15 top-100 prospects Cowboys almost assuredly won’t pick in 2022 NFL draft
When it comes to rules of engagement, most brains focus on conflict resolution. But when it comes to the Dallas Cowboys it’s more about whether or not the club will engage in a free agency discussion with, or draft, a specific player.
By this point, fans have reached the acceptance level of the 12 steps when it comes to Dallas’ offseason. The bargaining is over and admitting it is what it is will be paramount to getting excited for the upcoming season. That excitement will be boosted exponentially at the end of the month when the Cowboys do their one really good offseason process, the draft. The Cowboys have been able to identify top targets and routinely come away with great draft hauls because they follow a set of rules. Those rules, the Cowboys 10 Draft Commandments, hone in on the pre-draft thinking of the org in how they build their boards and who gets shoved down.
One Commandment in particular eliminates prospects from Dallas’ process, at least for the first few rounds. “Thou shalt not covet small-school players.”
Dallas will rarely pick a player from a school that doesn’t engage in big-time competition. Player personnel director Will McClay was very frank about needing prospects who have walked through in the fire. The glitz and glamour of playing in the Cowboys’ bubble, on top of the tall task of NFL competition, requires a certain level of fortification.
Dallas leans heavily on prospects who played at Power 5 conference schools, and will only consider prospects from Group of 5 conferences if they like what they see pre-draft, up close and personal.
Looking over The Draft Network’s Top 100 prospects, there’s a myriad of names Cowboys fans would love to see in Dallas. But they most likely aren’t in the cards.
Why are visits and private workouts imperative
Over the last 10 drafts, from 2012 through 2021, the Cowboys have selected just 11 players in Rounds 1 through Round 4 who didn’t arrive from Power 5 (SEC, B1G, Big 12, Pac 12, ACC) conferences.
The majority of guys on the trimmed-down list, Dallas either invited to Texas for an official 30 pre-draft visit, or Dallas conducted a private workout with. They did their due diligence. If the Cowboys are going to draft someone they aren’t intimately familiar with, they are going to arrive from a big school where intel is easy to come by.
When Dallas doesn’t work out non-Power 5 prospects? Disaster happens.
The scouting staff has a lot of influence on which players are selected. They do the dirty work, taking the coaching staffs’ position profiles and going out and identifying prospects who they think will fit.
But the 30 visits and private workouts give the coaching staff a chance to see and meet those prospects in person. Consider it a second, more interactive part of a job’s screening process.
A recruiter might love a candidate’s resume and that initial conversation might go well, but if the hiring manager and department head don’t get a chance to feel the candidate out and the hire is made anyway? That’s a big yikes in the HR process.
The coaching staff has to have a chance to identify if they can help mold that prospect, because not every staff is equipped to coach up every aspect of a young player. Not every prospect, despite scout’s best efforts, can marry those sides together.
The Reggie Robinson example
Tulsa defensive back Reggie Robinson is the most recent and perfect example. Robinson has talent, but the Cowboys’ coaching staff had no idea how to use him.
Tulsa is in the American Athletic Conference, a Group of 5 conference also known as a mid-major. Dallas doesn’t avoid mid-majors, they take a couple guys from there every year. But when they take them in Round 4 or better, they’ve normally done their homework.
Robinson wasn’t a pre-draft visitor and although admittedly harder to collect confirmation on, wasn’t listed as someone who was there on a private visit.
He was released earlier this offseason, after barely seeing the field. Robinson’s landed with the Houston Texans in hope they can find a role for him.
It’s s story seen a few times over the previous 10 years. But Dallas almost always does their due diligence on the non-Power 5 prospects. The times they haven’t, they’ve been burnt.
10 years of evidence
2020
DB Reggie Robinson, Tulsa (AAC – Group of 5), 4th round. Never listed as a visit or private workout.
2019
RB Tony Pollard, Memphis (AAC – Group of 5), 4th round. Pollard was among the club’s 30 visits
2018
WR Michael Gallup, Colorado State (Mountain West – Group of 5), 3rd round. The Cowboys conducted a private workout.
DT Trysten Hill, Central Florida (American Athletic Conference – Group of 5), 2nd round. Hill was a 30 visitor, and was drafted for Rod Marinelli. He hasn’t worked out as of yet.
LB Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State (Mountain West – Group of 5), 1st round. Vander Esch was a 30 visitor and was a Pro Bowler as a rookie.
2014
DE DeMarcus Lawrence, Boise State (Mountain West – Group of 5), 2nd round. Lawrence was a 30 visit and is a two-time Pro Bowler.
2013
TE Gavin Escobar, San Diego State (Mountain West – Group of 5), 2nd round. Escobar was not a 30 visitor and not listed as a private workout.
Safety JJ Wilcox, Georgia Southern (Sun Belt – Group of 5) 3rd round. Wilcox was a 30 visitor, started several games as a rookie and was in the lineup fulltime by Year 2.
CB BW Webb, William and Mary (Colonial Athletic Association – Other), 4th round. Webb was neither a 30 visitor or a noted private workout.
2012
DE Tyrone Crawford, Boise State (Mountain West – Group of 5), 2nd round.
