Splitsville: Go-to receivers

Let’s start our first Splitsville with the wide receivers and targets after Week 1.

Rather than target total, let’s view No. 1 receivers as over 26% of their team's passes, No. 2 as over 20% and No. 3 as over 15%. Those are levels that are supported with career rates of active leaders; only two receivers entered 2014 with a target rate of over 30% — Brandon Marshall (31.9%) and Andre Johnson (30.1%). Note: 11 entered the season over 26%.

Obviously this is a small sample size and should be heavily discounted but it does mean something and is as bettable as anything in the early going.

Using Yahoo stats, the 12 receivers over 26% are (in order of highest target share): Jordy Nelson, Johnson, Anquan Boldin (last year second most targeted WR in percentage at 31.4%), Donnie Avery, Calvin Johnson, Mike Wallace, Pierre Garcon, Andrew Hawkins, Demaryius Thomas, Greg Jennings, Robert Woods and Randall Cobb.

The available guys deserve to be picked up immediately. Hawkins is tricky with Josh Gordon’s return looming, according to multiple reports. I regret not being higher on Boldin this summer. Avery has the return of Dwayne Bowe this week, cutting into his share. Yeah, Woods is fine even though the GM reportedly likes him a lot more than the coaches.

Some other notables: Brian Quick 25%, DeAndre Hopkins 22.7%, Marqise Lee 23.3%, Allen Hurns 20.9%, Cordarrelle Patterson 20%, Justin Hunter 24.2%, Brandin Cooks 19%, Golden Tate 18.8%, Eric Decker 17.2%. I really like Hopkins because only three 21-year-old wideouts ever had more receiving yards than his total last year. We never talk about age in football, only in baseball (that's stupid). Kenny Stills, available for free right now, is another guy who was way up there at age 21 (2013 for him).

Note that Decker has one other target for sure because Vick missed him in the end zone. That’s the issue with target stats: They have an element of subjectivity.

I liked Rueben Randle and many loved Victor Cruz but they were 9.1% and 18.2%. Randle is droppable, as much as I hate dumping him so quickly. But benches are short. Here's the entire target list.

Oh, Steve Smith was 24.2% with his 15 targets, behind Quick who is way cheaper, taller and faster. But maybe the Ravens incredible passing volume is projectable.

This neatly brings us to run/pass splits, which need to be eyeballed for gameflow/situation, especially with a week of data. Only eight teams ran the ball over 50% of plays. The Bills 59%, Texans 59%, Seahawks 56%, 49ers 56%, Vikings 54%, Dolphins 54%, Jets 52% and Titans  51%.

And 11 teams threw 60% or more: Colts 76%, Ravens 73%, Bears 71%, Patriots 70%, Raiders 65%, Buccaneers 64%, Chiefs 63%, Falcons 62%, Jaguars 61%, Saints 60% and Chargers 60%.

Eight QBs had a yards per pass attempt average over 8.0, which for a full season is elite (highest is first): Matthew Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colin Kaepernick, Austin Davis, Carson Palmer and Jake Locker.

Eight were under 6.0, which is terrible (worst is first): Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Eli Manning, Josh McCown, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith. Of course, Rodgers gets a pass. But this week against the Jets will not be easy if that pass protection does not dramatically improve. This is the key thing to watch this week in fantasy football..

With defenses, you really want to fade the offenses generally. Of course, the Seahawks are an exception. And the stat you want to bet on is sacks. The turnovers are far more random and of course sacks create most fumbles and many interceptions (at least the related pressure does).

Sacks were down in Week 1  (5.7% of passes vs. 6.7% for all of 2013). But five teams had lots of trouble protecting their QB, with a rate over 10% (in order): Rams, Titans, Steelers, Chiefs and Eagles. The Packers were barely under 10%. Conversely, the Chargers, Bengals and Saints did not allow any sacks so avoid them with your defenses. Also, always strive to stream home defenses. So that means this week, the Bucs (home vs. the Rams), Ravens (home vs. Steelers) and Broncos (home vs. Chiefs) are the plays. We obviously don’t want to bet against the Eagles offense given their ability to score, even on the road this week in Indy.