Jansen Returns
It's been a week and a day since our last update. Quite a lot has happened. In Miami, A.J. Ramos has begun to cement his role in the ninth inning. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said he would take his time working Kenley Jansen back into the ninth inning. Apparently, “taking his time” meant two appearances. Jansen is back, and he looks like his vintage self.
Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks and Rangers admitted that their original closers were insufficient. Addison Reed and Neftali Feliz have both ceded the ninth inning to a committee. We'll discuss the implications as part of Tier 5.
Shifting our attention to base runners, the league wide stolen base success rate remains steady at 70.4 percent. Players have swiped 672 bags in 954 attempts. Surprise! Billy Hamilton leads the league despite not adding a steal in the last eight days. He's still at 17. He's trailed by Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Altuve with 14 steals apiece. Dee Gordon has stalled out with 12 steals. The surprise name in the top five is Delino DeShields Jr. with 11 swipes. Whereas the others got to the top with over 160 plate appearances, Deshields has only 70 plate appearances.
Editor's Note: Play one-day fantasy baseball for cash! FanDuel is hosting a $50,000 league for Thursday's MLB games. It's just $5 to join and first place wins $5,000. Starts today at 12:10pm ET. Enter now!
Tier 1: Elite (6)
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Andrew Miller, New York Yankees
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
Chapman and Holland received very little work in the last eight days. They combined for three pain free appearances. Robertson pitched three times on his own. He picked up two saves, although he did allow a solo home run last Wednesday. Of the three, Holland is the one who worries me. He's allowed five walks in his last three outings.
The Yankees continue to possess two of the best reliever in baseball. Miller finally coughed up his first runs of the season. A walk and a home run accounted for the damage. His numbers are still extremely good – four hits, nine walks, 31 strikeouts, and two runs in 18.1 innings. The only issue is the presence of Dellin Betances. The righty has also allowed two runs on the season. They're unearned. In 23 innings, he has 35 strikeouts, 10 walks, and eight hits allowed.
Jansen has pitched twice since returning from the disabled list. In his debut, he struck out all four batters he faced. One of those reached base via a passed ball. He earned a hold in the process. Two days later, Jansen was back in the ninth inning. He retired the side with ease. I've seen enough to plop him straight back into the elite tier.
Kimbrel has appeared three times since I moved him down from the second spot last week. He struck out six batters and earned two saves. Unfortunately, both saves also included an earned run. His 5.74 ERA is painful for fantasy owners who paid a steep price to acquire him. However, his 2.21 xFIP hints at better times to come. I consider him an excellent buy low candidate, although my efforts to do just that have been stymied.
Tier 2: The Upside Crowd (5)
Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Kevin Cash has squirmed around the closer question, but it's clear Boxberger remains the top choice. He continues to carve through batters with aplomb. In two outings, he notched two saves and three strikeouts. Jake McGee looks like his old self. The Rays could wind up with a situation similar to that of the Yankees.
Britton had a meltdown appearance in a non-save situation last Saturday. He bounced back on Sunday with a save. As a ground ball pitcher, he'll be subject to the whims of the BABIP gods. When hitters do manage to put some loft on the ball, it tends to leave the park. Even with the increased strikeout rate, these factors will prevent Britton from reaching the upper echelon.
In four appearances, Rondon was credited with a win, two saves, and a blown save. He struck out five in four innings and allowed four hits. Unfortunately, two of the hits were sequenced in such a way that he allowed a run. In any event, his job remains secure.
Rosenthal pitched four times and locked down two saves. Familia appeared thrice and blew his only save attempt. Rosenthal has seemingly corrected the command problems that plagued him last season.
Tier 3: The Mid-Tier (8)
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Jason Grilli, Atlanta Braves
Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins
Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
Joakim Soria Detroit Tigers
Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
Eno and I tend to focus on velocity as a leading indicator of reliever performance. When a pitcher like Papelbon begins to lose his heat, we expect a related decline in results. Instead, Papelbon is in the midst of his best season to date. He has a 1.50 ERA, the best swinging strike rate of his career, and a healthy 11.50 K/9. It's clear that he's learned to maximize his stuff. He nabbed four saves and seven strikeouts in the last eight days. If only the Phillies handed him more save opportunities.
Grilli remains the Braves closer, although a nagging back injury is an ongoing concern. If Grilli falters, Jim Johnson is next in line. While the former O's closer has rebounded from a lost season, I'm not overly excited by his proximity to saves. A major injury to Grilli could spur a search for their next long term stopper.
Perkins pitched five times since our last gathering. The only meaningful damage was a solo home run, although he did allow seven base runners via six hits and a walk. He earned four saves in the process.
I keep mentioning my concern about using Uehara on consecutive days. For now, let's ignore that issue. He pitched last Wednesday and Thursday with no ill effect. The splitter baller earned four saves in four appearances. He did allow a solo shot in his latest outing. As we all recall, the long ball plagued him late last season.
Street and Storen each had strong weeks. They both had three saves in four appearances. Street struck out five batters in four frames while Storen fanned seven in 3.1 innings.
