Use It or Lose It

Jimmy Butler is the story of the season. It’s not the Cavs taking time to gel, Anthony Davis blossoming at age 21, or the Warriors lighting it up this season — the Blazers are just a half-game back, by the way. In Butler's last seven games, he averaged 26.4 points, 7.4 boards, 3.1 assists, 1.9 steals, 1.4 blocks, 1.4 treys and 0.7 turnovers on 49.9 percent from the field and 88.7 percent from the line. That’s good for the No. 1 spot during that span on total fantasy value.

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Seriously, though. How did this happen? He had just a 44.6 effective field goal percentage (eFG%) last season and was one of the most inefficient players in the NBA. This season he’s up to 52.1 eFG% and it’s not just that either. Let’s contrast and compare his shot charts from this season (top) and last season (bottom):

He’s not really excelling anywhere, but the big difference is getting shots at the rim. While increasing his shooting percentage at the rim from 57.0 to 63.2 percent isn’t huge, his shot distribution of 46.3 percent in the paint this year compared to just 38.6 is explains a lot. Butler is also getting a similar amount of his buckets via an assist, so he hasn’t improved moving without the ball quite as much.

The impressive part is how much better he is off the dribble. Here’s a comparison how he’s done on shooting the ball based on how many dribbles he’s taken before his shots. This season is on top:

The multiple-dribble shots are really where he is shining. Most of the time, players who decrease their shot frequency on no-dribble shots will see a drop in efficiency. Butler isn’t really getting a ton of cheapies in transition and he’s only increased his shooting percentage on his jumper just five percent. It’s all about shot selection and beating guys off the dribble, which is something that superstars do. His season is no fluke as far as being a great scorer goes.

Another big surprise is his usage lately. Before the injury to Derrick Rose, Butler was not a focal point whatsoever. Before thanksgiving, he only had a 14.2 usage while he was on the court with Rose. In Butler’s last five games all with Derrick Rose, Butler has a usage rate of 21.3, which doesn’t sound like a heck of a lot. However, he’s playing 41.3 minutes per game and is leading the league in that department.

Bottom line: Jimmy’s got some new moves and Jimmy Minutes has transformed to Jimmy Buckets.

The Hornets - The other big story from Monday was Al Jefferson going down. He is going to miss at least the next two games and if last night is any indication, it’s going to be longer than that. Jefferson was in pain and he had very little interest in isolation before checking out for good in the second half — he loves post-up isolation most nights. What’s worse is that he’s not a very quick healer and generally speaking he’s missed more time than expected on his injuries. Plus, it took an extremely long time for him to get over his plantar fasciitis. Considering only DeMarcus Cousins and Chris Bosh have higher usage rates at the center position than Jefferson’s 27.0, the Hornets are going to need a lot of help. So what now?

The one big thing is that Kemba Hudley Walker is going to carry the Hornets now and he’s already on a roll, too. After barely putting up usable output in fantasy standard leagues due to shooting only 36.6 percent in November, he’s been No. 15 in the month of December. In his last nine games, Walker has posted a 29.1 usage rate in 36.6 minutes per game. He has an impressive 50.6 effective field goal percentage in that span and it has a lot to do with his shooting. Here’s a quick look at his shot chart in his last nine:

That’s a fluky shot chart due to so many of his mid-range shots going in. He’s not too adept at getting to the rim and finishing there, so the eFG% is likely going south from that 50 spot mentioned earlier. Still, the usage rate is likely going to be over 30 now, so Kemba is right at the top of the list you should be eyeing in DFS most nights.

Bismack Biyombo is going to get the start for Hornets while Big Al is down, but he’s still not going to be on the floor too much. After the Al Jefferson injury last night, he didn’t play and wasn’t out there in the second half at all. The good news is that he’s been solid on rebounding and his blocks are there, but he’s not a big part of the offense. Considering he has a 15.8 offensive rebounding rate and just a 12.6 usage, the Hornets don’t use him in offensive sets. Biyombo also hasn’t made a single shot outside of eight feet on the year. He’s probably only going to play in the low 20s at best and I’d peg him in the high teens. He’s not a guy you should trust in DFS.

