last season, Harris remained steady, but his counting stats took a hit across the board, leading to his lowest fantasy finish (86th in per-game value) since 2013-14.

Playing alongside Joel Embiid and James Harden was partially to blame, as was the emergence of Tyrese Maxey as a high-end third option. But with Harden now attempting to push his way out, the path may be cleared for Harris to reclaim that No. 3 role in Philly. If the Sixers do deal Harden, and fail to bring in another headliner, Harris could push for 17-to-18 points per game, up from the 14.7 PPG he posted a year ago.

Either way, Harris should remain an extremely steady option, and he’s available at a significant discount. As of publication, Harris’ ADP sits at 94th. Keep in mind that in terms of total value (i.e. games played are factored in), Harris hasn’t finished lower than 58th (last season) since his early days with the Orlando Magic.

John Collins, Utah Jazz (ADP: 104.1)

In fantasy basketball, Collins has fallen by the wayside over the last few years as an increasingly marginalized piece for the Hawks. But we’re not that far removed from Collins finishing 12th in per-game value (2019-20) and putting up back-to-back top-65 campaigns. Two seasons ago, Collins was going off the board in the top 60 in most drafts. Now, he carries an ADP in the triple digits.

For years, fantasy managers have been begging for Collins to find a better situation, and that’s exactly what he should have in Utah. The Jazz have a clear No. 1 option in Lauri Markkanen, but Collins should have a chance to step into a more featured role now that he’s away from the high-usage Trae Young/Dejounte Murray combo. Expectations need to remain in check, but it’s very realistic that Collins’ numbers could move closer to his 2020-21 and 2021-22 production. In particular, Collins will need to bounce back as a three-point shooter. From 2019-22, he hit 38.8% of his threes, compared to just 29.2% last season.

Jalen Green, Houston Rockets (ADP: 78.1)

After a strong close to his rookie season, expectations were sky-high for Green coming into Year 2. Technically, he did have a better fantasy season, but it was far from the sophomore breakout many were hoping for. While Green boosted his scoring, rebounds, assists and three-pointers per game, he shot just 41.7% from the field and 33.8% from three.

Counting stats — particularly points — shouldn’t be an issue for Green, but the efficiency will have to take a leap if he’s going to live up to his fantasy potential. That extends to the free-throw line as well, where Green hit 78.6% of his attempts last season (down from 79.7% as a rookie). While that’s not a disastrous figure, it’s also not a plus for a player who took more than six free throws per game last season.

For now, Green is a much more appealing target in points leagues, but he’s only 21 years old and should be in position to develop better habits under new head coach Ime Udoka. Kevin Porter Jr.’s (expected) absence is also a mark in Green’s favor, though the addition of Fred VanVleet brings another primary ball-handler into the mix. Either way, given Green’s pedigree and flashes of elite scoring ability, he’ll be a player to monitor closely throughout his third NBA season.

Deandre Ayton, Portland Trail Blazers (ADP: 52.7)

Considering he was a top-40 pick in Yahoo leagues last season, Ayton’s mid-70s finish felt like a disappointment. While he gave fantasy managers a nightly 18-and-10, he blocked just 0.8 shots per game and shot 58.9% from the field — down from 63.4% in 2021-22. Historically, Ayton hasn’t been an elite shot-blocker, but he does have a pair of 1.0+ BPG seasons under his belt.

It was an open secret that the relationship between Ayton and the Suns had soured prior to last season, so the move to Portland should be viewed as a positive. Ayton seems energized by the change of scenery, and he’ll now have a chance to reset and grow alongside the rest of Portland’s young core. If a re-focused Ayton can top 1.0 blocks and return to being a 60-to-63% shooter, he could finally break through as a consistent top-50 fantasy asset. Considering he’s averaged a double-double in all of his NBA seasons, the points and rebounds sustaining shouldn’t be a major concern, even with Robert Williams in the mix at center.