Tier 4: Questions (7)
A.J. Ramos, Bryan Morris, Miami Marlins
Fernando Rodney, Seattle Mariners
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros
Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Tyler Clippard, Oakland Athletics
The story with Ramos comes down to a couple “ifs.” If Ramos holds the ninth and if he can maintain a strong walk rate, he'll be an excellent closer. There is still some uncertainty in Miami, what with their new general/manager. Ramos picked up the Marlins only save in the last week.
Meanwhile, I've downgraded Rodney after he allowed runs in his last three appearances. Rodney is a high stress asset. The Mariners have been patient with his inconsistency, but they have an abundance of internal options. Most assume Danny Farquhar is next in line, but it wouldn't surprise me if a temporary committee revealed another candidate. In any case, I'm pretty sure Rodney will need a really ugly blow up or two before he's even on the hot seat.
Yesterday, Allen allowed two hits, two walks, and a run while locking down the save. He picked up a total of four saves in five appearances. Aside from his most recent outing, he looked like his old self. As I've kept saying, the stuff is still there, it's just the results that have vanished.
Gregerson scuffled through a couple two-run outings in the last week. I'm less concerned about his performance than the presence of Chad Qualls. The Astros' former closer has looked just a bit sharper than Gregerson this season. However, Houston is on the cutting edge of analytics. They understand that it can be a good thing if your best reliever is available prior to the ninth inning – especially if the closer is similarly talented.
Tier 5: Roller Coasters (4)
John Axford, Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Shawn Tolleson, Keone Kela, Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
Enrique Burgos, Brad Ziegler, Addison Reed, Arizona Diamondbacks
Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays
So let's talk about Texas. The Rangers have grown tired of Feliz's 5.09 ERA and inconsistency in the ninth inning. The club has announced a committee. As is usually the case, it's a committee where one guy appears to be favored over the other options. That player is Tolleson. The former Dodger prospect has 11.78 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, and a 3.44 ERA in 18.1 innings. He leans heavily on a 94 mph fastball. His best secondary pitch is his changeup. I worry he'll be overexposed in the ninth inning.
With a 96 mph heater, Kela may have a higher ceiling than Tolleson. The 22-year-old is still raw. The Rangers won't push him into ninth inning duties, but he's performed well as a seventh inning guy. He has 7.71 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, and a 2.41 ERA. His 11.1 percent swinging strike rate hints at the potential for more strikeouts. Kela features a 96 mph fastball that hasn't induced many whiffs. However, he frequently throws a plus-plus curve. He'll also toss the occasional changeup. Look at Kela as a long range option in case the league solves Tolleson.
Just like in Texas, the Diamondbacks have decided to move on from Reed's 5.54 ERA. Last year, it was the long ball that plagued him. This time around, he's simply been too hittable. Reed rushed back from injury in April. I wonder if a stint on the disabled list would help.
In his absence, Burgos has moved into the ninth inning. He already has two saves – the same total Reed recorded in over a month of work. Burgos has big swing-and-miss stuff. He splits his offerings between a 97 mph fastball and a wipeout slider. Command and control can be an issue for him. His current 6.17 BB/9 rate is not dissimilar to his minor league numbers. Burgos vaguely reminds me of Carlos Marmol. It took the league a couple years to solve him.
*****************************
Injured
Jenrry Mejia, New York Mets
Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics
Bobby Parnell, New York Mets
Joe Nathan, Detroit Tigers
Adam Ottavino, Colorado Rockies
Doolittle is three innings into his rehab assignment with mixed results. The scouting reports have been positive. He's still a week or more away from returning. Parnell is also on a rehab assignment. There's no need for Familia owners to worry. Parnell has 6.35 K/9 and 9.53 BB/9 in 5.2 innings. I'm not sure he'll even make it back onto the Mets' roster.
The Deposed
Chad Qualls
Joaquin Benoit
LaTroy Hawkins
Miguel Castro
Steve Cishek
Addison Reed
Neftali Feliz
As we've already discussed in detail, Reed and Feliz are the latest deposed closers. They still have a chance to reclaim their former roles. Both clubs would like for them to develop some marketability prior to the July and August trade deadlines.
*****************************
The Steals Department
As noted in the introduction, Deshields is doing his best Jarrod Dyson impression. He has 11 steals despite just 70 plate appearances. The Rangers have begun to use their Rule 5 pick more frequently at the top of the lineup . The speedster is owned in 24 percent of Yahoo leagues. He flashed some power in the minors, but he's probably a little overmatched in the majors. Still, he's shown surprising contact ability and plate patience with a .386 OBP.
The Nationals recently called up Wilmer Difo from Double-A. Presumably, he'll receive some starts while Jayson Werth recovers from his latest injury. Difo stole 49 bases in 2014. He's off to a slower pace this year with seven swipes in 150 plate appearances. Still, he's a solid hitter with pop and speed. The 23-year-old isn't ready for the fantasy big time, but he's definitely a name to watch. He became hyper aggressive upon a promotion to Double-A. That usually means a hitter knows he's overmatched.
The A's have turned to Billy Burns with increased frequency in recent weeks. Injuries and the poor production of Coco Crisp and Sam Fuld produced the opportunity. A healthy .313/.353/.344 batting line with four stolen bases has allowed him to hang onto a regular role. Burns' ceiling is something like a switch-hitting Ben Revere. He has no power and his contact ability isn't as good as you'd like from a pure speedster (it's not bad either). Burns is always a candidate for multiple steals.
