Week 4 AFC Targets and Touches
With Week 3 officially in the books, it’s time to review opportunity data for the week. Note: if a player has an asterisk next to a number in their data set, that indicates the player was injured during the game. Also, this data will stick to fantasy relevant players meaning that running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends that only see one target or touch per-game will not be included.
Let’s get to it.
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Baltimore Ravens
Targets: Steve Smith (Week 1: 7, Week 2: 16, Week 3: 17), Justin Forsett (7, 4, 7), Crockett Gillmore (4, 6, 3), Lorenzo Taliaferro (0, 3, 1), Kamar Aiken (3, 7, 1), Marlon Brown (2, 4, 5), Maxx Williams (2, 1, 7)
RB Touches: Justin Forsett (18, 19, 14), Lorenzo Taliaferro (0, 10, 4), Buck Allen (10, 2, 3)
Red zone Targets: Steve Smith (2, 3, 2), Crockett Gillmore (1, 2, 0), Justin Forsett (1, 0, 0), Lorenzo Taliaferro (0, 2, 0), Michael Campanaro (0, 0, 1)
Red zone Carries: Justin Forsett (0, 5, 0) and Lorenzo Taliaferro (0, 1, 1)
CBs Thrown At (via PFF): Jimmy Smith 11, 7, 10 (Allowed: 7 -60, 4-62-1, 7-126-1), Lardarius Webb 5, 10, 3 (2-24, 5-90-1, 1-9-0), Kyle Arrington 6, 6, 3 (6-42, 6-56-1, 3-46-0),
Analysis: Steve Smith is 36-years-old. He is not playing like his age should indicate. He blasted one of the best secondaries in the league (Bengals) for 13-186-2 on 17 targets in Week 3 after dropping 10-150-0 on the Raiders the week before. The Ravens face the leaky Pittsburgh secondary on the road in Week 4.
It’s time to change expectations for Justin Forsett. He’s a mid-RB2 on a less-than-explosive offense in fantasy just based on volume for the time being. He’s averaging 3.2 yards per tote on his 39 carries thus far and the only thing elevating his PPR floor is his six targets per-game.
Buffalo Bills
Targets: Sammy Watkins (3, 8, 2*), Percy Harvin (5, 5, 8), LeSean McCoy (4, 3, 3), Charles Clay (4, 6, 7), Robert Woods (2, 3, 5), Karlos Williams (0, 2, 0), Chris Hogan (0, 1, 4)
RB Touches: LeSean McCoy (20, 18, 12) and Karlos Williams (6, 8, 12)
Red zone Targets: Charles Clay (0, 1, 0), LeSean McCoy (0, 0, 1), Percy Harvin, Chris Hogan (0, 1, 1)
Red zone Carries: LeSean McCoy (3, 2, 1) and Karlos Williams (1, 2, 0)
CBs Thrown At: Stephon Gilmore 15, 13, 6 (7-110, 8-57-1, 3-66-1), Ronald Darby 7, 9, 11 (5-41, 3-48, 4-51), Nickell Robey 8, 6, 4 (5-31, 5-72, 3-37)
Analysis: Sammy Watkins (calf) left the Bills’ Week 3 game against Miami and HC Rex Ryan indicated Watkins could miss Week 4 on Monday. It’s a situation to monitor closely. Speaking of situations to monitor, Karlos Williams has earned a bigger role in the Bills’ offense. He’s averaging 7.8 yards per carry (on 24 carries) through Week 3 and 72 of his 186 rushing yards have come after contact. Williams will likely be the starter in Week 4 as LeSean McCoy is nursing a hamstring strain.
