Silva's Week 17 Matchups
The vast majority of season-long leagues were completed in Week 16, so this is an abbreviated version of the Matchups column with an emphasis on daily-fantasy ideas. With season-long fantasy in the books, it's a good time to start playing daily (DFS) if you aren't already. You can sign up on FanDuel at this link, which directs you to an auto-promo code.
My goal in this column is to focus on one or two critical situations and/or players in each Week 17 game.
1:00PM ET Games
Dallas @ Washington
Alfred Morris stands out as a strong Week 17 FanDuel play based on his cost-friendly price ($6,700), plus matchup, and history of success with Robert Griffin III at quarterback. Since both entered the league in 2012, Morris has 643 carries for 3,125 yards (4.86 YPC) and 23 touchdowns in RG3's 34 career starts. Morris has rushed 221 times for 794 yards (3.59 YPC) and just five scores in 13 games where Kirk Cousins or Colt McCoy has started. This year, Morris is averaging 4.89 YPC with six TDs in Griffin's six starts. He's averaged 3.38 YPC with just two scores in Cousins and McCoy's nine combined starts. The Cowboys plan to open Sunday's game playing their starters, but are a long shot to improve their playoff seeding and could easily end up resting first-stringers in the second half. The Cowboys also struggle to defend the run even with their starters in, permitting 4.47 yards per carry and the fifth most rushing touchdowns (13) in the league to running backs. Griffin and DeSean Jackson are also solid Week 17 plays. At $6,600, Griffin is priced as the QB28 on FanDuel, while Jackson ($7,000) will run most of his routes at burnable Cowboys LCB Brandon Carr. I'm probably going to play RG3 in all of my cash games this week.
On Dallas' side, Joseph Randle makes for an intriguing cap-saving option. His FanDuel price tag is the bare minimum ($4,500), and it's still an open question as to how much DeMarco Murray (hand) will play in D.C. I fully expect Murray to start and handle most of the first-half work, but Randle mixed in for 14 touches in last week's win over Indianapolis and should have a chance at double-digit touches again, depending on how this game plays out. It's also worth noting Murray missed Thursday's practice with an illness. Randle carries risk because his workload is uncertain and Washington's run defense has been stout all year, but that risk is lessened by his friendly cost.
Cleveland @ Baltimore
Abysmal quarterback play took a hatchet to Josh Gordon's box-score production in the fantasy playoffs, and it's appearing likely that he'll have to play with undrafted rookie Connor Shaw in Week 17. A Jeff Garcia-type talent, Shaw is a mobile and competitive signal caller with sub-average arm strength and a frustrating tendency to abandon the pocket when faced with duress. It's obviously not an ideal scenario for vertical stretcher Gordon. All that said, Gordon's FanDuel price tag ($7,200) has plummeted to the point where he can be viewed as a potential value. He has seven-plus targets in four of his five 2014 appearances, and Gordon's matchup is nearly picture perfect against a Ravens defense that shuts down the run yet surrenders the third most fantasy points in the league to wide receivers. Depleted at cornerback, Baltimore trotted out late-season waiver claim Rashaan Melvin at right corner in last week's loss to Houston. The rest of the Ravens' cornerbacks -- Lardarius Webb, Anthony Levine, and FS/slot CB Matt Elam -- have all earned decidedly negative Pro Football Focus grades. Gordon should also get some garbage-time opportunities in this one. It would take serious cajones to play him in head-to-head or 50/50 cash games, but at very least Gordon is worth a long look as a tournament start.
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
Because I'm a bit wary of Rob Gronkowski's Week 17 playing time, my current intention is to go cheap at tight end in this week's daily-league lineups. Among the tight ends I'll most strongly consider is Coby Fleener, whose outlook is improved by the absence of Dwayne Allen (knee) and uncertainty of T.Y. Hilton's (hamstring) health. When Allen missed Weeks 12 and 13, Fleener handled snap rates of 75% and 85%. He flopped against the Jaguars (2-28-0) but blew up against the Redskins (4-127-2), a reminder that Fleener remains volatile. Either way, Fleener's playing time clearly rose from his usual 65% clip with Allen on the shelf, and he could see another uptick if Hilton is limited this week. Fleener actually set a season high by playing 89% of the Colts' snaps with Hilton out last week. At $5,300, Fleener is currently priced as the TE11 on FanDuel. After getting blown out 42-7 by Dallas last week, the Colts say they have every intention of playing this game at full-tilt. Fleener is an inconsistent fantasy player because he is an inconsistent real-life player, but I think he's a legitimate candidate to lead the Colts in Week 17 targets.
