Positional Fallers: SG
The shooting guard position is often one that’s filled with volatile contributors, uneven projections and surprise performances during the NBA season, and that was especially true ahead of the 2014-15 campaign beginning. We saw some owners reach for high-rising stars like Klay Thompson a little earlier than others would have projected and we saw others reach for fading stars like Kobe Bryant in the hopes that they’d offer one final dynamite season before sailing into the sunset. The Klay vs. Kobe decision could have been one that defined your season, and if it did, odds are it’s not a battle that you’ve won.
I hope I don’t get a call from the Kobe-copter after this one.
Lance Stephenson was picked before Jimmy Butler. Andrew Wiggins was picked after Kevin Martin. There are some laughable happenings from last season’s draft class, and we’re in for a major shakeup as we move toward next season.
Kobe and Co. are on this list for the wrong reasons, and I’m getting a big red Sharpie out now to scratch these guys from my pre-ranks now. Click here to see next season’s expected point guard fallers.
Kobe Bryant, SG Los Angeles Lakers
2014 ADP: 27.2 overall, Round 2.9
Key Stats: 22.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.3 steals, 3.7 TO, 1.5 triples, 37.3% shooting, 81.3% FT shooting
Kobe Bryant is my favorite player of all time. I’ve grown up with him being synonymous with the Los Angeles Lakers and there is no doubt he’ll go down as one of the top three all-time in the storied franchise’s history. But going into what is likely his final season and after coming off three straight major injuries (knee, Achilles, shoulder), you’re much better off if you let someone else bite off a piece of nostalgia and draft Bryant for the 2015-16 campaign.
On the surface, Kobe still has the look of someone who can help your fantasy basketball team. Despite appearing in just 35 contests, Bryant posted better than 20/5/5 while kicking in contributions in the peripheral categories. And while those are impressive numbers, especially considering the role Bryant was forced to play on a sad-sack Lakers team, there is simply no ignoring or denying the impact his volume shooting had on owners. Averaging more than a whopping 20 shots per game (20.4), Bryant managed to connect at just a 37.3% clip, the lowest mark of his career. It was the first and only time Bryant has ever shot below 40% from the floor, which is pretty impressive considering he’s averaged at least 20 shots per game across 13 seasons, but winning fantasy basketball leagues aren’t about lifetime achievement awards.
Kobe is facing an uncertain role for a rapidly changing Lakers team. He’s going to get drafted too high based on name value alone (as always), and it’s insane to justify that price point for a player who has appeared in just 119 games over the last three seasons. The days of Kobe being drafted before guys like Klay Thompson (31.5) and Eric Bledsoe (38.6) are over.
Lance Stephenson, SG Charlotte Hornets
2014 ADP: 66.5 overall, Round 6.4
Key Stats: 8.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 2.1 TO, 0.3 triples, 37.6% shooting, 62.7% FT shooting
Before last season began, one piece of advice I gave out was to target Lance Stephenson. Not unlike Stephenson’s initial tenure in Charlotte, that was a colossal flop.
To quote Joey from Friends, Stephenson’s performance was abysmal last season. After looking like a breakout player on the verge of stardom during the 2013-14 season with the Indiana Pacers, Stephenson took a step back in every possible way after signing for Michael Jordan’s club. Billed as the starting shooting guard after inking a three-year, $27 million deal in free agency, Stephenson wound up playing just 25 games in the backcourt with averages of 10.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists on 38.6% shooting. The fact that those numbers are so much better than Stephenson’s season totals is a strong indication of how mightily Lance struggled to find a home in Charlotte. At no point did Stephenson show tangible signs of improvement within Steve Clifford’s system, and his 17.1% conversion rate from 3-point distance would be unfathomable had we not all been privileged to watch Stephenson’s broken jumper all season long.
Born Ready wasn’t prepared for anything, and his ADP looks beyond laughable considering he was outright dropped long before the All-Star break in a majority of fantasy leagues. There is literally zero chance that players like Jimmy Butler (68.6), Kyle Korver (69.5) and Bradley Beal (77.7) go after Stephenson this time around, and depending on the size of the roster in your league, Stephenson could very well be facing the biggest fall of any candidate on the list as he’s a prime DND (do not draft) candidate.
Kevin Martin, SG Minnesota Timberwolves
2014 ADP: 75.4 overall, Round 7.3
Key Stats: 20.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.9 TO, 1.9 triples, 42.7% shooting, 88.1% FT shooting
After being blessed with the No. 1 overall selection in the upcoming June NBA draft, there is no real role for Kevin Martin with the rebuilding Minnesota Timberwolves. While the case can be made that Martin can provide the Wolves with some much needed floor spacing, Minnesota needs to clear out as much time as possible for Andrew Wiggins and Shabazz Muhammad on the wing. With a healthy Ricky Rubio running the point and either Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor inside, Martin isn’t going to be a focal point even if he is on the roster. After Martin’s season was filled with injuries and trade rumors, two themes that have dogged him throughout his career, it’s hard to imagine 2015-16 being much different.
Although he did average 1.9 triples when he was on the floor, Martin’s 75 triple total (for the season) is not what we’d call a difference-making statistic. He had no business being drafted ahead of Victor Oladipo (75.5), Bradley Beal (77.7) or Giannis Antetokounmpo (103.8), and that’s not going to be something that repeats itself next year. Martin is a one-trick pony when things are going well, and there is no way he’s going to have the opportunity to average 20 points per game with this version of the Timberwolves.
Martin is a prime candidate to slide considerably into beyond Round 10, and even then there will be breakout players to gamble on instead of crusty veterans. There’s nothing “safe” about picking Martin.
Andre Iguodala, SG/SF Golden State Warriors
2014 ADP: 105.9 overall, Round 9.9
Key Stats: 7.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.1 TO, 1.0 triples, 46.6% shooting, 59.6% shooting
The Golden State Warriors are in the NBA Finals as the favorite to win the series, and their two highest-paid players in David Lee ($13 million) and Andre Iguodala ($11 million) are not even in the starting lineup. And while Iguodala plays an unorthodox role as the Warriors’ sixth man, Lee has fallen out of the rotation entirely less than two full seasons removed from being an All-Star. Iguodala is not going to suffer the same fate because of what he brings on the defensive end of the court for this team, but his days of relevancy are over for fantasy basketball owners so long as he continues in his current role.
Iguodala was being drafted ahead of specialists like J.R. Smith (106.1) and Danny Green (107.7). And while there were certainly some weird picks right around Iguodala’s neighborhood (Mike Miller-133.2, Nate Robinson-132.5), there were also values like Brandon Knight (112.1), Wilson Chandler (132.5) and Khris Middleton (141.7). All three of those players - and a whole host of others - will eclipse Iguodala on draft boards heading into next season.
If you removed Iguodala’s name from his stat line, no owner would be clamoring to have that player on his fantasy team. In what was an establishing trend that’s now concrete, Iguodala has become one of those players whose value in real life far exceeds what he does on the stat sheet, especially within the context of basketball that Golden State has found championship-level success with under head coach Steve Kerr.