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Cincinnati Bengals
Targets: A.J. Green (8, 4, 13), Tyler Eifert (12, 5, 3), Jeremy Hill (0, 1, 0), Giovani Bernard (6, 3, 4), Marvin Jones (3, 5, 8), Mohamed Sanu (3, 2, 4)
RB Touches: Jeremy Hill (19, 11, 12) and Gio Bernard (14, 23, 16)
Red zone Targets: A.J. Green (2, 2, 3), Tyler Eifert (2, 2, 2), Mohamed Sanu (1, 1, 2), Gio Bernard (1, 0, 0), Marvin Jones (1, 2, 2)
Red zone Carries: Jeremy Hill (8, 0, 4), Gio Bernard (2, 6, 4)
CBs Thrown At: Dre Kirkpatrick 7, 5, 8 (3-31, 4-67-1, 4-53-1), Adam Jones 7, 7, 5 (5-42, 5-47, 4-36), Leon Hall 5, 3, 3 (3-5, 2-14, 3-33)
Analysis: Through Week 3, the Bengals have run the most plays in the red zone (53) in the league. As mentioned last week, Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill are in a fairly direct time-share for now. Bernard and Hill both have 41 carries on the year – Bernard is averaging 5.7 yards per carry while Hill is averaging 3.0 YPC. Bernard has also out-snapped Hill (96:46) over the past two weeks and both are RB2’s in fantasy until further notice. After seeing 12 total targets in Week 1 and 2 combined, A.J. Green received 13 looks in Week 3 and made the most of them posting an otherworldly 10-227-2 receiving line.
Cleveland Browns
Targets: Andrew Hawkins (6, 4, 6), Travis Benjamin (3, 4, 10), Brian Hartline (5, 3, 7), Gary Barnidge (5, 1, 10), Taylor Gabriel (4, 1, 5), Isaiah Crowell (2, 0, 0), Duke Johnson (0, 0, 7)
RB Touches: Isaiah Crowell (14, 15, 10) and Duke Johnson (7, 12, 10)
Red zone Targets: Andrew Hawkins (1, 0, 2), Gary Barnidge (0, 0, 2), Taylor Gabriel (0, 0, 1), Travis Benjamin (0, 0, 2)
Red zone Carries: Isaiah Crowell (2, 2, 3)
CBs Thrown At: Joe Haden 7, 8, 6 (6-99-1, 3-34-1, 6-87) and Tramon Williams 5, 5, 7 (3-19, 3-37, 3-26)
Analysis: At this point, we all know what the Browns’ offense is for fantasy purposes. Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell have split snaps (90:89) through two weeks and will continue to eat into each other’s production unless one emerges with a bigger slice of the workload and snap-share.
Denver Broncos
Targets: Emmanuel Sanders (12, 14, 9), Demaryius Thomas (11, 14, 13), C.J. Anderson (8, 1, 1) Jordan Norwood (5, 5, 3) Owen Daniels (2, 5, 9), Virgil Green (1, 3, 1), Ronnie Hillman (0, 1, 1), Bennie Fowler (0, 0, 4)
RB Touches: C.J. Anderson (16, 13, 9) and Ronnie Hillman (12, 9, 8)
Red zone Targets: Demaryius Thomas (0, 0, 0) Emmanuel Sanders (0, 2, 0), Owen Daniels (0, 0, 2)
Red zone Carries: C.J. Anderson (0, 0, 4) and Ronnie Hillman (1, 2, 1)
CBs Thrown At: Chris Harris Jr. 5, 4, 4 (4-13, 4-58, 3-20), Aqib Talib 4, 5, 9 (2-25, 1-7, 7-70), Bradley Roby 3, 0, 3 (2-11, 0-0, 1-5)
Analysis: The Broncos passing game is simple to diagnose: Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will be fed voluminously and routinely while Denver is still searching for a viable third target.
Denver’s run game is a little more suspect. C.J. Anderson is averaging 2.3 yards per carry (32 attempts) while Ronnie Hillman isn’t lighting the world on fire with his 3.1 YPC (28 attempts) either. Anderson is the clear leader in snaps (134:72) over Hillman but clearly neither back has made much headway yet. Denver seemingly wants Anderson to be “the guy” but it’s tough to take a strong stance on the situation at this point. However, Denver’s schedule opens up in next three weeks, as they face Minnesota, Oakland, and Cleveland all of whom have below average run-stopping units.
