Quarterback Shuffle Up: Andrew Luck shows the way

It would be lovely to have a snappy tier name for my quarterback rankings and groupings, but all the good tier puns are already taken. So we’ll keep shuffling about.

You’ll disagree with many of these prices and ranks because that’s why we have a game. Try to stay grounded and rational with your players, it’s one of the most important skills in your fantasy toolbox.

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The prices are unscientific and just a way to compare the players. When players are at the same price, it means they are considered even. I do not compare prices with other shuffles (or compare prices between different positions), and I do every shuffle from scratch. Season to taste, and your own particular league rules and parameters.

Tier 1
$31 Andrew Luck
$30 Cam Newton
$28 Aaron Rodgers
$28 Russell Wilson
$27 Drew Brees
$25 Carson Palmer

Newton’s price is almost a superfluous exercise to me, because there’s not a chance I’m going to pay full retail for his 2015 season. We skate to where the puck is, not where it’s been. He’s still got a ridiculously-high floor, given his rushing abilities and his demonstrated durability, and his weapons look strong (Kelvin Benjamin back, Devin Funchess ascending, Greg Olsen a rock). But the ADP pushes me out of the showroom. There are too many similar stocks I can get later, or quality values in the lower tiers.

The main reason I give Luck the slight edge on Newton is the difference between Indy’s defense (mediocre) and Carolina’s defense (excellent). Every Indianapolis script will begin the same way, with the idea that Luck has to be Superman (sorry, Cam) for the Colts to compete, let alone win. Luck averaged 604 pass attempts in his first three seasons, and is also a willing and productive scrambler. The Colts don’t have the deepest receiving tree, but T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Philip Dorsett and Dwayne Allen should be good enough. And it’s not like a ground game chaired by 33-year-old Frank Gore is likely to commandeer the offense.

Wilson’s my favorite current quarterback, talking real football only. And part of what he gives up in expected volume he’ll make back with his ridiculous efficiency. It’s also possible Seattle’s defense could be a little less formidable than what we’re used to, and I dare Wilson to score just one rushing touchdown again . . . I give Palmer a slight bump down for his age and possible emotional scar tissue from the 2016 playoffs. I’m also a tiny bit concerned about the dings of Arizona’s skill players, though I could be overly cautious there. If everyone is healthy, no one has more toys than the Cardinals . . . It hasn’t been a smooth summer for Brees, but Sean Payton and the Saints certainly deserve the benefit of the doubt. No changes, yet.

Tier 2
$21 Philip Rivers
$20 Blake Bortles
$20 Ben Roethlisberger
$18 Eli Manning
$18 Kirk Cousins
$18 Tom Brady

I still don’t trust the Chargers rushing game or defense, and Rivers has the deepest receiving group of his career. Keep in mind he was an absolute fantasy monster until Keenan Allen got hurt in the middle of 2015. He’s also reunited with Ken Whisenhunt; that pair has made beautiful music together in the past. In some pools, you’ll get the Tier 2 Rivers at a Tier 3 price; lucky you . . . It’s not a perfect comp, but the Cousins narrative is similar to the Rivers one; I don’t trust the backs, but I love the depth of the receiving group (especially if Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson stay healthy).

I don’t buy into the “Angry Brady” narrative, because that story completely ignores how absurdly competitive Brady already is. I’d like Brady’s fantasy value more if he were better at working deep and outside the numbers, or if I knew Dion Lewis would be close to 100 percent for the majority of the year. Mind you, Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett not only are obvious difference-makers, but their skill sets line up perfectly with what Brady does best. But at the end of the day, I’d prefer not to play a man down for a month of the season, especially at a fantasy position that has such ridiculous depth. Pro-Brady is a viable path, sure, but so is a move in the opposite direction.

Tier 3
$15 Andy Dalton
$14 Marcus Mariota
$14 Tony Romo
$14 Tyrod Taylor
$12 Derek Carr
$12 Matt Ryan
$12 Matthew Stafford
$11 Jameis Winston
$10 Ryan Fitzpatrick

Although I’m not going to get drunk on Injury Optimism with Tyler Eifert, I find myself scooping up most of the other primary Bengals, especially in Best Ball and no-maintenance formats. Specifically in those formats, projectable, quality depth is a currency, just like upside is. Remember, Dalton was playing at a Pro Bowl-level last year before he busted his thumb . . . Not a chance I’m chasing Winston’s rushing touchdowns, most of which came in “hair on fire” catch-up mode. Granted, some of that will be paid back with a likely rapport improvement between Winston and Mike Evans, though I sense most of the industry trusts Evans a little more than I do . . . If Oakland’s defense is as good as many expect it to be, Carr’s volume is surely coming down. Meanwhile, Stafford probably won’t be as efficient as Carr, but the Lions offense will probably need another 600 pass attempts or so.

Tier 4
$9 Ryan Tannehill
$8 Alex Smith
$8 Joe Flacco
$7 Jay Cutler
$5 Brock Osweiler
$5 Teddy Bridgewater

I’ve downshifted into “believe it when I see it” mode with Tannehill, though Adam Gase can’t be any worse than the Banana Convention that led the Dolphins last year . . . I’d probably go higher on Bridgewater if the Vikings weren’t perfectly designed to win through defense and the running game. It’s interesting: Adrian Peterson does best in a standard set but loathes the shotgun; Bridgewater is the other way around.

Tier 5
$4 Robert Griffin
$3 Sam Bradford
$2 Blaine Gabbert
$1 Mark Sanchez
$1 Jared Goff

Griffin has some fun toys to play with in Cleveland, but let’s not forget how lost he’s been for three seasons . . . Chip Kelly performed all sorts of QB miracles before losing his way in 2015. Gabbert is his biggest challenge yet, even past the Nick Foles project. And obviously the 49ers have below-average skill-position talent . . . Sanchez could be losing his job to Trevor Siemian as I post this, and Goff is no sure thing to start on opening day, either.