Editor's Note: For FanDuel Week 17, you won't just need to find players with great matchups. You'll also need to start players who still have their own motivation to succeed. Build a better Week 17 lineup by checking out this RotoGrinders article on "Finding the Motivation".
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
Drew Brees let down a ton of fantasy owners last week -- myself included -- but he's a good bet to rebound against a Buccaneers team that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA and has coughed up a combined 27:11 TD-to-INT ratio to quarterbacks. Game watchers know Aaron Rodgers picked apart Tampa Bay last week despite his relatively slow box score, dinking and dunking his way to a 20-3 win. The Packers' primary problem was frequent red-zone stalls. You could make a good argument New Orleans' red-zone weapons are superior to Green Bay's, and among them is Nick Toon, who stands 6-foot-2, 215 and has a growing role. In order, Toon's snap rates the past three weeks are 46%, 55%, and 70%, with corresponding target totals of 4, 4, and 6. Toon has quietly run more pass routes than Kenny Stills in back-to-back games. The jury is very much out on Toon's talent, but he's become a regular in the Saints' offense and costs just $5,000 this week on FanDuel. Showing a reasonably high floor, Toon has 40-plus yards and/or a touchdown in each of his last five games. View him as a Week 17 salary-cap saver.
I also really like Mike Evans ($7,600) this week. Game flow could positively affect Evans' target total and the Saints are vulnerable to No. 1 receivers, permitting stat lines of 7-107 (Julio Jones), 4-78-1 (Alshon Jeffery), 2-24-1 (Kelvin Benjamin), 8-97-2 (Antonio Brown), 4-89-1 (Steve Smith Sr.), 6-127-1 (A.J. Green), and 6-95-1 (Anquan Boldin) over the last seven weeks. Football Outsiders grades New Orleans' pass defense as the sixth worst in football and also has a metric that evaluates defenses specifically versus No. 1 wide receivers. The Saints are fourth worst in that stat. Evans seems to have hit a bit of a rookie wall, failing to clear 50 yards in five straight games, but I think he might have one last explosion left in him. The Bucs dropped 31 points on the Saints when these clubs played at the Superdome in Week 5.
Philadelphia @ NY Giants
At 52 points, Eagles-Giants has the highest Vegas total of Week 17. Despite their ascending price tags, an Eli Manning-Odell Beckham stack is worth serious discussion in both Week 17 cash games and tournaments. Flamed by opposing No. 1 wide receivers, Philadelphia has served up the following stat lines over its last three games: 4-126 (DeSean Jackson), 6-114-3 (Dez Bryant), and 5-97-1 (Doug Baldwin). The Eagles have allowed the fourth most passing touchdowns (29) and eighth most per-game passing yards (253.9) in football. Catching late-season fire in first-year OC Ben McAdoo's system, Eli has an 11:2 TD-to-INT ratio and 69.8% completion rate over his last five games. Beckham has drawn double-digit targets in seven of the last eight weeks. Tom Coughlin's club is still playing hard -- coming off a Week 16 road demolition of the Rams -- while the couch-bound Eagles have been eliminated from the playoff hunt. If you do pair Eli with OBJ, however, keep in mind you'll have to take risks to save cap space elsewhere. At $9,200, Beckham is priced as this week's WR1 overall on FanDuel. Eli ($8,200) is the QB12. Even if it's in a limited role, I think the return of Rashad Jennings (ankle) bodes well for the entirety of New York's passing game, specifically helping Eli.