Houston Texans
Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (13, 11, 14), Nate Washington (11, 8, 9), Cecil Shorts (8, 12, 9), Alfred Blue (2, 1, 0), Jonathan Grimes (2, 7, 4), Chris Polk (1, 8, 0), Garrett Graham (1, 5, 1)
RB Touches: Alfred Blue (10, 6, 31), Jonathan Grimes (7, 2, 10), Chris Polk (6, 16, 5)
Red zone Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (4, 2, 1), Cecil Shorts (1, 3, 0), Nate Washington (1, 1, 1), Garrett Graham (0, 1, 0)
Red zone Carries: Jonathan Grimes (2, 0, 0), Chris Polk (1, 1, 0), Alfred Blue (1, 0, 5)
CBs Thrown At: Kareem Jackson 6, 7, 9 (6-52-1, 5-44, 6-117), Johnathan Joseph 5, 9, 12 (2-11, 5-74-1, 2-24), Kevin Johnson 0, 3, 5 (0-0, 1-2, 4-74-1)
Analysis: Until Arian Foster returns in (likely) the next two weeks, there really is not much analysis needed here. DeAndre Hopkins is a target hog whose production will be fairly high variance just because of the offense’s overall inefficiency; and Houston will continue to rotate backs between Alfred Blue, Chris Polk, and Jonathan Grimes until Foster returns.
Indianapolis Colts
Targets: T.Y. Hilton (14, 7, 7), Donte Moncrief (11, 8, 7), Frank Gore (3, 1, 2), Andre Johnson (10, 7, 1), Dwayne Allen (6, 0, 0), Phillip Dorsett (3, 6, 3), Coby Fleener (1, 0, 6)
RB Touches: Frank Gore (10, 16, 15) and Josh Robinson (4, 10, 2)
Red zone Targets: T.Y. Hilton (2, 2, 0), Andre Johnson (2, 0, 0), Donte Moncrief (2, 0, 1), Dwayne Allen (2, 0, 0)
Red zone Carries: Frank Gore (0, 4, 3) and Josh Robinson (2, 2, 1)
CBs Thrown At: Vontae Davis 2, 7, 6 (0-0, 4-53-1, 4-50-1) and Jalil Brown 1, 9, 8 (1-3, 8-108-1, 4-44)
Analysis: It’s pretty clear the Donte Moncrief is the Colts’ No. 2 WR from here on out. I was one of those that believed Andre Johnson wasn’t done yet, but that has clearly been proven incorrect. Moncrief has usurped Johnson on Andrew Luck’s target totem pole and it may just be a matter of time before rookie Philip Dorsett is knocking on the door for Johnson’s No. 3 WR job.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Targets: Allen Robinson (6, 12, 9), T.J. Yeldon (4, 4, 3), Allen Hurns (7, 4, 4), Marqise Lee (0, 4, 2)
RB Touches: T.J. Yeldon (15, 28, 13), Denard Robinson (7, 1, 0), Toby Gerhart (0, 0, 3)
Red zone Targets: Allen Robinson (2, 1, 0) and Allen Hurns (1, 0, 0)
Red zone Carries: T.J. Yeldon (1, 6, 1)
CBs Thrown At: Aaron Colvin 5, 5, 6 (2-14, 5-53, 6-63-1), Demetrius McCray 2, 5, 4 (2-14, 4-28, 2-9), Davon House 3, 2, 4 (1-37, 1-18, 2-23)
Analysis: The Jaguars offense is really straightforward from a fantasy perspective. T.J. Yeldon is the unrivaled workhorse seeing 64.9% of the Jags’ carries and 71.1% of snaps. He’s a high-end RB3 that will post RB2-type numbers in solid matchups. Allen Robinson will continue to see volume but – much like DeAndre Hopkins – his weekly consistency will be up-and-down because of the offense’s inefficiencies.