Taking it a step further, the Hornets used just one lineup in overtime: on Monday Kemba Walker, Brian Roberts, Gerald Henderson, Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller. Coach Steve Clifford loves him some Brian Roberts and he even used him in several cases over Lance Stephenson before the injury to Lance. Also, that lineup was used for seven minutes in the fourth quarter. Still, the matchup was probably a factor against the Bucks and the Hornets won’t be able to get away with that against bigger teams. Let’s look at everyone else, too.

It’s worth noting that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist played literally two seconds in the final 12 minutes of the game. His rebounding numbers are pretty good, but he’s not blocking shots, getting steals or really doing anything else to complement him. His usage rate is just too low to count on him on DFS and he’s going to need some sort of miracle to climb into the standard league convo.

Marvin Williams played the vast majority of his playing time at power forward, which should continue. While he did play a season-high 36 minutes, he only had a usage rate of 10.8. He’ll probably only be in the 15 neighborhood sans Al, which means he’ll likely be a low double-digit scorer. Williams had 14 boards last night thanks to a 38.2 defensive rebounding rate. Yeah, that’s not sustainable. While he’s not a great guy for season-long leagues, he should be a very nice guy for DFS over the next two games because is price is so low.

Cody Zeller was the center for the Hornets last night for a big chunk of the game and his minutes should change a bit. They were plummeting before the injury to Jefferson, but now they’re likely going to be in the high 20s. Still, he’s played just 23.3 minutes per game on the season and only could put together 0.7 blocks and 5.2 boards. He’s not an option Wednesday against the Rockets, but he’s someone to watch for on Friday vs. the Cavs and Saturday vs. the Magic. Also, I would not be surprised to see him move to the bench in favor of Marvin.

Gerald Henderson became a whole different player on Monday with 19 points, four rebounds, five assists, two steals, one block and one 3-pointer. His upside still isn’t going to be great because of the lack of D and 3-pointers, but the points should be there enough to consider him in DFS.

Lance Stephenson should be back, but he's been a disaster. He'll be worth stashing in standard leagues, but I wouldn't set the bar too high.

The Heat - Shifting gears, I guess we have to talk about Danny Granger, right? He posted a 100.0 eFG% and a 21.9 usage rate in 32.3 minutes on Monday night. In simpler terms, that led to a season-high 21 points and six 3-pointers. It was also his second consecutive game making 7-of-10 from the field.

The Heat are going to shift away from small ball as far as their starting lineup goes, which means Granger is going to operate as a backup to Luol Deng and Dwyane Wade. Although, in the 48 minutes last night, Deng as a stretch four for about 22 minutes against the Magic. If you’re into specifics, here are the Heat lineups from last night:

All that Deng stretch four stuff should help Granger get his minutes in the 20s. As much as I’d love to investigate Granger’s efficiency, it’s pretty simple regarding his outlook. If he can stay healthy, he should have fantasy value. Personally, I don’t think it’s going to happen. He hasn’t been healthy for the past three seasons and we have written about his knee 226 times in our Player News page. He isn’t going to do much outside of 3-pointers, so he’s not a terrific guy for DFS.

LeBron James - Yep, we’re going there, but not too much. His usage rate has held steady at around 31 on the season, which is right where he was with the Heat last year. The main difference for LeBron is all about being at the rim and what he does there.

Las season, he had one of the most ridiculous at-the-rim years ever. On top of shooting 80 percent at the rim, those shots accounted for 39.9 percent of his shot total. That’s why he was the No. 1 guy for fantasy in FG% with his 56.7 percent at a 24.5 shot-per-game clip.

This year, he is only shooting 67.2 percent at the rim and those shots account for 33.7 percent. Those are great numbers for anyone else and 48.8 percent from the field overall this season isn’t bad, but it’s not the LeBron we’ve become accustom to.

LeBron has been above 74.5 percent at the rim in each of his previous five seasons and his frequency from there was over 37 percent in each of his last two, so last year really wasn’t a fluke.

Basically, everyone needs to calm down. Anyone who has played basketball for a long time knows there are idiosyncrasies that come along with playing next to new guys. Coach David Blatt will find a way to get LeBron to the rim more and the shots should fall from there, too.

This is such a big story only because it’s LeBron. The amount of people covering the Cavs has basically doubled, so everything he does will be magnified. He’ll be fine and everyone should go into chill mode.