Señor Smoke (USP)Sometimes we try to paint a pretty picture in this space. Other times, it's a color-by-numbers job. Load up the bullets and let's see where they take us.

• Jordan Walden is one player I'd completely walk away from in any mixed league, as I don't anticipate him getting the closing gig back. First and foremost we have to consider how quickly the Angels demoted him from the post — perhaps Walden's 10 blown saves from 2011 left a mark — but the bigger problem for Walden is that his teammates are a lot better than him, at least through the opening quarter of the season.

Jered Weaver cruised through seven San Diego innings Friday (3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 4 K), then handed the ball to his capable bullpen. Scott Downs worked a perfect eighth (1K, just 12 pitches) and Ernesto Frieri locked up (1BB, 2 K). A stress-free night for Mike Scioscia, especially after the Angels scored three ninth-inning runs to extend the margin (and negate any possible save).

Is there any significance to Downs pitching ahead of Frieri in what was, at the time, a close game? Or was it was a matter of matchups, with Will Venable (lefty, earlier homer) and Chase Headley (better as a lefty) due up first and third in the eighth? The order of pitchers isn't always a flashing red light for us to consider, but I get the idea Frieri has become trustable to the point that he might be sharing the save assignments soon.

The stats back up both of these pitchers. Downs hasn't allowed a run over 12 innings (8 H, 2 BB, 7 K), and Frieri's combined time between the Angels and Padres has been electric (17.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 8 BB, 30 K). It's an interesting contrast between the two — Downs is the control lefty who pitches to a lot of contact, while Frieri is a fireballing righty who piles up the strikeouts but occasionally comes into problems with walks. I wouldn't be surprised if they both get past double-digit saves from here on out, with Scioscia free to play the matchups (something he seems prepared to do). Either way, they're doing a good job blocking Walden from any fantasy relevance.

• A few readers were asking about Adam Wainwright in the previous edition, so let's take up the case here. I'm still in on Wainwright, all the way in. His K/BB rate sits at 2.5 (more than acceptable) and he's inducing ground balls 55.6 percent of the time. His biggest problems have been sequencing (63.6 strand rate) and the gopher ball (21.9 HR/FB). Even if you want to tax Wainwright somewhat for the misplaced fastballs or rolling curves that have left the park, that clip has no shot at continuing.

Golden God? (USP)

Today's Opening Time is a think piece about a mid-level pitcher struggling with his own limitations (and his club's limitations) in the harsh face of stardom. It's in consideration for the front page, but don't tell the Pirates.

Roto Theory has grown up significantly through the years, but sometimes the best rules are the ones you've held from the early days.

Draft hitting early, figure out pitching later. That's been the basic maxim I've been working off for two decades. It's not complicated, maybe it's not marketing-friendly, but it seems to fit the shape of the assignment. Hitting is the more reliable part of the game, while pitching is an unnatural act with a ton of moving parts; mound stars can go down at any reason, and fresh faces emerge at all times.

James McDonald, come on down. It's all happening. Enjoy your membership privileges in the Circle of Trust.

McDonald's incendiary stuff was on full display in his Thursday turn at Washington. He had a no-hitter and 10 strikeouts through five innings before running out of gas in the sixth; the Nats eventually knocked McDonald out with four hits and three runs in that inning. But McDonald still emerged with his third victory and a fantasy line that anyone will happily accept (5.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 11 K). Pop in the demo and see what you make of it.

Baby, you're a big star now (USP)

Another week, another shuffle. Today's assignment is the outfield. You won't find Miguel Cabrera, Cliff Lee or Fernando Rodney on this list: those cats aren't outfielders. And this list does not include players currently on the DL; because injured played have largely-relative values, I don't see the point of ranking them in this exercise. Do what you like. Slot them however you feel comfortable. Pretend Carl Crawford is the cure to all that ails you.