Kansas City Chiefs
Targets: Jeremy Maclin (9, 7, 11), Jamaal Charles (8, 5, 7), Travis Kelce (6, 5, 10), Albert Wilson (3, 1, 3), De’Anthony Thomas (2, 4, 2), Knile Davis (1, 1, 0)
RB Touches: Jamaal Charles (21, 25, 16), Knile Davis (7, 3, 0)
Red zone Targets: Jamaal Charles (2, 3, 0), Jeremy Maclin (2, 1, 2), Travis Kelce (1, 1, 2), De’Anthony Thomas (0, 0, 2)
Red zone Carries: Jamaal Charles (1, 3, 4) and Knile Davis (0, 1, 0)
CBs Thrown At: Marcus Cooper 0, 0, 7 (0-0, 0-0, 3-44-2), Marcus Peters 13, 14, 4 (8-122-2, 6-55-1, 3-22-1), Jamell Fleming 11, 13, 0 (8-85, 9-123-1, 0-0), Phillip Gaines 6, 5, 0* (3-40, 4-40, 0-0*)
Analysis: The Chiefs were 72.3% pass heavy on Monday Night Football and had to chase the game from behind all night in Green Bay. That capped Jamaal Charles’ workload and lead to more targets for Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce. Maclin’s 8-141-1 receiving line came entirely in the second half and he only saw two targets in the first half. Travis Kelce should see 10 targets per-game regardless of game flow, but it is great to see him involved routinely in the red zone. He only had 13 red zone looks in 2014 and already has four targets inside of the 20-yard line this year.
Miami Dolphins
Targets: Jarvis Landry (12, 10, 13), Lamar Miller (1, 6, 3), Jordan Cameron (7, 4, 8), Rishard Matthews (6, 7, 10), Greg Jennings (3, 5, 3), Kenny Stills (3, 4, 1), Damien Williams (1, 4, 3), DeVante Parker (0, 1, 7)
RB Touches: Lamar Miller (14, 15, 10), Damien Williams (2, 5, 3), Jonas Gray (0, 0, 9)
Red zone Targets: Jarvis Landry (3, 1, 3), Jordan Cameron (2, 0, 2), Damien Williams (1, 1, 0), Rishard Matthews (1, 0, 0), Kenny Stills (1, 0, 0), DeVante Parker (0, 0, 4)
Red zone Carries: Lamar Miller (0, 3, 1), Damien Williams (1, 0, 0), Jonas Gray (0, 0, 4)
CBs Thrown At: Brent Grimes 4, 9, 3 (1-4, 5-81, 3-14), Brice McCain 4, 7, 10 (3-49, 4-80-1, 6-100), Jamar Taylor 8, 4, 4 (7-54, 2-26, 3-49-1)
Analysis: Through three weeks, the Dolphins’ offense has been the definition of pedestrian and disappointing. Despite all of the weapons around him, Ryan Tannehill has not taken the expected leap forward in the league’s opening weeks, Miami can’t get their run game off of the ground, and they subsequently have scored just five offensive touchdowns. The ‘Fins face the Jets, Titans, Texans, Patriots, and Bills in the next five weeks. That’s not exactly the most conducive schedule to get your offense “right” under.
New England Patriots
Targets: Rob Gronkowski (8, 13, 7), Julian Edelman (12, 19, 11), Dion Lewis (5, 9, 5), Danny Amendola (3, 2, 5), Aaron Dobson (1, 8, 3), Scott Chandler (1, 5, 2)
RB Touches: Dion Lewis (19, 13, 13) and LeGarrette Blount (0, 2, 19)
Red zone Targets: Rob Gronkowski (4, 1, 2) Julian Edelman (1, 4, 2), Scott Chandler (1, 2, 2), Aaron Dobson (0, 2, 1), Danny Amendola (0, 0, 2)
Red zone Carries: Dion Lewis (2, 3, 4) and LeGarrette Blount (0, 2, 9)
CBs Thrown At: Malcolm Butler 11, 2, 5 (10-151-1, 1-32-1, 2-66-1) and Logan Ryan 0, 5, 4 (0-0, 4-39, 4-49)
Analysis: The Patriots offense is easy to diagnose at the top with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and Julian Edelman. It’s trying to figure out what Bill Belichick is thinking with his running back rotation that is a pain in fantasy owners’ necks. Dion Lewis is the starter and is just another added weapon to Brady and Co.’s arsenal but I’m reluctant to even remotely guess what Belichick is planning under his hood for his backs. For what it’s worth, LeGarrette Blount didn’t receive a carry until the mid-2nd quarter in the Pats’ Week 3 drubbing of the Jags’. By then, Dion Lewis already had six touches and Lewis out-snapped Blount (28:8) in the first half.
