10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread Week 3
10 best predictions for the big Saturday of college football. What games appear to be the best bets and best picks for Week 3’s games?
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I somehow survived last week and all the craziness.
Did I take Alabama to roll past Texas? Yup.
Did I misfire all over the place on the picks for the site’s game previews? Compared to Week 1 and Week 0, big time.
Was I lazy to just assume Kansas would keep being Kansas against the spread? Oh yeah.
But I still went 70%, so as I tell you all of the time after a solid streak, pick a lane – either I’m totally on my game in a blind-squirrel-finds-nut sort of way, or FADE HARD NOW because I’m way overdue for a whiff.
With that said, be careful with some of these – like No. 5 on this list. Let’s ease into it with …
Results So Far: 22-8-1
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10. Arkansas Pine-Bluff at Oklahoma State
LINE Oklahoma State -57.5
ATS PICK Arkansas Pine-Bluff
If you’re a regular reading this, you know how it rolls.
You know that over the long haul, if you lead a good, clean life and do things the right way – pay your fair share of taxes, drive the speed limit, put the toilet seat down, and ALWAYS take the underdog when getting 50 or more – you’ll come out ahead.
Last week, you walked into Michigan Stadium up 52-0.
Michigan 56, Hawaii 10.
Even when Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State kept going against SE Louisiana to start the 2016 season the final score of 61-7 wasn’t covering the 57.5.
Even when the Cowboys took out Lamar 59-3 in 2013 they didn’t get to the line set for UAPB.
Of course Oklahoma State could win this 83-0. Of course it’s silly to invest in any sort of FCS vs FBS game.
But you – along with the Golden Lions – are about to walk into Boone Pickens effectively up 58-0.
You thank the gods for the opportunity, and you go about your day.
Speaking of Michigan …
9. UConn at Michigan
LINE Michigan -47.5
ATS PICK UConn
I will totally admit that I got squeamish over the Hawaii call over Michigan ATS, but it worked.
I’m buckling a little bit on this one, too – 47.5 ain’t 50 – but there seems to be a limit to how much the Wolverines like to thrash teams.
It put up 51 on Colorado State, and it hung 56 on Hawaii, but in both games the machine slowed down.
The question here is whether or not UConn is going to put any points on the board. All you’re looking for is one score, and that might be enough.
Head coach Jim Mora Jr. is doing an okay job so far – there’s a running game, and last week in the 48-14 loss to Syracuse, the passing attack actually worked.
Michigan will win easily, but again, you’re just looking for ONE UConn score – even something like 52-6 gets this for you.
8. Colorado at Minnesota
POINT TOTAL 46.5
ATS PICK Over
It’s the tried and true belief when it comes to relatively low college overs.
Can one side take care of it all by itself? In this case, maybe.
Colorado has been absolutely miserable so far giving up 38 at home to TCU and 41 up the road at Air Force. In both games the two teams easily got past 47 points.
The concern is that Minnesota slams the door shut on the Buffs – like the 30-0 win last year – and coming up with just 38 points against New Mexico State is a tad concerning. However, the Gophers should get to at least 30 here, and closer to 40.
The Gopher D has been great against two bad teams – Colorado should be able to put a few points on the board to help the cause. There’s a shot you might not need them.
On the opposite end is …
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7. Nevada at Iowa
POINT TOTAL 39.5
ATS PICK Under
This is totally obscene.
You don’t go under on 39.5. OF COURSE YOU DON’T. However, until Iowa proves it can score, you keep riding this train until it stops.
If the Hawkeyes figure it out and hang 55 on the board, you tip your cap and go on your way. However, considering their two games so far have combined to see a total of 27 points, you’re insane to not give this one more try.
Nevada’s offense was fine against New Mexico State, Texas State, and Incarnate Word, but there’s a strong chance it doesn’t score against the Hawkeye D – or, it at least doesn’t do a whole lot more than 10ish or so.
6. Tulane at Kansas State
LINE Kansas State -14
ATS PICK Kansas State
Wow did this drop like a rock.
It started out with Kansas State -19 and then the world hammered the hell out of the Green Wave.
Here’s the issue. Tulane has looked fantastic so far, but that’s partly because it played UMass and Alcorn State. The team was bad in 2021, and now it’s all of a sudden back to being potentially bowl worthy?
Maybe, but Kansas State has been too sharp and too fabulous so far at home, beating South Dakota and Missouri by a combined score of 74-12. The running game should work fine against the Green Wave front that gave up 200 rushing yards to UMass.
There Wildcats were good enough to beat Mizzou by 28 …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 5: FCSapalooza
5. Missouri State at Arkansas, Wofford at Virginia Tech, Abilene Christian at Missouri
LINE Arkansas -23, Virginia Tech -38, Missouri -34.5
ATS PICK Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Missouri
As I told you last week, I HATE FBS vs FCS GAMES, especially now.
The problem is that almost all of the FBS teams should beat the FCSers by a gajillion, and then they sort of stop trying after 2.5 quarters, or they try testing something out, or the coaching staff goes against historical precedent.
Case in point, last week I told y’all to go Southern Utah +45.5 over Utah, and why? Ute coach Kyle Whittingham usually pulls up relatively early and coasts against the FCSers after getting up big.
Utah 73, Southern Utah 7.