Buffalo @ New England
As the Bengals' Monday night upset of Denver clinched for New England the AFC's No. 1 seed, Bill Belichick's team has nothing left to play for. The Patriots have had a first-round playoff bye in five consecutive years. Belichick's strategy has differed from season to season, so there isn't a sturdy precedent from which to forecast. My guess is Belichick will play Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and the rest of his first string for at least two quarters, and quite possibly more depending on the flow of Sunday's game. The Patriots' offense has sputtered a bit recently, failing to exceed 23 points scored in three of the last four weeks. They’re off next week and may want to generate some momentum entering January. One Patriot I find interesting as a Week 17 daily-league start is Jonas Gray, whose FanDuel price tag is a more-than-reasonable $5,300. LeGarrette Blount (shoulder) seems likely to miss Sunday's game, and Buffalo's run defense has floundered for a sustained stretch. The Bills have permitted 923 yards and eight TDs on 198 carries (4.66 YPC) to running backs over their last nine games. There are no guarantees on Gray's usage, of course, and Brandon Bolden or even FB James Develin could just as easily lead the backfield in touches. Although Gray's low cost lowers his risk, I'd rather start him in a tournament than head-to-head or 50/50 cash game.
Friday Update: The Patriots ruled out Gray on Friday due to an ankle injury. Blount (shoulder) is questionable and may be a game-time decision. The Pats' other running backs are Develin, Shane Vereen, Brandon Bolden, and James White. Bolden is where I'd look first if I wanted to play a New England running back this week. He is a solid between-the-tackles runner and can play in the passing game. With workloads as unsettled as can be, however, I'm probably going to avoid this backfield altogether in Week 17.
Jacksonville @ Houston
The Vegas total on Jags-Texans is 40.5 points, second lowest of the week. The Texans are 9.5-point favorites. Arian Foster is probably the only daily-league option I'd consider from this game. At $8,600, Foster is priced as FanDuel's RB5 and isn't exactly a bargain. But you can count on workhorse usage -- Foster has 24-plus touches in four straight games -- while projected game flow and matchup should work in Foster's favor. Not only did Foster shred the Jags for 148 total yards and a touchdown at Jacksonville three weeks ago, but the Jags rank 22nd in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA and have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to running backs, including a league-high 90 receptions. If I were to rank running backs this week without considering DFS cost, I'd have Le'Veon Bell (vs. CIN) first and either Foster or C.J. Anderson (vs. OAK) second.
San Diego @ Kansas City
I'm a huge believer in Travis Kelce's on-field ability, but I'm probably going to avoid him as a Week 17 daily-league start. Keyed by FS Eric Weddle's stingy coverage, the Chargers allow the third fewest receptions (54), fifth fewest touchdowns (3), and sixth fewest yards (608) in the league to tight ends. They held Kelce to a 4-33-0 receiving line when San Diego hosted Kansas City in Week 7. Kelce must now contend with the emergence of impressive UDFA receiver Albert Wilson and addition of Jason Avant, who has taken on a large role in Andy Reid's offense, seeing 16 targets the past three weeks to Kelce's 22, Wilson's 20, and Dwayne Bowe's 18. This is very much a spread-the-wealth passing offense bogged down by limited quarterback play that may get worse with Chase Daniel under center after Alex Smith was ruled out with a lacerated spleen. Kelce is capable of doing special things on a football field and it's entirely possible he does more of them on Sunday. But I'll be taking my chances with tight ends in slightly less murky situations with better matchups.
Friday Update: With Smith sidelined six weeks, the Chiefs' season hinges on career backup Chase Daniel, a stocky 6-foot, 220-pound signal caller with above-average athleticism and mild arm strength. Daniel is by no means an upside option, but his cost is the $5,000 quarterback mininum on FanDuel, which immediately puts Daniel into play as a cash-game start. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is something of a QB whisperer, having designed offense that made replacement-level talents like A.J. Feeley and Kevin Kolb functional or better for stretches. He coaxed many career-best games out of a late-career Michael Vick, and in Kansas City has managed and manipulated Alex Smith into an above-average starter. Daniel also has an excellent matchup versus a San Diego defense that's permitted an 18:4 TD-to-INT ratio to quarterbacks over its last ten games. Last season, Daniel started against the Chargers in a meaningless game for the Chiefs, where Reid rested his first string. San Diego played all out. Daniel emerged with 200 passing yards, one touchdown, and 59 rushing yards on seven scrambles while avoiding turnovers. His top receivers were A.J. Jenkins and Junior Hemingway. I wrote earlier that I'd probably have Robert Griffin III in my Week 17 cash-game lineups. Based on cost, I'm seriously considering swapping out RG3 for Daniel.