Here's how the shuffle process goes down this year. First, I rank the position in question, from scratch. I don't look at preseason ranks, I don't look at last month's ranks — those collections are dead to me. All I'm trying to do is figure out how I arrange the commodities from today-forward. (Don't obsess over the specific dollar amounts, all that matters is how the players relate to one another. Assume a 5x5 roto scoring system.)

Then, I take some distance from the ranks. A good meal, maybe a burrito and a margarita or two. You don't want to be too close to the first draft. Finally, I come back from dinner, tweak a ranking or two, add some comments, and interact with you fine folks.

Sound good? Bueno. Make the jump, and let's try to figure out this made-up world of stats, together. (Off to the cantina. Back shortly.) 

Murray is all smiles after receiving a clean bill of health. (US Presswire)

Before his season was derailed by a fractured foot last December, DeMarco Murray was one of fantasy football's rising stars. Incumbent Felix Jones, presumably constructed from tissue paper and held together by Scotch tape, again failed to deliver meaningful numbers due to physical setbacks, thrusting the rookie into the spotlight. Though he crossed the chalk only once in seven starts, Murray racked up an impressive 104.5 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per touch as the primary rusher, quickly developing into a reliable RB2 in 12-teamers. He also ranked ninth in yards after contact per attempt among qualified rushers, an excellent indicator of his physicality and game-breaking abilities.

This offseason, followers have clogged the Noise's Twitter log with questions about Murray's status and perceived draft day value. Earlier this week, fanatics finally received some clarity. The Cowboy is officially back in the saddle. From the Dallas Morning News:

Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray said Monday that the ankle injury that prematurely ended his standout rookie season has healed and he has been cleared by team doctors.

"It's great," Murray told ESPN's SportsCenter. "I've been officially cleared by our doctors and I've been doing everything the past month or two without any limitations. I feel great."

Assuming he enters camp at full speed, Murray will the 'Boys' undisputed lead dog this season. Because he's an explosive open-field runner with plus hands and has very little competition, he could net close to 300 total touches, making him a high-end RB2 in almost any format. His current Round 2 price point (14.8 ADP) is accurate.

The Dallas offensive line is a work in progress, but Big D's potent passing attack should greatly enhance the ground game's overall execution. At this point, consider Murray a borderline top-10 back who could easily join the position's elites with a full, healthy season.

Brandon Morrow's LA start was a snap (US Presswire)

The AL East narrative is something I talk about often in this space, the idea that it's very dangerous to try to make a mixed-league living with pitchers in this division. Four of the five parks in the group are friendly with runs and/or homers, and there are some loaded bats with these teams besides.

But every so often you need to go to the numbers and make sure everything is calibrated properly, verify the compass is set right. That's today's assignment. And as it turns out, the narrative holds; the division is as dangerous as ever. The crooked number is alive and well in the big-boy division.

You won't find the AL East represented at the very top of the runs board (that's where Texas sits), and the Cardinals currently are second in the majors in scoring (it will be interesting if they can stick there as injuries keep hammering them). But once those two clubs are out of the way, the east-coast bias starts kicking in.

Boston is tied for third in the majors, sitting at 200 runs; if the Red Sox sputter out in 2012, it won't be on account of the bats. The Orioles and Yankees (177 runs) are tied for fifth, followed by the Blue Jays (175 runs, eighth) and Rays (171 runs, ninth). There's no easy mark in this group, no day off, no matchup to exploit. All five teams are in the Top 8 in homers as well, with Baltimore (60 home runs) and New York (58 John Sterling monologues) showing the way.

Don't be tripped up by antiquated ways of evaluating offense as you look at team stats. The Jays are 24th in batting average, but so what? The name of the game is crossing home plate. Tampa Bay (16th) and Baltimore (14th) also lag in average, but it doesn't matter.

