Week 4 preview: Get ready for Saints-Chargers fantasy goodness
Let’s preview this week’s NFL action by first focusing on the games that are expected to produce the most real and fantasy points before I go around the league to highlight the key players we should be watching and why.
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Saints at Chargers (O/U 53.5): Drew Brees ($40) is in the perfect spot to produce fantasy points as long as Sean Payton keeps his job, which may come into some question given New Orleans’ continued struggles on defense. Remember, Brees is a top-10 road QB scorer in the last three years, too. Of course, Payton is the team’s offensive guru but still as head coach has ultimate overall responsibility. You can’t risk playing Willie Snead with the turf toe injury. The Chargers didn’t excel last week offensively and especially in the passing game in what seemed like a great matchup against the Colts. I still really like Tyrell Williams ($19), who seems like what central casting would send over for the role of “stud WR,” but he did slide behind Dontrelle Inman ($10), who doesn’t seem nearly as exciting, in snap counts last week. So far this year, Williams has 25 less snaps than Inman. And Travis Benjamin ($28), who should be San Diego’s top receiver, has 26 less.
[Week 4 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]
Panthers at Falcons (O/U 50.5): Is Cam Newton 2016 ($39) back to Cam Newton 2014? That seems to be the case and should not be shocking. This is the reason why you never want to draft the No. 1 QB from the year before at a No. 1 QB price (unless it’s Drew Brees). I don’t get this over/under but remember that these totals are inefficient because people don’t bet them that much and, when they do, they heavily bet the over. So the overs become inflated. The Falcons are a great offense and a terrible defense but this also is a division game. Last year the games had totals of 33 and 38 points. Tevin Coleman ($19) has been zeroRB gold, but I would forget about him this week given this matchup. Greg Olsen ($24) faces a team that is bad on paper against tight ends but used to defending him (7 catches for 92 yards and 0 TDs in two games last year). So lower expectations with Olsen.
Chiefs at Steelers (O/U 47.5): How many touches for DeAngelo Williams ($22)? On the Breakfast Table Podcast, Scott Pianowski and I set the over/under at 8. Scott went over, I went under (six). Is Le’Veon Bell ($31) back after another serious knee injury? Watch his lateral quickness and see how fresh he looks in the fourth quarter. Has Jamaal Charles ($27), whose status remains questionable, been relegated to being the new Priest Holmes after Holmes’s absence showed the world how good Larry Johnson was? Spencer Ware ($23) leads the NFL in scrimmage yards. Jeremy Maclin ($25) is on pace for about 160 targets but needs a big game so that his owners can play him with confidence as their No. 2 WR.
Week 4 Notebook:
– I loved Terrelle Pryor ($17) last week (follow me @michaelsalfino) before kickoff because I figured he’d get QB action and it turned out he was dynamic in his receiving role. Cody Kessler ($23) looked good and gets a great matchup here. If he hiccups, Pryor will get QB snaps and can generate big plays with his legs and even with his arm. He’s fun to own and is now a must start. Jamison Crowder ($19) is a WR3 at least and I don’t give a guy a designation like this unless I feel his upside is a tier higher. He is now getting snaps in two-WR sets on a team on pace for 5,275 passing yards.
– LeSean McCoy ($27) looks like what we hoped that Todd Gurley would become — an elite fantasy weapon despite a shaky offense. Will the possible loss of Sammy Watkins for the remainder of the season end up hurting McCoy given the dearth of other weapons? The Patriots will answer this question quickly. LeGarrette Blount ($33) is making a monkey out of people who went RobustRB.
– The Jets have the worst pass defense in the NFL measured by yards per attempt. But Russell Wilson ($34) is too shaky physically with knee and ankle issues to risk the start. Plus the Jets could really dominate the Seahawks offensive line and knock out Wilson even if he starts.
– There is zeroRB gold in the Lions-Bears game. Dwayne Washington ($10) and of course Jordan Howard are attractive starters this week. Washington projects for about 70 yards and a touchdown.
– I love DeMarco Murray’s talent but Derrick Henry ($14) predictably is getting about 30% more carries than the typical No. 2 runner. Murray ($30) makes this up in PPR. I fear Henry (3.7 yards per carry) is a big stiff mostly because I assume that with tall runners until they prove me wrong. I always bet the base rates.
– The Raiders view Amari Cooper ($24) as a downfield, low-volume, high-leverage receiver like DeSean Jackson ($22). We have to just accept this. And DJax for all his elite talent in reality is a WR3 in fantasy for that reason.
– Carson Palmer ($31) and the Cardinals have to get their passing game on track. The downfield focus isn’t working nearly as well as last year so there needs to be a Plan B to move the safeties up and that starts with David Johnson ($37).
– Don’t you dare trade Odell Beckham Jr. ($35). He’s my No. 2 fantasy wideout for the rest of the season and is on pace even now for 100 catches and about 1,500 yards.
