2022 NFL schedule: The best scheme matchups

The 2022 NFL schedule has finally arrived. The culmination of the off-season, after free agency and the draft, the schedule release day is that last moment when every team truly has hope.

Because over the summer and into the start of the season, things will change. Players will struggle in camp, injuries will creep into the equation, and eventually, games will kick off and losses will mount.

But right now, and over the next few days, every fan base will find a way to talk themselves into ten wins.

The beauty of packaged hope.

Still, now that the schedule is out, we can start to unpack what we will see in the fall. From big games to revenge contests, and everything in between. In this piece, we’ll dive into some of the most-anticipated schematic clashes on the 2022 NFL regular season schedule.

Week 2/Week 11: Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

(AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)

Any time two football-throwing aliens square off, it is worth watching.

And between Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, we have a pair of football-throwing aliens worth tuning in for.

Still, what makes this game fascinating on paper is the matchup between the Chargers’ defensive front, and the Chiefs’ offensive line.

Back in Super Bowl LV, the Chiefs watched as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive front chased Mahomes all over Raymond James Stadium. Compounding the problem was the fact that Tampa Bay was largely able to do that with just four rushers, giving them a numbers advantage in the secondary.

Now look at the Chargers, with the additions of Khalil Mack and Kyle Van Noy this off-season. Los Angeles is built to pressure teams with four, given that Joey Bosa is already in the fold.

Of course, Kansas City did not rest on their laurels after Super Bowl LV. They completely rebuilt that offensive line, rolling out a completely new unit for the 2021 season. That unit helped the Chiefs get to the AFC Championship game, where they were finally stymied by the Cincinnati Bengals and their drop-eight coverages in the second half.

Is that what we will see from Brandon Staley and the Chargers in this meeting? Three-man rush schemes with Bosa and Mack looking to get pressure while securing eight in coverage against the Chiefs and Mahomes?

Thankfully, we will get to see this meeting at least twice next season. The first is in Week 2, and is just one of the games to watch that weekend.

Week 3: Green Bay Packers versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(AP Photo/Mark LoMoglio)

While the headlines in the week leading up to this game will center on the quarterbacks, and whether this will be the final meeting between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, we should remember the recent history between these two teams.

The Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have met twice during the “Tompa Bay” era, with the Buccaneers and Brady coming out on top in both meetings. Tampa Bay blew out the Packers in October of the 2020 season — more on that in a minute — and went into Lambeau Field a few months later and won, advancing to Super Bowl LV.

But it is that regular season meeting that has this contest on the list of best scheme matchups. Why? Because of how Todd Bowles was able to create pressure on Rodgers through somewhat unconventional means. Rodgers finished that game having completed just 16 of 35 passes for 160 yards and a pair of interceptions, in what what was by any account his worst statistical performance of the season.

That game, coupled with the Packers’ struggles in the second half of a win over the Carolina Panthers later in the season, led to the notion that Bowles had put together a blueprint for stopping Rodgers.

One of the interceptions from that meeting highlights just how Bowles was able to confuse Rodgers:

The Bucaners roll out a 1-4-6 package on this play, with Ndamukong Suh the only true defensive lineman in the game. He and pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul are also the only two defenders with their hands in the dirt, as the Buccaneers show six defenders in the box, but it is tough to get a read on who is coming after the quarterback, and who is dropping into coverage.

Tampa Bay brings pressure over the right tackle, blitzing defensive back Sean Murphy-Bunting from depth. Rodgers rushes his throw a bit, and Jamel Dean jumps the route for a Pick-Six the other way.

Bowles has enjoyed success against Rodgers in recent years, thanks to designs like this. Will it continue in 2022?

Week 2: Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

(Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)

For the fifth year in a row, the Titans and the Bills will square off in the regular season. The teams have split those past four meetings, with the Titans winning the two most recent games.