New York Jets
Targets: Brandon Marshall (9, 10, 14), Eric Decker (3, 11, 0), Bilal Powell (4, 5, 8), Quincy Enunwa (0, 3, 10), Chris Ivory (1, 2, 0), Jeremy Kerley (0, 0, 11), Devin Smith (0, 0, 9), Zac Stacy (0, 0, 2)
RB Touches: Chris Ivory (21, 16, 0) and Bilal Powell (14, 16, 17)
Red zone Targets: Brandon Marshall (2, 1, 3), Eric Decker (1, 2, 0), Chris Ivory (1, 0, 0), Bilal Powell (1, 1, 0), Jeremy Kerley (0, 0, 1), Quincy Enunwa (0, 0, 1), Devin Smith (0, 0, 1)
Red zone Carries: Chris Ivory (7, 4, 0) and Bilal Powell (2, 1, 0)
CBs Thrown At: Darrelle Revis 6, 9, 2 (3-37, 5-75, 0-0), Buster Skrine 2, 10, 5 (1-11, 6-65, 4-34), Antonio Cromartie 1, 4, 4 (1-54-1, 3-71-1, 0-0)
Analysis: Brandon Marshall is a low-end WR1 in fantasy until further notice and if Decker (knee) misses another week, Marshall is a top-8 play in Week 4 against the Dolphins. No further analysis is needed there. Chris Ivory (quad) was active in Week 3 but did not play a snap, leaving Bilal Powell as the starter. Stay tuned to the Jets’ practice reports this week for more on Ivory.
Oakland Raiders
Targets: Amari Cooper (9, 11, 11), Michael Crabtree (8, 16, 9), Latavius Murray (7, 3, 1), Mychal Rivera (2, 5, 1)
RB Touches: Latavius Murray (21, 18, 27) and Taiwan Jones (4, 3, 2)
Red zone Targets: Amari Cooper (0, 0, 0), Michael Crabtree (1, 1, 2), Mychal Rivera (0, 1, 0)
Red zone Carries: Latavius Murray (0, 2, 8) and Taiwan Jones (0, 0, 1)
CBs Thrown At: D.J. Hayden 9, 8, 9 (7-67-1, 5-54, 6-62-1) and Neiko Thorpe 3, 10, 9 (3-38-1, 5-104, 5-89)
Analysis: It’s time to retire the “But, Raiders” lazy analysis when diagnosing their offense. Derek Carr has seemingly improved in Year two and his cast of Amari Cooper, Latavius Murray, and Michael Crabtree is a much-improved unit over James Jones, Andre Holmes, and the rotting husks of Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew in 2014.
