2020-21 Rockets roster review, offseason outlook: Eric Gordon
Rockets Player: Eric Gordon, 6-foot-3 guard, 32 years old
2020-21 statistics in Houston: 17.8 points (43.3% FG, 32.9% on 3-pointers), 2.6 assists in 29.2 minutes per game
Professional Experience: 13 NBA seasons
Contract Status: Signed through at least 2022-23, will make $18.2 million next season
Gordon’s contract terms are friendlier to his team than it might first appear. The 2023-24 season is non-guaranteed and only activates if Gordon makes an All-Star team, or if his team wins the NBA title. The first scenario is practically impossible, at this point in his career, and the second is extremely unlikely (to put it mildly) with the rebuilding Rockets.
It could become a factor if Gordon is traded to a contender — but in that second scenario, it inherently means that his team just landed the massive financial windfall of winning a championship. That’s a “problem” that any NBA owner would love to have. Thus, for planning purposes, Gordon should be looked at as an expiring contract in 2022-23.
Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uJLC0poxSw [lawrence-related id=49470,49220]
Analysis
Having joined Houston in 2016, Gordon is by far the longest-tenured member of the rebuilding Rockets. Yet, despite his advanced age by NBA standards, he offers much more than simply a familiar face to fans. After undergoing knee surgery during the 2019-20 season, Gordon was clearly a more explosive player on drives in 2020-21, which can be seen in his career-high clip of 57.3% on two-pointers. He remains an impact player defensively, as evidenced by his high placement in defensive ratings. Overall, Gordon is a valuable veteran role player who offers two-way production. When healthy, he believes he's an elite 3-point shooter, as well, which he's shown at times over his 13 NBA seasons. That's the good news. The bad news is that a Grade 2 groin strain ended his season after just 27 games. Similar to John Wall, the value of Gordon’s on-court flashes are tempered by persistent health concerns. Of Houston's 144 games over the last two regular seasons, Gordon has only played in 63 of them (43.8%). While the knee problems from 2019-20 were surgically repaired, and the right groin strain from 2020-21 will be given ample time to heal, it's fair to be concerned about the likely availability of a 32-year-old who hasn't been able to consistently stay on the floor for the Rockets since the 2018-19 season.
Outlook
Gordon turns 33 years old later this year, which means he's unlikely to be a key contributor by the time that the rebuilding Rockets are ready to contend for an NBA title again. Combine that reality with a salary of nearly $20 million per season, and general manager Rafael Stone isn't going to want to curtail future financial flexibility to keep Gordon around. It's almost a certainty that Gordon will be traded before his contract expires (likely in 2023). The question is when the best time will be. Stone would likely be open to trading Gordon in the 2021 offseason, but it's unclear whether Gordon will have positive trade value, since he would still have at least two full years of salary left and is coming off another serious injury. If teams want sweetener (i.e. a future draft asset) to take on Gordon's deal at this time, it probably isn't worth it to the Rockets, since the 2021 class of free agents isn't particularly strong. They could wait to trade Gordon until the 2022 offseason, when he'll largely be looked at as an expiring contract. Yet, that would limit any hope of a substantial trade return, since Gordon would be another year older and with only one year of contractual control by his new team. It would be similar to when Houston dealt PJ Tucker to Milwaukee in March. The sweet spot might be waiting until closer to the 2021-22 trade deadline next February. In this scenario, more than half of Gordon's salary for the 2021-22 season would already be paid off, yet the acquiring team would still have him for two seasons worth of playoff runs — which is what matters most to a contender. Gordon would also have an opportunity to show that he's healthy early in 2021-22 with the Rockets, which could lead to a mutually beneficial scenario of Gordon giving himself more options and Houston having a better path to a positive trade return. Yet, that scenario also carries risk. What if Gordon doesn't play well, or even worse, picks up another injury? There's no easy answer for Stone, and it will be one of the crucial decisions early in his tenure. [listicle id=49660]
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