Advertisement

NFL against the spread picks: The Raiders' chance to legitimize their start

frank schwab
NFL writer

In the 2011 season finale, the Oakland Raiders had a chance to make the playoffs. They lost 38-26 to the San Diego Chargers, ending that dream.

So we can’t say Sunday night is the biggest game the Raiders have had since losing Super Bowl XXXVII to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But it feels that way.

The Raiders are 6-2, with what has to be their best team since that AFC championship squad. And they host the Denver Broncos, also 6-2 and coming off a Super Bowl title. This is the moment for the Raiders to legitimize their start and stamp themselves as a contender not just in the AFC West, but the AFC. Maybe the entire NFL. It’s not like the field looks that strong this season, outside of Massachusetts.

It’s a fun matchup on Sunday night. The Raiders have done well in the passing game this season, and nobody stops the pass better than the Broncos. Oakland doesn’t have a good defense, but can the Broncos’ offense take advantage of it?

This is clearly the game of the week, fitting for its slot on “Sunday Night Football.” The spread is a pick ’em, and I’m picking the Broncos. I think their great secondary can limit Derek Carr and the passing game, and I’m not sure the Raiders have a counter-punch when that happens. But if the Raiders win, look out. We’d have to look at them in a different light at 7-2 with a win over the defending champs in their pocket.

Derek Carr leads the Raiders in Week 9's best matchup (AP)
Derek Carr leads the Raiders in Week 9’s best matchup (AP)

Here are the Week 9 against the spread picks:

SUPERCONTEST

Broncos (pick’ em) over Raiders: Explained above. On the flip side of a Raiders win, I wonder if a Broncos loss would be the first step in them considering a quarterback change.

Jaguars (+7) over Chiefs: No Alex Smith, maybe no Spencer Ware, and the chances of the backdoor cover with the weekly Blake Bortles Garbage Time Bonanza lead me to the Jaguars here. (The Jaguars are +9 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em spreads.)

Lions (+5.5) over Vikings: You’ve seen the Vikings offense lately. And having a sudden change at offensive coordinator is not easy to manage. Either way I think this game is close. (The line in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em is Lions +6.)

Giants (-2.5) over Eagles: The Giants are rested, and there has to be a sense of urgency from them. The Eagles are so up and down, it’s just hard to predict what you’re getting from them. (The Giants are -3 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Steelers (pick ’em) over Ravens: This line is either off the board in Las Vegas or shows the Steelers as a small favorite, now that it looks like Ben Roethlisberger will play. It’s a pick ’em in the SuperContest and Pittsburgh seems like the right way to go. In Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em this game is Steelers +2.5, so it’s an easy pick for that piece of it (I use the Yahoo’s lines for my season record).

And the rest of the picks …

Falcons (-3.5) over Buccaneers (picked Thursday): Matt Ryan is your MVP right now and I’m starting to wonder if he can hold off Tom Brady all year. He’s playing really well.

Cowboys (-7) over Browns: My guess is rookie Cody Kessler starts for the Browns. That’s the right move because he has shown some promise, though I think Josh McCown gives them a better chance to win now. The Cowboys have covered the spread five times in a row, according to OddsShark. It’s hard to pick a team to cover if you don’t think they can win straight up, and I don’t think the Browns can win straight up.

Jets (+3.5) over Dolphins: I’m just not willing to buy in to the idea the Dolphins are reborn. This is still a team that a few weeks ago looked like it was near the 49ers/Browns level.

Rams (+3) over Panthers: Maybe the Panthers had their awakening last week and now they’ll cruise. I still see a team with a really long injury list and issues that contributed to a 1-5 start. And they’re going against a Rams team that is scheduled to have one good performance before disappearing for another month.

Saints (-3) over 49ers: I know this is a trap game. I can’t help myself. I just can’t pick the 49ers over Drew Brees.

Packers (-7) over Colts: Lot of points to lay against Andrew Luck’s offense, but it’s hard to pick the Colts.

Titans (+5) over Chargers: Other than the Sunday night game, this might be the best game on a strange Week 9 slate. If the Titans win this one, we can start seriously talking about them as a contender in the AFC South.

Bills (+6.5) over Seahawks: I know the Seahawks are great at home, but I keep thinking … how will Seattle’s bad offensive line fare against a Bills defense that is tied for the NFL lead with 26 sacks? Until Seattle’s offense shows more life it’s hard to lay almost a touchdown with them.

Last week: 6-7
Season to date: 55-64-2
SuperContest: 4-1 last week, 16-23-1 season

Which teams in the NFL most need a championship? Plus: Week 9 picks

Subscribe to Grandstanding • iTunes • Stitcher • Soundcloud

– – – – – – –

Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!