Plus – for fantasy purposes – their offense is extremely clear-cut. Cooper and Crabtree are good for at least seven targets per-game regardless of the opposing matchup and Latavius Murray is a top-15 back every week just based on volume. Through three weeks Oakland is 10th in points scored and 5th in yards per play (6.16) and while those numbers may not stick throughout the course of the season, I’d wager a lot of people were wrong about the Oakland offense this year – including myself.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Targets: Antonio Brown (11, 11, 13), Le’Veon Bell (0, 0, 8), Heath Miller (11, 2, 3), Darrius Heyward-Bey (7, 5, 3), Markus Wheaton (7, 4, 3)
RB Touches: Le’Veon Bell (0, 0, 26) and DeAngelo Williams (22, 24, 1)
Red zone Targets: Heath Miller (3, 2, 2), Antonio Brown (1, 1, 1), Le’Veon Bell (0, 0, 2)
Red zone Carries: Le’Veon Bell (0, 0, 3) and DeAngelo Williams (6, 7, 0)
CBs Thrown At: William Gay 7, 9, 4 (5-37, 6-61, 4-44) and Antwon Blake 4, 8, 3 (4-41, 6-54, 2-32)
Analysis: The big news in Week 3 was while Ben Roethlisberger (knee) avoided an ACL-tear, he’ll still be sidelined “at least four weeks” with an MCL sprain. Veteran Michael Vick will start in his place. Over the next four weeks, the Steelers face the Ravens, Chargers, Cardinals, and the Chiefs. Antonio Brown will still be a certifiable stud and a target monster with Vick at quarterback but Big Ben’s injury might tick down his weekly ceiling and floor just a hair. Le’Veon Bell will be leaned on heavily, but like Brown, his touchdown ceiling is capped a bit based on Big Ben’s injury. He’s still easily a top-3 option, however.
San Diego Chargers
Targets: Keenan Allen (17, 4, 18), Danny Woodhead (7, 6, 4), Stevie Johnson (6, 6, 5), Ladarius Green (6, 6, 0), Melvin Gordon (3, 1, 1), Malcom Floyd (2, 4, 7)
RB Touches: Melvin Gordon (17, 17, 14) and Danny Woodhead (16, 13, 8)
Red zone Targets: Stevie Johnson (2, 1, 1), Keenan Allen (2, 0, 1), Ladarius Green (2, 0, 0), Danny Woodhead (2, 0, 0), Malcom Floyd (1, 0, 2)
Red zone Carries: Danny Woodhead (6, 1, 0) – No Red zone Rush Attempts in Week 3
CBs Thrown At: Jason Verrett 4, 3, 2 (1-6, 2-38, 2-24), Brandon Flowers 4, 6, 0* (2-39, 4-70-2, 0-0), Patrick Robinson 4, 2, 3 (2-27, 1-2, 2-24)
Analysis: Due to game-flow (trailing), the Chargers were 61.1% pass heavy in Week 3, which harmed Melvin Gordon’s snap count and touches. Gordon has been out-snapped by Danny Woodhead (109:92) through the first three weeks but Gordon has out-touched Woodhead (31:21) in the last two weeks. So far, we’ve seen two games where Keenan Allen is an absolute target monster and one (at Bengals) where Allen was phased out of the offense. I’m bullish on Allen as a low-end WR2 in fantasy but I’m very interested to see his target share when Antonio Gates (suspension) returns in Week 5.
Tennessee Titans
Targets: Kendall Wright (4, 4, 12), Bishop Sankey (4, 2, 2), Delanie Walker (3, 0*, 10), Harry Douglas (2, 8, 6), Justin Hunter (2, 2, 2), Dorial Green-Beckham (0, 2, 2), Dexter McCluster (0, 4, 2), Antonio Andrews (0, 0, 2)
RB Touches: Bishop Sankey (14, 12, 7), Dexter McCluster (2, 14, 6), Antonio Andrews (0, 0, 13)
Red zone Targets: Kendall Wright (0, 0, 4), Delanie Walker (1, 0, 0), Harry Douglas (1, 1, 0), Bishop Sankey (1, 2, 0), Dorial Green-Beckham (0, 1, 2), Justin Hunter (0, 0, 1)
Red zone Carries: Bishop Sankey (1, 1, 2) and Antonio Andrews (0, 0, 4)
CBs Thrown At: Coty Sensabaugh 3, 6, 4 (1-18, 4-84-1, 0-0), Perrish Cox 2, 1, 8 (1-6, 0-0, 7-78-1), Blidi Wreh-Wilson 6, 3, 5 (2-18, 1-50-1, 2-56)
Analysis: In Week 1, Bishop Sankey was the Titans leader in touches while Terrance West led in carries. In Week 2, Dexter McCluster led in touches. In Week 3, Antonio Andrews led Titans’ backs in touches after not registering a carry in the first two games. Please avoid the Titans’ backfield for fantasy decisions.