What makes this game a fascinating matchup from a scheme perspective is the Titans’ rushing attack against the Bills’ defensive front. In their meeting last season, Derrick Henry gained 143 yards on 20 carries, and scored three touchdowns, as the Titans won 34-31. A big play early in that contest was this 76-yard touchdown run from Henry to give the Titans a 7-6 lead:

This is a straight-forward inside zone running play, that shows how dangerous Henry is with the ball in his hands, as well as the dangers of trying to defend Henry and the Titans from sub packages. The Bills are in a 4-2-5 nickel package on this play, and prior to the snap they bring safety Jordan Poyer down into the box as their seventh box defender. But wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is able to lock-up Poyer off the edge, and Henry cuts off that block and outruns the defense to the end zone.

Now when you remember that the Titans added Robert Woods, one of the better blocking wide receivers in the NFL, this off-season, plays like this have a chance for hitting again in the year head.

Of course, if the Bills are able to slow down Henry and the running game, that will put renewed focus on the Titans and their passing attack, post-A.J. Brown. Yes the team added Woods and drafted Treylon Burks, but the Bills have perhaps the best safety tandem in the game between Poyer and Micah Hyde, and are getting Tre’Davious White back for the start of the season to go along with rookie first-round selection Kaiir Elam. If the Bills can slow down that rushing attack, the matchup certainly shifts in their favor.

Week 9: Philadelphia Eagles versus Houston Texans

(Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

An undercurrent to this entire piece is the tension between two-high defensive structures, how offenses might look to exploit them, and how defenses could potentially respond.

Which is why this game is on my list of scheme matchups to watch.

On one side of the field you have Lovie Smith, Mr. Cover 2. Smith himself was quick to remind everyone of that fact at the Combine a few months ago:

Of course, the numbers back this up. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Texans faced 150 passing attempts last season when running either Cover 2 or Cover 2 Man Under, which was second-most in the league.

Now, all of this makes their draft selection of Derek Stingley Jr. very intriguing, but that is perhaps a discussion for another time…

In the other corner you have perhaps the modern offense built to force teams out of two-high structures. Over a year ago I put together a piece titled The Future of Offensive Football. It was an effort to try and figure out how offenses will respond to the new two-high, force the offense to run, world we are living in.

Part of the response, I theorized, would be involving the quarterback as a running threat more often. If defenses are going to stay with two-deep safeties and sacrifice numbers in the box, then lean into it and really shift the numbers — and the gaps — in your favor.

Meet Jalen Hurts:

On this play from Wild Card Weekend, the Buccaneers keep two safeties deep. Hurts keeps the football around the left end and has a one-man convoy in the form of Dallas Goedert around the edge. The QB scampers into the secondary before a defender has a chance to make a play on him.

If you, like me, are fascinated by the idea of offenses involving the quarterback as a running threat to get defenses out of two-high looks, then you should have this game circled on your calendar.

Week 12: Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus Cleveland Browns

(Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports)

Back in December of 2018, the New York Jets were struggling. They were 4-9 on the season, and had lost six of their last seven games. A win over rookie quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills gave them their fourth win on the season, but it was clear that time was running out for Jets head coach Todd Bowles.

Their next opponent? The Houston Texans, who despite a loss the week prior entered the week with a 9-4 record of their own. After starting the season with three-straight losses, the Texans looked primed to make a run into the playoffs.

Prior to the game, Bowles had high praise for some of the Texans players, including their quarterback, Deshaun Watson: “Deshaun’s an outstanding player,” Bowles said. “He can beat you from the pocket or he can beat you with his feet. Throws the deep ball well, throws the short ball well. If there’s nothing there, he’s going to be hard to catch because he runs like a halfback.

The Jets hung in against the Texans that day, losing by a final score of 29-22. Watson threw for a pair of touchdown passes, but managed only 26 rushing yards on the afternoon.