Rather than increase Ladarius Green's usage or lean on an ineffective Seyi Ajirotutu, the Chargers turned to former CFL star Dontrelle Inman in the high-volume Keenan Allen role during the second half of last week's comeback win over San Francisco. Inman played 65% of San Diego's offensive snaps and likely earned more going forward by securing 7-of-9 targets for 79 yards. He got all of his catches in the final two quarters. No slouch athletically, Inman ran a 4.47 forty at 6-foot-3, 198 at the Virginia Cavaliers' 2011 Pro Day. He posted a 7-176-1 receiving line this preseason, including a 70-yard touchdown. Inman's Week 17 price tag on FanDuel is $4,800, just above minimum price. I'm finding him tough to fade at that cost.
NY Jets @ Miami
The Vegas total on Jets-Dolphins is 42 points, fourth lowest among Sunday's games. Generally speaking, it's a game to overlook when seeking optimal Week 17 plays. Ryan Tannehill, Jarvis Landry, Mike Wallace, and Charles Clay do all have plus matchups on Miami's side. An intriguing contrarian tournament option might be Eric Decker with Percy Harvin (ribs) not expected to play. As opposed to stingy LCB Brent Grimes, Decker primarily matched up with then-Fins RCB R.J. Stanford when the Jets played Miami in Week 13. The Dolphins' right cornerback is now Cortland Finnegan, who's had a decent season when healthy but is unimposing from a fantasy standpoint. The Jets' coaching staff has loosened the reins on Geno Smith, allowing him to attempt 29, 28, and 27 passes the past three weeks. Decker topped 80 yards in two of those games. Scoreless since early November, Decker's FanDuel price tag has dipped to $5,900. He figures to be the focal point of New York's passing attack in the season finale.
Chicago @ Minnesota
I don't have any idea what to expect from Jay Cutler in Week 17 -- his performance could be brutal, reasonably good, or anywhere in between -- but I do think this game sets up well for Martellus Bennett if Cutler just plays competent quarterback against the Vikings. Bennett's FanDuel price ($5,700) is depressed following his Week 16 goose egg, but over the past three weeks "Black Unicorn" has run more pass routes (124, per Pro Football Focus) than he has during any three-game stretch in the Marc Trestman era. It's no coincidence that those three weeks have coincided with Brandon Marshall's absence. Last week's zero may have also been a function of Jimmy Clausen starting. Bennett's target totals in Cutler's three previous starts were 11, 15, and 6. Incredibly banged up at linebacker, the Vikings lost SLB Anthony Barr (knee scope) for the season in Week 15, and WLB Chad Greenway (knee) in Week 16. Minnesota proceeded to get gashed by TEs Charles Clay and Dion Sims for a combined 11-149-1 receiving line in last week's loss to Miami. His Week 16 box score is scary, and Cutler's performance is as well, but I think Bennett's upside is worth the risk. If Xavier Rhodes locks down Alshon Jeffery, Bennett could emerge as Cutler's top target.
4:25PM ET Games
Oakland @ Denver
Raiders-Broncos has a 48-point Vegas total with Denver favored by 14. On paper, the game sets up beautifully for a C.J. Anderson-Broncos defense stack. Oakland has won each of its last three home games, but has failed to exceed 13 points scored in three straight road affairs. Although Anderson is the No. 2 overall fantasy back over the past five weeks -- behind only Le'Veon Bell -- he continues to be priced affordably on FanDuel, where Anderson ($8,300) is this week's RB8. A true league-winning waiver-wire pickup in season-long leagues, Anderson has handled no fewer than 21 touches in any of his last five games. Oakland has allowed 20 all-purpose touchdowns to running backs, third most in football. When the Raiders and Broncos met in The Black Hole in Week 10, Derek Carr was intercepted twice, fumbled once, and led just two scoring drives before a garbage-time 18-yard TD pass to Mychal Rivera, "narrowing" the deficit to 41-17. Carr averaged 4.09 yards per attempt. This game will be played at Mile High with plenty on the line. The Broncos still haven't sewn up a first-round bye over Cincinnati and can clinch one with a win. I also think Peyton Manning-Demaryius Thomas makes sense as a Week 17 tournament stack. It might be slightly contrarian with Peyton's recent struggles scaring some owners off.
