2022 NBA draft lottery race: April 4 update for Rockets, Nets picks
With Houston owning one of the NBA’s worst records, the 2022 playoffs are no longer an option for the Rockets. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty to still watch for in the final week of the 2021-22 season.
From now until the regular season’s conclusion on Sunday, April 10, we’re updating where the Rockets stand in relation to their closest competitors in the race for 2022 NBA draft lottery odds and positioning.
Houston owns two picks in this year’s first round: Their own, and one from Brooklyn. For purposes of these updates, we’re going to focus on teams (at the time of publication) within three games in either direction of both the Rockets and Nets in the standings.
After a second straight season at the bottom of the West, will the Rockets land another elite prospect such as Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith or Paolo Banchero for their troubles? Scroll on for the latest updates as of April 4, along with information on odds and tiebreaker scenarios.
Editor’s note: There are no NBA games on Monday due to the NCAA’s Division 1 national championship game in college basketball. The next update in this series will come Tuesday night.
Lottery Race Update: Houston, Orlando operate like never-oiled machines, Indiana gets its first signature loss of the year while the Presti Plan backfires with unfathomable triumph. Standings:
1. Orlando 20-59
1. Houston 20-59
3. Detroit 23-56
4. OKC 23-55
5. Indiana 25-54— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) April 4, 2022
Sunday’s most relevant games (April 3)
It is beneficial to the eventual landing spot of both picks for teams in proximity to Houston and Brooklyn in the standings to win. The reverse is true when it comes to each team’s results, since the best-case outcomes for draft odds and slots arise from having a worse record.
With that in mind, here are the teams to focus on, as of April 4.
Teams within three games of Houston: Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder
Teams within three games of Brooklyn (either overall or in loss column): Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Los Angeles Clippers, Cleveland Cavaliers
Sunday’s games involving any of those teams:
Pistons 121, Pacers 117
76ers 112, Cavaliers 108
Knicks 118, Magic 88
Timberwolves 139, Rockets 132
Thunder 117, Suns 96
Clippers 119, Pelicans 100
Tuesday’s most relevant games (April 5)
Teams within three games of Houston: Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder
Teams within three games of Brooklyn (either overall or in loss column): Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Los Angeles Clippers, Cleveland Cavaliers
Tuesday’s games involving any of those teams:
Cavaliers at Magic (6 p.m. CDT tipoff)
Rockets at Nets (6:30 p.m. CDT)
Hornets at Heat (6:30 p.m. CDT)
Hawks at Raptors (6:30 p.m. CDT)
Trail Blazers at Thunder (7 p.m. CDT)
Updated April 4 standings for Houston’s pick
Houston’s current draft placement plus teams within three games:
1. Houston, 20-59 (tie)
1. Orlando, 20-59 (tie)
3. Detroit, 23-56
4. Oklahoma City, 23-55
With a three-game gap in the win column with only three left to play, the Rockets and Magic are nearly locked in with the top two odds slots, which would guarantee a pick floor of no worse than No. 6 overall.
What happens if the Rockets and Magic finish tied? More on that later.
The Rockets only need to lose one of their final three games to guarantee that their pick will not be worse than #6.
They will almost assuredly need to go 0-3 to have any chance at locking in top-5. https://t.co/cSYgSzJX5a
— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) April 4, 2022
Updated April 4 standings for Brooklyn’s pick
Brooklyn’s current draft placement plus teams within three games (either overall or in the loss column):
13. Brooklyn (lottery), 40-38
14. Charlotte (lottery), 40-38
15. Clippers, 39-40
16. Atlanta, 41-37
17. Cleveland, 43-36
After losing Saturday in Atlanta, the Nets are now locked into the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. If they stay at No. 10, they would need to win two road play-in games to make the playoffs — otherwise, they would hand a lottery pick in the 2022 NBA draft to Houston.
Cavs were so close tonight but lost in Philly. That would've been big. Remaining schedules:
Cavs: at ORL, at BKN, MIL
Nets: HOU, at NYK, CLE, IND
We need 2 of any combination of Cavs wins or Nets losses for CLE to finish over BKN. Cavs will beat ORL, but after that?
— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) April 4, 2022
Draft lottery odds, without ties
This chart applies to Houston’s pick, as well as Brooklyn’s if it misses the Eastern Conference playoffs. The NBA’s current lottery system involving the 14 non-playoff teams draws for the first four picks by weighted odds (with the worst teams having better odds), and the 10 teams who are not drawn are then slotted by record from No. 5 to No. 14.
Note that while the top-four odds are identical for the bottom-three teams, there is a significant difference when it comes to floor scenarios. The team with the worst record cannot fall below No. 5 overall. The team with the third-worst record can drop to the No. 7 pick.
There are now 4 slots instead of 3 that are being drawn for. But there are the percentages without ties from @tankathon pic.twitter.com/aMsyhFXOU8
— Bulls Scripted (@BullScripted) November 3, 2018
(via Tankathon)
Frequently asked questions
What happens if there is a tie? Tied lottery teams split their draft lottery odds evenly. For example, if Houston and Oklahoma City tie for the No. 3 seed, or the third-worst record, the combined odds between No. 3 and No. 4 would then be split down the middle. Consider it 3.5.
However, a random coin flip would also be held to determine which team drafts higher in scenarios where neither team is a lottery winner. Head-to-head results between any tied teams are not considered.
What happens if Brooklyn goes on a deep playoff run out of a low seed? This is a fair question, since part of Brooklyn’s underwhelming season is due to widespread injuries, along with only having Kyrie Irving as a part-time player due to New York City’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate. It’s possible some or all of those problems might be resolved by the playoffs, making the Nets more dangerous than their record suggests.
However, unlike the NFL, results in the playoffs cannot change a team’s draft spot in the NBA. Even if the Nets were to somehow win the NBA championship out of the No. 8 seed, their draft pick (headed to Houston) would be solely based on their regular-season record.
Remaining strength of schedule, as of April 4
Having a top strength-of-schedule number means that particular team has a harder remaining schedule, which on paper suggests that they are more likely to lose games. If that occurs, it could lead to superior draft positioning in a race with competitors who have easier schedules.
Rockets and teams within three games:
Houston: No. 10 in the NBA
Detroit: No. 2
Orlando: No. 8
Oklahoma City: No. 25
Nets and teams within three games:
Charlotte: No. 20
Atlanta: No. 21
Clippers: No. 18
Brooklyn: No. 28
Cleveland: No. 23
(via Tankathon)
Next three Rockets, Nets games, as of April 4
Houston: Brooklyn (road, 4/5), Toronto (road, 4/8), Atlanta (home, 4/10)
Brooklyn: Houston (home, 4/5), New York (road, 4/6), Cleveland (home, 4/8)
This post originally appeared on Rockets Wire. Follow us on Facebook!
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