They would meet again at the end of the 2019 season, with the Texans again primed to make a playoff run and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where Bowles was the defensive coordinator, sitting below .500. Watson struggled in the Houston win, completing just 19 of 32 passes for 184 yards and an interception, and rushing for just 37 yards on seven carries.

Now Bowles is at the helm of the Buccaneers, and gets another shot at Watson. This play from that 2019 meeting might be a window into how Bowles will approach Watson in this contest:

On this 3rd and 10 play, Bowles uses Devin White as a spy on Watson, and the Buccaneers try and contain the quarterback in the pocket. Watson eventually manages to wriggle free late in the down, but the defense limits him to just a three-yard gain, forcing a field goal try.

I would anticipate seeing a lot of this when these two teams meet in the fall.

Week 13/Week 18: New England Patriots versus Buffalo Bills

(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Divisional games tend to provide fascinating scheme matchups, thanks to the familiarity between the teams. When you meet twice a season, you get some tweaks on both sides of the football the second time around.

Last season, the Patriots and the Bills squared off three times, thanks to their meeting on Wild Card Weekend. In the first of those three meetings, the dominant schematic influence was not designed by man, unless you firmly believe that somewhere in his office, Bill Belichick has a weather-controlling device. On a blustery Monday night in Buffalo, the Patriots were able to top the Bills on a night where Mac Jones threw just three passes. New England lined up with heavy personnel against a Buffalo defense that relied more on sub packages, and rode the running game to the victory.

Of course in the next two meetings, the Bills came away winners. With weather conditions more conducive to throwing the football, Josh Allen was able to pick apart the Patriots, particularly in the playoffs where the Buffalo offense scored touchdowns on all but one possession: Their final possession when Mitchell Trubisky simply ran out the clock.

What will Belichick have in store for Allen when these teams meet again? Will the Patriots, as many expect, truly roll out more zone coverages in the year ahead? Will Belichick roll out more drop-eight coverages next season? After all, according to Sports Info Solutions, the Patriots faced 99 passing attempts with just three rushers last season, tops in the NFL.

And what will we see from the New England offense? Will it be another run-heavy affair, or will Jones take on more of the offensive burden?

Thankfully, we will get at least two meetings from these teams in the year ahead.

Week 13 : Miami Dolphins versus San Francisco 49ers

(AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

There will, of course, be a “revenge game” factor to this meeting between the Miami Dolphins and the San Francisco 49ers. No, not for Super Bowl XIX, but due to the fact that Mike McDaniel will now be prowling the sideline in Miami after his time with the 49ers.

But there is also a fascinating scheme component to this contest. Specifically, the two running games. While we are living in an era of passing, the 49ers in the past few years have rolled out one of the more fascinating rushing attacks. While many associate the outside and wide zone running game with Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers’ rushing attack has been a blend of zone and gap concepts, making them a difficult run game to stop.

One of the things that the 49ers have done well is manufacture extra gaps in the running game. Particularly in an era of two-high defenses, creating additional gaps as an offense puts severe strain on defenses.

Take this run against the Arizona Cardinals:

Now McDaniel is in Miami, where you can expect to see some of the same elements from the Dolphins’ rushing attack.

What makes this game even more fascinating? It could be a battle of the fullbacks. We know how San Francisco relies on Kyle Juszczyk, but remember that Miami signed Alec Ingold this off-season. Could we see two fullbacks deciding an NFL regular season game?

Week 14: Los Angeles Chargers versus Miami Dolphins

(ALLEN EYESTONE / THE PALM BEACH POST)

Brandon Staley found out last season that living in a two-high world and stopping the run is a little more difficult when you do not have world-destroying defensive tackle Aaron Donald prowling the interior of your defensive front.

Last season, the Chargers allowed 142.2 yards rushing per game, third-most in the NFL. They allowed 22 rushing touchdowns, again third-most in the league. Los Angeles also allowed 4.6 yards per rushing attempt, sixth-most in the league.