Arizona @ San Francisco
The 36.5-point Vegas total on Cards-Niners is easily the lowest of Week 17. My favorite play in this game is the 49ers' defense, which checks multiple boxes as a streamer. The Niners are playing at home and against a putrid Cardinals offense, which will be quarterbacked by Ryan Lindley. Lindley was so bad in last Sunday night's loss to Seattle that coach Bruce Arians originally intended to start raw fourth-round rookie Logan Thomas over him against the Niners. Instead, Thomas flopped in practice and Arians has turned back to Lindley. Across eight NFL games (five starts), Lindley has completed under 50% of his passes with a 0:8 TD-to-INT ratio, 16 sacks absorbed, and two lost fumbles. Although the 49ers blew their Week 16 game versus San Diego, they did intercept Philip Rivers three times -- including a 49-yard pick six -- while generating three sacks, and appear to still be playing hard despite no playoff hopes. I see San Francisco's defense as a high-floor, high-ceiling play this week.
Detroit @ Green Bay
Lions-Packers is for all the NFC North marbles. The real-life implications are major, though no one's matchup on either side especially stands out. I do think it's worth noting that Calvin Johnson has had consistent success burning Packers DC Dom Capers' defense, generating stat lines of 6-101-1, 10-118, 5-143-1, 11-244-1, and 6-82-0 in these teams' last five meetings. Understandably, Matthew Stafford tends to resort to heaving footballs in Megatron's direction when things break down around him, and Green Bay's defense brings enough pressure to cause havoc for the Lions' quarterback. The Packers are eighth in the NFL in sacks (39) and caused three Stafford turnovers when Detroit hosted Green Bay in Week 3. Johnson finished with ten targets. It wouldn't surprise me if Stafford has a bit of a rough Week 17 game, but Megatron still emerges with a good-looking box score.
St. Louis @ Seattle
Coming off a 7-113 line in last Sunday night's beatdown of Arizona, Doug Baldwin appears ticketed for another solid performance versus the visiting Rams. A first-degree hamstring injury to Jermaine Kearse frees up targets for Baldwin at slot and Z receiver, where those two have generally rotated based on personnel package. LCB E.J. Gaines' concussion may force the Rams to turn back to oft-burned rookie Lamarcus Joyner at slot corner. St. Louis benched Joyner a month and a half ago for poor performance. Baldwin went to town on the Rams in these clubs' Week 7 meeting, dropping a 7-123-1 line on ten targets. Undersized (5'10/189) with just three touchdowns over his last 16 starts, Baldwin is best viewed as a high-floor, low-ceiling WR3 option against the Rams. His Week 17 ceiling could be raised by Kearse's absence, however.
Carolina @ Atlanta
Steven Jackson (quad) won't play in Sunday's NFC South title game, reducing Atlanta's backfield to a two-man timeshare of Jacquizz Rodgers and Devonta Freeman. Both undersized scatbacks, Rodgers and Freeman figure to platoon fairly evenly after "Quizz" finished Week 16 with 12 touches while playing 48% of the Falcons' offensive snaps, compared to Freeman's eight touches on 37% of the downs. Both are in play as cap-saving options on FanDuel, where Rodgers is priced at the minimum ($4,500). Freeman's cost ($5,100) is affordable as well. Freeman brings more playmaking ability to the table and would be the higher-ceiling bet. The Falcons' coaching staff has long had a soft spot for Rodgers, who is an excellent pass protector. I think Rodgers will end up with more snaps than Freeman and quite possibly more touches. The Panthers are 24th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA. Because the Falcons are without their theoretical early-down bellcow runner, expect OC Dirk Koetter to primarily attack the Panthers in pass-oriented formations. Neither Freeman nor Rodgers is a good bet for more than 12 carries in this game. I suspect they'll combine for 18-22.
Sunday Night Football
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
At first glance, Le'Veon Bell's FanDuel cost ($9,400) has soared to the point where he seems tough to fit into lineups. This week, however, I think there are enough value plays across the board to treat Le'Veon as a must-start in Week 17 daily leagues. When these teams played in Cincinnati three weeks ago, Le'Veon shredded DC Paul Guenther's defense for 235 yards and three touchdowns. This game will be played on Bell's home turf. Bell has handled 21 or more touches in five straight weeks and figures to remain the focal point of OC Todd Haley's offense in a crucial game for the Steelers, who can sew up the AFC North title with a win. Ranked No. 29 in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA, the Bengals allow the fifth most fantasy points to running backs, including the eighth most receptions (85). Find a way to get Bell into your lineup.