FBS vs FCS games against the spread are SO flaky, and you should avoid them no matter what. However, this is a dangerous case of me being more mad if these are right and I don’t go with them, then these being wrong if I do – if that makes any sense.
With that in mind …
Missouri State and head coach Bobby Petrino are okay, but the lines aren’t there, and Arkansas -23 isn’t a lot to ask against its old coach.
Wofford has yet to score this season, losing to Chattanooga and Elon by a combined score of 57-0. Virginia Tech’s defense has been terrific, and the O should get past 38.
Missouri and head coach Eliah Drinkwitz really, really, really, really, really, really need a blowout win. Abilene Christian doesn’t have a strong enough offense.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 4: UCF at Florida Atlantic
4. UCF at Florida Atlantic
LINES UCF -8
ATS PICK UCF
This is what we call a puzzle piece game.
Florida Atlantic has some playmakers. QB N’Kosi Perry is ripping it up, and the running game has been great, but don’t get too carried away.
The Owls looked great in the blowout win over Charlotte to start the season, but as it tuned out, Charlotte is awful.
Just when it seemed like Willie Taggart’s club had something, it couldn’t come close to stopping Ohio’s offense in a 41-38 Bobcat win. Last week, beating SE Louisiana was easy.
Yes, it’s a road game for UCF, and no, you don’t just walk onto Howard Schnellenberger Field at FAU Stadium and assume anything.
UCF lost to Louisville, but the running game worked, the defense was solid in the 20-14 battle, and overall the team has the parts there to get through this without a problem.
So to put together the pieces, FAU a tad overrated by the lines because of good performances against bad teams, and UCF is a tad underrated because it lost at home to a team that got trucked by Syracuse.
No player on either team knows or cares what happened a few years ago, but for what it’s worth, UCF 56, Florida Atlantic 36 in 2018, and UCF 48, Florida Atlantic 14 in 2019.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 3 Kansas at Houston
3. Kansas at Houston
POINT TOTAL 57.5
ATS PICK Over
Are we supposed to believe Kansas is good at college football now?
All it did was start the season scoring 56 against Tennessee Tech, and followed that up with a 55-42 win at West Virginia.
And we’re supposed to believe that the team that hung up 50+ over the last two weeks can’t at least help the cause to get past 57.5?
Granted, it took overtimes for Houston and UTSA to get to 72 points and the game against Texas Tech to get to 63, but it got there.
Kansas is getting great balance out of its offense, the Cougars haven’t come close to stopping the pass so far, and now you’re asking for both sides to push into the low 30s after that hasn’t been a problem for either side so far.
Sort of like taking the under on Iowa until we know better, 57.5 just isn’t a big lift for two offense scoring as well as they are.
Speaking of staying on the ride for a bit too long …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 2 Fresno State at USC
2. Fresno State at USC
LINE USC -12.5
ATS PICK USC
Everyone, there’s still time to get aboard my USC Is Awesome And Might Just Might Get To The College Football Playoff bus.
There are refreshments, with a tasteful assortment of beverages along with a fine array of meats and cheeses.
I know, I know, you’re a little spooked by the way Stanford was able to power away on the Trojan defensive front, and I know you got a little scared late in the 41-28 win with USC -9.
You worry too much.
USC took its foot off the gas and it almost proved costly late. However, early on, there was nothing stopping the offense that hit the 500-yard mark for the second week in a row.
There weren’t any turnovers, the attack moved however it wanted, and it turned out to be more than enough to get the job done on the road.
Meanwhile, Fresno State had Oregon State all but dead, and couldn’t finish it off in the wild 35-32 Beaver victory.
Fresno State’s passing game has been great so far with Jake Haener and company winging it around, but the defense hasn’t dealt with anything like this.
The 12.5 might seem a bit much, but 1) USC is back home, 2) the Mountain West has been AWFUL so far this season – except for Air Force – and 3) watch out for USC to take the intensity meter up a notch or so.
Lincoln Riley challenged his offensive line before the Stanford game, and now it’ll be about the defensive front, and the O playing a full 60 minutes.
Seriously, this bus is tricked out. Space is filling up fast.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 1 Rutgers at Temple
1. Rutgers at Temple
LINE Rutgers -17.5
ATS PICK Rutgers
There’s nothing about this that feels right.
It’s Rutgers.
Rutgers shouldn’t be giving away 17.5 to a potted plant much less a real, live football team. Apparently America feels that way, too – the line hasn’t moved much from the -17 when it opened.
This is a better Temple team now under new head coach Stan Drayton. Is it significantly stronger than the version that lost to Rutgers 61-14 to open last year? Ehhhhh, a little.
Is it the 30-14 win over Lafayette last week that did it for everyone?
Again, it’s Rutgers. Yeah, it beat Boston College 22-21 to start the season, and you and your sewing circle could beat Wagner 66-7, but the team is in place to win this easily.
Even in the win last week, Temple’s offense didn’t really work. The passing game was okay, but the ground attack sputtered and the three turnovers – to go along with the three in the 30-0 loss to Duke – were a problem.
Rutgers destroys teams that screw up, and its defense forces mistakes with five takeaways in the first two games.
There’s that, there’s the defense that allowed 48 rushing yards on 59 carries so far, and there’s all the pressure from the front that’s going to be a problem for the Owl backfield.
But it’s still Rutgers, and it’s still giving away 17.5 on the road.
Expect the defense to get this done.
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Week 3: College Week 2: NFL
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ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
