2022 NBA draft race: April 3 update for Rockets, Nets picks
With Houston owning one of the NBA’s worst records, the 2022 playoffs are no longer an option for the Rockets. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty to still watch for in the final two weeks of the 2021-22 season.
From now until the regular season’s conclusion on Sunday, April 10, we’re updating where the Rockets stand in relation to their closest competitors in the race for 2022 NBA draft lottery odds and positioning.
Houston owns two picks in this year’s first round: Their own, and one from Brooklyn. For purposes of these updates, we’re going to focus on teams (at the time of publication) within three games in either direction of both the Rockets and Nets in the standings.
After a second straight season at the bottom of the West, will the Rockets land another elite prospect such as Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith or Paolo Banchero for their troubles? Scroll on for the latest updates as of April 3, along with information on odds and tiebreaker scenarios.
East standings
8. Atlanta 41-37
9. Charlotte 40-38
10. Brooklyn 40-38Nets win tiebreaker vs Hawks but lose tiebreaker vs Hornets
— Adam Spolane (@AdamSpolane) April 3, 2022
Saturday’s most relevant games (April 2)
It is beneficial to the eventual landing spot of both picks for teams in proximity to Houston and Brooklyn in the standings to win. The reverse is true when it comes to each team’s results, since the best-case outcomes for draft odds and slots arise from having a worse record.
With that in mind, here are the teams to focus on, as of April 3.
Teams within three games of Houston: Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder
Teams within three games of Brooklyn (either overall or in loss column): Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Los Angeles Clippers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Minnesota Timberwolves
Saturday’s games involving any of those teams:
76ers 144, Hornets 114
Cavaliers 119, Knicks 101
Hawks 122, Nets 115
Sunday’s most relevant games (April 3)
Teams within three games of Houston: Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder
Teams within three games of Brooklyn (either overall or in loss column): Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Los Angeles Clippers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday’s games involving any of those teams:
Pistons at Pacers (4 p.m. CDT tipoff)
76ers at Cavaliers (5 p.m. CDT)
Knicks at Magic (5 p.m. CDT)
Timberwolves at Rockets (6 p.m. CDT)
Suns at Thunder (6 p.m. CDT)
Pelicans at Clippers (8:30 p.m. CDT)
Updated April 3 standings for Houston’s pick
Houston’s current draft placement plus teams within three games:
1. Houston, 20-58 (tie)
1. Orlando, 20-58 (tie)
3. Detroit, 22-56
4. Oklahoma City, 22-55
Between Houston’s loss Friday and another Detroit win, the Rockets now have at least two games of separation versus all NBA teams except Orlando. Only four games are left to play for the top three teams.
What happens if the Rockets and Magic finish tied? More on that later.
If both teams lose out, they will finish tied for the worst record. Lottery odds are the same for both (52.1% chance at a top-4 pick), but a random draw tiebreaker would determine which team's remaining odds are:
5th pick: 47.9%
— OR —
5th pick: 27.8%
6th pick: 20.1%— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) April 2, 2022
Updated April 3 standings for Brooklyn’s pick
Brooklyn’s current draft placement plus teams within three games (either overall or in the loss column):
13. Brooklyn (lottery), 40-38
14. Charlotte (lottery), 40-38
15. Clippers, 38-40
16. Atlanta, 41-37
17. Cleveland, 43-35
18. Minnesota, 44-34
After losing Saturday in Atlanta, the Nets are now locked into the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. If they stay at No. 10, they would need to win two road play-in games to make the playoffs — otherwise, they would hand a lottery pick in the 2022 NBA draft to Houston.
Brooklyn LOSES to Atlanta! They can no longer escape the play-in tournament!
CHA lost. CLE won. ATL is 8th. CHA (9th) & BKN (10th) are tied with 4 games left.
The BKN pick is now technically a lottery pick (tied #13/#14) but that is only determined by results of the play-in.
— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) April 3, 2022
Draft lottery odds, without ties
This chart applies to Houston’s pick, as well as Brooklyn’s if it misses the Eastern Conference playoffs. The NBA’s current lottery system involving the 14 non-playoff teams draws for the first four picks by weighted odds (with the worst teams having better odds), and the 10 teams who are not drawn are then slotted by record from No. 5 to No. 14.
Note that while the top-four odds are identical for the bottom-three teams, there is a significant difference when it comes to floor scenarios. The team with the worst record cannot fall below No. 5 overall. The team with the third-worst record can drop to the No. 7 pick.
There are now 4 slots instead of 3 that are being drawn for. But there are the percentages without ties from @tankathon pic.twitter.com/aMsyhFXOU8
— Bulls Scripted (@BullScripted) November 3, 2018
(via Tankathon)
Frequently asked questions
What happens if there is a tie? Tied lottery teams split their draft lottery odds evenly. For example, if Houston and Oklahoma City tie for the No. 3 seed, or the third-worst record, the combined odds between No. 3 and No. 4 would then be split down the middle. Consider it 3.5.
However, a random coin flip would also be held to determine which team drafts higher in scenarios where neither team is a lottery winner. Head-to-head results between any tied teams are not considered.
What happens if Brooklyn goes on a deep playoff run out of a low seed? This is a fair question, since part of Brooklyn’s underwhelming season is due to widespread injuries, along with only having Kyrie Irving as a part-time player due to New York City’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate. It’s possible some or all of those problems might be resolved by the playoffs, making the Nets more dangerous than their record suggests.
However, unlike the NFL, results in the playoffs cannot change a team’s draft spot in the NBA. Even if the Nets were to somehow win the NBA championship out of the No. 8 seed, their draft pick (headed to Houston) would be solely based on their regular-season record.
Remaining strength of schedule, as of April 3
Having a top strength-of-schedule number means that particular team has a harder remaining schedule, which on paper suggests that they are more likely to lose games. If that occurs, it could lead to superior draft positioning in a race with competitors who have easier schedules.
Rockets and teams within three games:
Houston: No. 8 in the NBA
Detroit: No. 9
Orlando: No. 10
Oklahoma City: No. 13
Nets and teams within three games:
Charlotte: No. 20
Atlanta: No. 21
Clippers: No. 22
Brooklyn: No. 30
Cleveland: No. 16
Minnesota: No. 27
(via Tankathon)
Next three Rockets, Nets games, as of April 3
Houston: Minnesota (home, 4/3), Brooklyn (road, 4/5), Toronto (road, 4/8)
Brooklyn: Houston (home, 4/5), New York (road, 4/6), Cleveland (home, 4/8)
This post originally appeared on Rockets Wire. Follow us on Facebook!
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