Matchup: Chargers @ Broncos
Thursday Night Football
San Diego @ Denver
Thursday night games have a notorious knack for not going according to script, but Chargers-Broncos has a 51.5-point over-under -- second highest of the week -- and should feature plenty of box-score fireworks. ... Julius Thomas steps to the front of this week's buffet line as Peyton Manning continues to feed the hungry. While Manning fed Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders Week 7 touchdowns following down weeks -- and dominator-of-men Demaryius Thomas got his, as usual -- Orange Julius went 4-27-0 in his slowest game since Week 8 of last season in last Sunday night's dissection of San Francisco. Three weeks ago, NBC's Tony Dungy confirmed on air that Peyton indeed prioritizes keeping all of his pass catchers happy week to week, force-feeding them whenever they're returning from disappointing games. With a whopping 34% of his targets coming in the red zone this season, expect Julius to refind pay dirt versus San Diego. ... Team passing success is a virtual lock for Denver against a Chargers defense that's been stung by Derek Carr and Alex Smith the past two weeks for 37-of-62 passing, 503 yards (8.11 YPA), five touchdowns, and one interception. You know the drill with Peyton. ... Manning's target distribution since Welker returned from suspension four games ago: Demaryius 46; Sanders 33; Julius 23; Welker 22; Ronnie Hillman 13; Jacob Tamme 4. ... I keep forgetting that Demaryius had a "slow" start. Through six games, he's on pace for 104 catches, 1,766 yards, and 16 touchdowns. His final 2013 stats were 92-1,430-14. It's scary -- I know -- but at age 26, Thomas is still getting better. Expect Thomas to have his way with a Chargers secondary that will be minus impressive rookie RCB Jason Verrett (shoulder) and likely LCB Brandon Flowers (concussion), as well. Thomas is going to run a ton of routes against regular burn victim Shareece Wright.
Since returning from his brief PEDs ban, Welker has turned in stat lines of 6-60-0, 7-58-0, 1-8-0, and 3-50-1, which extrapolate to 68-704-4 over a full 16-game slate. I'm sure Welker will have a random blowup game or two before the season is over, but he should be viewed as a fringe WR3 for now. His matchup will get a boost if Flowers does not play. The slot corner in San Diego's sub-package defense, Flowers' backup is journeyman Richard Marshall. ... Although his usage has begun to feel the effects of Welker's return, Sanders is no worse than a high-end WR3 in this favorable matchup with shootout potential. In spite of his mini-slump, Sanders ranks a still-useful 28th in fantasy wideout scoring over the past three weeks. ... Abnormally green when he was drafted in 2012, Ronnie Hillman is actually nine months younger than Montee Ball, and only eight months older than new Broncos No. 2 back Juwan Thompson, who is an undrafted rookie. Billed as just a "change-of-pace back" by GM John Elway during his first two NFL seasons, Hillman has improved significantly as an inside runner and pass protector as a third-year pro, while proving a far better fit than Ball for Denver's running game, which emphasizes outside-zone runs and requires more perimeter speed from its tailback. On an absolute roll, Hillman has compiled 45 touches the past two weeks and averaged 4.49 YPC against the Jets, Cardinals, and 49ers' stout run defenses over the last three. Springing leaks against the run, San Diego served up 235 yards on 51 carries (4.61 YPC) to Raiders and Chiefs tailbacks in Weeks 6-7. Suddenly flirting with legitimate RB1 value, Hillman is making a case for Denver's every-down back job even when Ball (groin) returns.
In last year's two regular season meetings with Denver, San Diego attempted to both limit Peyton's field time and protect its vulnerable defense with a ball-control approach, winning the time-of-possession battles 38:22 and 39:21. The Chargers have built their offense specifically to play in this manner, drafting mauler offensive linemen and stockpiling running backs. Three of those running backs are now on the shelf, of course, leaving Branden Oliver to perform every-down duties. Oliver's tough matchup does make him more of an RB2 than the RB1 he's been the past two weeks. Through six games, Denver's defense has held opposing tailbacks to a paltry 310 yards on 107 carries (2.90 YPC). Per Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA metric, only the Lions, Seahawks, and Bills are playing stouter up front than the Broncos this season. As Oliver is unlikely to break long runs on Thursday night, fantasy owners have to hang their hats on his voluminous role and goal-line-score potential. All three of Oliver's touchdowns this season have come from 15 yards out or closer. ... Philip Rivers gets his toughest matchup to date versus a Denver defense that ranks second in the NFL in both completion rate (58.5) and YPA (6.3) allowed, third in sacks (21) despite an early-season bye, and fifth in passer rating against (80.6). Still an every-week QB1, there's a chance game flow could force Rivers to go toe-to-toe with Peyton, trading touchdowns in a high-scoring affair. San Diego's quick-hitting pass-game approach should keep Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware from getting home consistently. Rivers does offer a bit more risk than usual, but ample upside if the game turns into a shootout.
Rivers' Weeks 1-7 target distribution: Keenan Allen 52; Antonio Gates 42; Eddie Royal 39; Malcom Floyd 32; injured Donald Brown 18; Oliver 15; Ladarius Green 14. ... Enemy No. 1 wideout stats against the Broncos through six games: T.Y. Hilton 5-41-0, Dwayne Bowe 3-40, Percy Harvin 7-42-0, Michael Floyd 1-7-0, Eric Decker 6-54-1, Michael Crabtree 4-27-0. Just a WR3 this season, Allen owners can look to last year's four touchdowns in three meetings with Denver, including a 6-142-2 line in the playoffs. The 2013 Broncos only had RCB Chris Harris for one of those games and LCB Aqib Talib for none, of course. Both Harris and Talib are playing at shutdown levels this season, particularly Harris. Per Pro Football Focus, the contract-year corner has permitted just 21 yards on 15 targets since Denver's Week 4 bye. ... Floyd also has a difficult matchup as a pure perimeter receiver. He'll run even more routes at Harris and Talib than Allen, who gets more usage underneath and over the middle. Although Floyd is never a bad bet to make a big play downfield or in the red zone at 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, this is probably not a game where he's a particularly attractive start. ... Green was not targeted in last week's loss to Kansas City, playing a year-low eight snaps. He remains a TE2 stash only in 14- and 16-team leagues. ... After a piping-hot start for the second straight year, Royal has begun his annual fade. He's a sub-package slot receiver in a spread-the-wealth offense. A fantasy WR4/5, Royal has been targeted five times or fewer in each of his last three games. ... Banged up at linebacker, the Broncos' defense is vulnerable to tight ends. Despite an early bye, they've allowed the 11th most receptions (34) and 13th most receiving yards (354) in the league to the position. With seven touchdowns through seven games, Gates is a solid bet to hit pay dirt in Denver.
Score Prediction: Broncos 30, Chargers 24
