Matchups: 49ers @ Rams
Monday Night Football
San Francisco @ St. Louis
Monday night's game sets up nicely for San Francisco to continue to play ground-and-pound football against a Rams team that has coughed up 610 yards and four rushing TDs on 124 carries (4.92 YPC). St. Louis' painfully overrated defense allows 5.97 yards per play, the fifth highest clip in the league. Over his last four games, Frank Gore has piled up 299 yards and a touchdown on 61 runs (4.90 YPC), with an additional score as a receiver. The furthest thing from "done," Gore entered Week 6 as the No. 11 overall fantasy running back and a borderline RB1 in this matchup. ... Reemphasizing the run, the 49ers have given rookie Carlos Hyde ten carries in back-to-back games. The second-round pick's snap count has quietly risen in three straight weeks. Hyde is just a low-end flex option at his current workloads, but he's worth stashing in all leagues. He would become an RB1 if something happened to Gore, taking over as San Francisco's every-down back. ... The Rams' defense was a ballyhooed fantasy pick entering the season, but has proven worthless. St. Louis pathetically has one sack through four games. The Rams rank "No. 1 in pass defense" because they're facing the fewest pass attempts per game (26.5) in the NFL; opponents are kicking their tail in the run game and on special teams. Enemy passers are completing 70.8% of their throws on Jeff Fisher's defense, whose 98.5 passer rating allowed is eighth worst in football. The Week 6 concern for Colin Kaepernick isn't his matchup, it's the possibility of San Francisco taking the air out of the ball and salting this game away on the ground. Currently fantasy's No. 11 quarterback, Kap is a borderline starter in 12-team leagues.
Kap's Weeks 1-5 target distribution: Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin 36; Stevie Johnson 19; Brandon Lloyd 15; Derek Carrier 10; Vernon Davis 9; Hyde 6; Gore 5; Vance McDonald 2. ... Injuries to Crabtree (foot) and Davis (back) provide further reason for coach Jim Harbaugh to pile up rushing attempts rather than attack St. Louis with the pass. ... Boldin rarely offers a high ceiling, but is the most stable fantasy option in the 49ers' pass-catcher corps. He dropped stat lines of 9-98 and 5-90-1 in last year's two meetings with the Rams. ... Considering Crabtree's frustrating foot situation -- he logged season lows in snap rate (59%), catches (1), and yards (16) in last Sunday's win over Kansas City -- I'd downgrade him to a WR3 option until he shows some semblance of consistency. Crabtree isn’t even on the Week 6 injury report, however, and this matchup is good enough to keep him squarely in the starting-lineup discussion. ... The same goes for Davis, who has two catches for eight yards combined since Week 2. One year after allowing the fewest fantasy points in football to tight ends, the Rams held Kyle Rudolph to 16 yards in Week 1, Brandon Myers to 33 in Week 2, and Jason Witten to 49 scoreless yards on four receptions in Week 3. After a Week 4 bye, St. Louis limited Brent Celek and Zach Ertz to a combined 6-54-0 line in Week 5. Tough to support as more than a low-end TE1, Davis has battled debilitating ankle and back injuries early this season. ... Although Johnson has hit pay dirt in back-to-back games, he's played exactly 12% of San Francisco's offensive snaps during that span. He simply doesn't play enough to be trusted as a WR3. ... Lloyd led the 49ers in Week 5 receiving (3-76), but is just a situational deep threat in the 49ers' offense. He's a fantasy WR5.
Monday night's 49ers-Rams game has the third lowest over-under of Week 6 at 43.5 points. 16th in per-game fantasy quarterback scoring on the season, Austin Davis is a mid-range to low-end two-QB-league play against San Francisco. Over the past three weeks, the Niners have held Nick Foles, Alex Smith, and Drew Stanton to a combined 55-of-106 passing (51.9%) for 597 yards (5.63 YPA) and a 3:3 TD-to-INT ratio. ... Davis' target distribution through three and a half games: Jared Cook 29; Brian Quick 26; Lance Kendricks and Kenny Britt 15; Austin Pettis 14; Benny Cunningham 13; Zac Stacy 12; Chris Givens 6; Tavon Austin 5; Stedman Bailey 3. ... The 49ers are 23rd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and last year held Cook to receiving lines of 4-45-0 and 3-49-0. A featured player in St. Louis' 2014 offense, Cook has quietly been a PPR asset with 19 catches through four games, but will likely have trouble getting free against 49ers shutdown coverage linebacker Patrick Willis. ... Quick is the best bet for fantasy points in the Rams' pass-catcher corps. The third-year breakout receiver runs most of his routes at opposing right cornerbacks and will take on up-and-down 49ers RCB Chris Culliver on Monday night. Consistently Davis' go-to wideout, Quick has 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in each of St. Louis' first four games.
With 13 targets, 137 yards, and a touchdown over his last two games, Britt has emerged on the fantasy WR4 radar. Unfortunately, he's still the No. 4 option in St. Louis' offense behind Cook, Quick, and the run game, and will deal with LCB Perrish Cox's smothering coverage in this game. Cox is a top-seven corner in PFF's cover grades. Britt remains a rotational receiver, playing 60% of the Rams' snaps in last week's loss to Philadelphia. For comparison, Quick played 80.5%. ... More snap rates from last week: Pettis 45%, Austin 30%, Bailey 21%. Givens was a healthy scratch. ... Over its last four games, San Francisco has limited opposing tailbacks to 192 scoreless yards on 60 runs (3.20 YPC). It's not a good week to lean on Stacy, who is coming off a Week 5 groin injury and missed practice time this week. The Rams were already mixing in Cunningham and UDFA Trey Watts, costing Stacy volume. With the Seahawks on deck, it could be a slow couple of weeks for Stacy's fantasy owners. With few exceptions, the Rams' rest-of-season run defense schedule is brutal and perhaps the toughest in the league. If Stacy has a good game soon, fantasy owners might be smart to consider selling him high.
Score Prediction: 49ers 23, Rams 17
