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NFL against the spread picks: If the Patriots win this ...

Frank Schwab
NFL writer

There aren’t many great teams in the NFL. You can argue there are only two, if you want to include the Dallas Cowboys. Only one if you don’t.

So there really aren’t too many teams that are going to challenge the New England Patriots this season (anything can happen in a one-game playoff, though). Someone will inevitably rise up and beat them over the remainder of the regular season, because weird results happen all the time in the NFL, but there aren’t many games on the schedule you’d expect them to lose.

This Sunday night is one of their few remaining challenges.

The Seattle Seahawks aren’t perfect, and the travel issue – short week after playing on Monday night, traveling east, playing a team coming off a bye – is not ideal. It’s not an easy pick because the Patriots aren’t just 7-1 straight up, they’re also 7-1 against the spread according to OddsShark. They’re dominating everyone they play. But in a league that is as parity-driven as ever, they at least have the talent to compete with the Patriots on their best day.

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And if the Seahawks can’t win on Sunday night, we’re probably looking at a 15-1 or 14-2 Patriots team.

I’ll take the Seahawks as 7.5-point underdogs (I’m picking them in the SuperContest too). I don’t think this will be the classic we saw last time these two teams played (I argued here why Super Bowl XLIX is the greatest NFL game ever played), but I don’t think Seattle gets blown out, either. If the Seahawks do get blown out, there’s not much hope for the rest of the NFL.

Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick square off again on Sunday night (AP)
Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick square off again on Sunday night. (AP)

Here are the against-the-spread picks for Week 10:

SUPERCONTEST

Eagles (pick ’em) over Falcons: I like the Falcons, especially on offense. But this is a tough road matchup. If the Eagles fall to 4-5, where is their season really heading? They need to win.

Redskins (-3) over Vikings: I still think the Vikings can be a good football team. But with all the things they’re trying to fix, this isn’t a good matchup for them. I think Washington is actually pretty good.

Chargers (-4) over Dolphins: The Dolphins have had a nice revival, but we still haven’t seen them play well on the road. Meanwhile, San Diego still looks like a pretty good team. (The Chargers are -3.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Steelers (-2.5) over Cowboys: The one thing we know about the Steelers this year (and, really, many years in the Mike Tomlin era) is that they simply don’t show up against bad teams. I figure, at 4-4, they’ll show up for the 7-1 Cowboys.

And the rest of the picks …

Browns (+10) over Ravens (picked Thursday): Cleveland really just is that bad.

Packers (-2.5) over Titans: This game epitomizes a tough week for picking. Of the 14 games this week, 10 of them have a spread of a field goal or less. And the Chargers are 3.5-point favorites. That makes for a fun slate of games, but good luck picking them. Most of these games are like Packers-Titans: You can talk yourself into either side, and you won’t feel all too happy about whatever side you finally choose.

Saints (-2.5) over Broncos: At this point, I just don’t have enough confidence in the Broncos’ offense. At least I know the Saints can move the ball, against any defense really.

Jets (-2) over Rams: It might be Bryce Petty at quarterback for the Jets. Maybe he gives them a spark. The Rams don’t have any spark right now.

Bears (+1.5) over Buccaneers: I keep thinking about last season, and how the Bears looked so awful early on, then looked pretty solid for a while. They sure looked OK against the Vikings the last time we saw them.

Panthers (-3) over Chiefs: This isn’t the best matchup for the Chiefs. The Panthers’ weakness is at cornerback, but who do the Chiefs have to exploit that? Especially when it looks like Jeremy Maclin will be out.

Texans (-1.5) over Jaguars: Do I feel great about picking the Texans as a road favorite? No. But I also can’t justify taking the Jaguars to beat any 5-3 team.

Cardinals (-13) over 49ers: I can’t pick San Francisco.

Bengals (+2.5) over Giants: My infatuation with the Bengals rebounding and becoming a good team at some point this season is probably wrong, but it’s too late to turn back now.

Last week: 7-6
Season to date: 61-71-1
SuperContest: 3-2 last week, 19-25-1 season

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!