Hamilton & Beltre (US Presswire)

As you probably already know, Josh Hamilton currently leads the American League in basically every major hitting category, by a wide margin. He has a five-homer lead over Curtis Granderson, a 14-RBI edge over Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion, and his batting average is 36 points higher than Derek Jeter's. He ranks first in the AL in slugging percentage at .848, which puts him 215 points ahead of the dude in second place, David Ortiz.

Hamilton is coming off one of the most impressive one-week individual slugging performances in baseball history, going 13-for-28 with nine home runs and 16 RBIs from May 6 to May 12. Only Frank Howard has ever hit more bombs in a single week. He's good, this Hamilton fella — very good.

Yet during his nine-homer binge, he was also one of the more heavily traded stocks in fantasy.

Golden oldie Ibanez is still a fantasy goodie (US Presswire)

Old. Decrepit. Antiquated. These were just a few words fanalysts used to describe Raul Ibanez preseason.

Though it's true the centenarian once decked Bill the Butcher in a bare-knuckle boxing match in 1851, it appears he has plenty left in the tank. Sipping from the Fountain of Youth, Ibanez has posted numbers most owners would fawn over if not tallied by an supposed over-the-hill hitter. His .273-7-21-10-2 line over just 88 at-bats checks in at No. 38 among eligible outfielders and No. 147 overall, ahead of coveted juniors Justin Upton, Alex Gordon and Drew Stubbs.

Enough with the age discrimination, mixed leaguers. The venerable Yankee deserves your consideration, at the very least.

Thumbing through the baseball annals, a handful of major leaguers fended off the corrosive effects of Father Time to post quality numbers during their age 39 campaigns. Since 2000, notable names Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Steve Finley and Andres Galaragga each clubbed 25-plus homers and drove in 90 or more runs at an identical point on the career arc. Sure, his elite days with the Mariners and Phillies are firmly entrenched in the past, but there are several underlying signs that suggest Ibanez could join his geriatric predecessors in the exclusive 25-90 Club 39.

[ Jeff Passan: Who's most likely to land Josh Hamilton on the free-agent market?]

For starters, the crafty veteran has sported an eagle eye. He's sliced his K-rate in half ('11: 18.4, '12: 9.3), seeing more pitches while drawing more walks. A ground pounder in his final two stints with the Phillies ('10 GB/FB: 1.19, '11: 1.32), he's also transformed into a fly-ball hitter (0.88 GB/FB in '12), routinely turning on offerings over the inner half in an attempt to take advantage of the friendly Yankees Stadium jet stream. Of the five homers he's smacked at the House Jeter Built, four were pulled. Even more impressive, Ibanez ranks second to Josh Hamilton in no doubters according to Hittracker. Balls off his bat are sailing, not sneaking, over the fence, an excellent indicator of bat speed and strength. Despite his advanced age, the man needs no Boniva. And based on his two steals (In the past, pandas mated more frequently than Ibanez stole bags), he apparently doesn't need a motorized scooter either.

Eric Hosmer needs to work on his Buffalo Stance (USP)

The Albert Pujols mystery in Anaheim has turned into a nifty screen for Kansas City's Eric Hosmer. If not for Albert's much-ballyhooed struggles, more of the fantasy public would be zeroing in on the Royals, trying to figure out what happening with the struggling sophomore (.182/.248/.336) Let's go under the hood (Fangraphs is your best friend, gamer) and see what we can find.

One thing we can say for Hosmer: despite his horrendous percentages, his counting numbers really aren't that bad. He's on pace to knock 23 homers, score 74 runs and drive in 83 more. That's less than we expected back in March, sure, but it's not a bad haul for someone hitting Blink 182.

Outlier batting averages come with outlier BABIPs, so no one should be surprised by Hosmer's .175 mark there. There's been a modest dip in his line-drive rate but his BB/K trend is heading in the right direction (walks are up, strikeouts are down). He's cut down on his swings outside the strike zone and his overall contact numbers look fine, so this doesn't seem like an approach problem.