As you can see from this plot, courtesy of RBSDM.com, the Chargers were among the worst defenses in the league in terms of expected points added per rushing play on defense:

Now, there are some new faces along the Chargers’ defensive front, most notably Khalil Mack and Kyle Van Noy, and they also added J.C. Jackson to the secondary. But if the Chargers are going to remain a heavy two-high team, they will need to find ways to stop the run when they might be out-gapped up front.

Which is what makes this game interesting from a schematic standpoint.

New Miami head coach Mike McDaniel has spent the bulk of his coaching career alongside Kyle Shanahan, and the past few years in San Francisco the 49ers’ rushing attack was quite adept at stealing extra gaps in the running game thanks to movement, motion and formations.

Take, for example, this run against the Indianapolis Colts from Week 7:

Elijah Mitchell follows the block of Kyle Juszczyk to the right side for a gain of 25 yards. Indianapolis, on this play, is in a two-high defensive structure, and you can see how the 49ers create extra gaps with the use of the fullback.

Remember, the Dolphins signed Alec Ingold in free agency back in March…

This meeting could be a true test of how well Staley’s two-high structures can stop the run, or whether we see more single-high from the Chargers in 2022. Because if the Chargers can slow down the Miami rushing attack, that could put the game on the left shoulder of Tua Tagovailoa against that imposing pass rush and improved secondary.

Which could lead to more memes on social media.

Week 16: Cincinnati Bengals versus Buffalo Bills

(Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports)

Last season, the Cincinnati Bengals were one of a few teams that turned to drop-eight coverages in the secondary to give themselves a true numbers advantage downfield. The Bengals, according to charting data from Sports Info Solutions, faced 64 passing attempts with eight defenders in coverage last season, fourth-most in the NFL.

This was most apparent in the AFC Championship Game. As Cincinnati came back against the Kansas City Chiefs in the second half, they relied heavily on these coverages to force Patrick Mahomes to remain patient and settle for checkdowns. On perhaps the biggest play of the game, a sack before the end of regulation, the Bengals dropped eight into coverage and Mahomes ran out of options:

The numbers tell the story from that second half:

Now, it is an extremely small sample size, but last year against defenses that rushed three or fewer defenders, Josh Allen fared quite well. On those 34 passing attempts, Allen completed 25 of them for 273 yards and five touchdowns, against a pair of interceptions.

Do the Bengals rely on drop-eight coverages against Allen? Or do they play him more straight-up? We will see.

Week 1: Los Angeles Rams versus Buffalo Bills

(Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports)

Despite of its place on the schedule, serving as the traditional season-opener with the defending Super Bowl Champions opening up at home, I cheated a bit and listed this meeting last.

Why?

Because it could be a Super Bowl preview.

The Los Angeles Rams enter the 2022 season as not just defending Super Bowl Champions, but also as one of the teams many look to as favorites in the NFC, along with the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

As for the Buffalo Bills, while the AFC looks to be a loaded conference, many point to the Bills as the most complete team on paper.

Here is a fun game that came up recently in the group chat: Try and predict what teams in the AFC get into the playoffs, and who is out. The catch? If you get one wrong, you lose. What teams are you certain about in the AFC right now? In terms of teams that get in, perhaps the Bills are the only team you might guarantee are in at the moment.

Hence, a potential Super Bowl preview.

As such, this game will certainly be one to study when it is over. How do the Rams look to defend Allen? How will the Bills try and slow down Matthew Stafford and company? Do we see lots of drop-eight coverages like the Bengals and other teams tried against Stafford last season, or will the Bills rely on their stout secondary to hold their own? How do the Rams look to contain Allen’s athleticism? Will the Bills find a way to run the football consistently this season on the whole, and against Aaron Donald and company in particular? Will the potential matchup of Taron Johnson versus Cooper Kupp be the one to watch, or will Leslie Frazier take Tre’Davious White and isolate him on Kupp?

There are no shortage of potential storylines to this meeting. And maybe, just maybe, we will get to see it twice.

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