Safety Matt Johnson, Eastern Washington(Big Sky – Other) , 4th round.
In 2012, the visit list was not fully disclosed and only 20 of the 30 prospects were identified.
15 Prospects Dallas more-than-likely is out on
The evidence is clear. When it comes to a player in the third round or earlier, Dallas has brought in the guy for a 30 visit or conducted a private workout, at least since 2013. Gavin Escobar wasn’t on their radar and the result of picking him seems to have sent Dallas into a shell in this scenario. They double-dipped at cornerback in 2020 after selecting Trevon Diggs, and were burnt in the fourth round by the Robinson selection.
This was on the heels of being burnt in 2013 (again) by the BW Webb pick, although Webb eventually developed into a rotational player who stuck in the league for several years. The small-school guy sandwiched between them was Wilcox, who was a 30 visitor and panned out.
So here’s the compilation of prospects Dallas would have to stray from their template to consider.
WR Skyy Moore, Western Michigan
Western Michigan wide receiver Skyy Moore.
WMU is in the MAC conference, a group of 5. There’s even buzz Moore could be a first-round consideration, but with no 30 visit or private workout on record, the Cowboys are likely out on him.
OT Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Penning (Missouri Valley, other) has been mocked to Dallas in the first round by a couple high-profile national folks, because there is rumored interest. But in the first? If Penning goes that high, it would shock me into a coma if that team was Dallas.
OT Tyler Smith, Tulsa
Tulsa Golden Hurricane offensive lineman Tyler Smith
The Cowboys have recently been burned at the Tulsa (Group of 5) alter, and as we see with other schools- they tend to stay away, so Smith is likely out, too.
WR Christian Watson, North Dakota State
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Watson might seem like a perfect second-round candidate, but Missouri Valley isn’t getting love in Dallas.
TE Isaiah Likely, Coastal Carolina
Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports
The Sun Belt Conference is a Group of 5 conference and Likely was one of the Cowboys more mysterious Combine meetings. However, they didn’t bring him in for a 30 visit, which normally rules out a prospect like this in the first three rounds, where Likely is likely to go.
WR Calvin Austin III, Memphis
Memphis Tigers receiver Calvin Austin III
Austin checks a lot of boxes the Cowboys should like, including being a Senior Bowl participant. They’ve dove into Memphis (Group of 5) before, most recently with Tony Pollard, but Pollard was a 30 visit. They haven’t shown any noted interest in Austin, so he’s likely going to be a slot demon for another team.
OT Dylan Parham, Memphis
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Parham is an intriguing tackle option who should go on Day 2, but again, no pre-draft interest shown by the Cowboys most likely leaves lower on the board than he’s projected to be selected.
Edge Logan Hall, Houston
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Expected to be a Top 45 pick, Hall could even sneak into the back end of the first round, but with no pre-draft interest shown by the Cowboys for the American Athletic Conference standout, he likely won’t be a name attached to Dallas.
DT Travis Jones, UConn
(AP Photo/Butch Dill)
If the Cowboys are going big-body early, it will most likely be because Jordan Davis (Georgia) miraculously slid to them in the first round. The only other 1-tech/NT likely to go on the first two days is Davis, and UConn (Group of 5) isn’t a win for him with no pre-draft interest shown.
LB Chad Muma, Wyoming
Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Muma is Dan Brugler’s fourth-rated LB and should be a star picked early on Day 2, but with no pre-draft interest shown, the Mountain West standout won’t likely be making his way to Texas.
Edge Cameron Thomas, San Diego State
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The Cowboys haven’t returned to the San Diego State well since Escobar and the Mountain West isn’t likely to get a redo here as there was no pre-draft visit.
Edge Tariq Woolen, UT-San Antonio
Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports
The Conference USA (Group of 5) star is expected to go in the second round, third at the latest, and that would be the sweet spot for Dallas if they didn’t have their filters in place. But alas, he wasn’t a part of their pre-draft process so unless they diverge from protocol in 2022, he’s a no go.
LB Troy Andersen, Montana State
AP Photo/Butch Dill)
One of the most athletic linebackers in recent memory and a Senior Bowl participant, one would think the Cowboys would have plenty interest here, but the Big Sky isn’t even a Group of 5 conference, so the competition level just isn’t there. Andersen hasn’t been sniffed at by the Cowboys, so despite his immense ceiling, it looks unlikely he’ll make his way to Dallas.
CB Marcus Jones, Houston
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Another Houston Cougar who the Cowboys should have in-state info on, but the AAC has always been no-go in the early rounds without a visit.
IOL Cole Strange, Tenn-Chattanooga
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Strange can play both guard and center in the NFL. He has a slightly higher chance of making it to the Cowboys as they at least showed interest with a combine meeting. However the Southern Conference isn’t even a Group of 5 and with no 30 visit follow-up, it seems an uphill climb to connect Strange to Dallas.
The One small-school guy they would take early
(AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Bernhard Raimann of Central Michigan (MAC) is one of the team’s 30 official visitors and is seen as a first-round tackle. He may even be outside of the Cowboys’ range.
Raimann is Brugler’s fifth-rated guy at the position and if Dallas liked what they saw and heard, he could be a trade back or second-round trade up guy for them.
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