Forde's Fab Four: Surprise non-Power 5 school moves into playoff picture
Every week, I will play Selection Committee member, take a look at the College Football Playoff picture and offer what I believe the bracket should be if the season ended today. Call it Forde's Fab Four, and feel free to disagree.
ORANGE BOWL: No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Memphis
The Tigers (8-0, 5-0 in the Atlantic Coast Conference) maintain the pole position after beating North Carolina State in a shootout, 56-41, in Raleigh. The Wolfpack are a top-50 team according to the Sagarin Ratings, so a double-digit road victory is enough to keep Clemson where it was last week. This was the Tigers’ fourth straight double-digit victory after close calls against Notre Dame and Louisville. Quarterback Deshaun Watson has hit his stride and been turned loose in the offense the past few weeks: He had a season-high 420 passing yards Oct. 17 against Boston College; a season-high 98 rushing yards Oct. 24 against Miami; and a season-high six total touchdowns Saturday against the Wolfpack. Next: Division-deciding showdown with nemesis Florida State at home Saturday. Seminoles have won the past three meetings.
Memphis (8-0, 4-0 in the American Athletic Conference) is the new kid on the block, and the non-Power 5 invader. Why move the Tigers in and Baylor out? Because, if you look at the résumés of the two, Memphis absolutely has the best win (by 13 points over Mississippi). Baylor played an atrocious non-conference schedule, and the combined record of the Bears’ four Big 12 opponents to date is 11-21. Until Baylor plays Oklahoma on Nov. 14, it will be without a quality win, so it’s time to look at other options. And the more Ole Miss wins, the better Memphis looks as a playoff alternative.
COTTON BOWL: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 3 Ohio State
LSU (7-0, 4-0 in the Southeastern Conference) holds its spot through a bye week. Nobody else did anything to unseat the Tigers, and their signature victory to date – over Florida – was strengthened by the Gators’ domination of Georgia and likely stranglehold on the SEC East Division title. LSU has diversified its offense in its past couple of games, getting a previously dormant passing attack untracked in support of monster stud running back Leonard Fournette. But there are some defensive concerns: LSU has surrendered 20 or more points six straight games, which hasn’t happened since 1991. Next: SEC armageddon, LSU at Alabama on Saturday night. The Crimson Tide has beaten the Tigers four straight times since that No. 1-vs.-No. 2 showdown in Tuscaloosa in 2011.
Ohio State (8-0, 4-0 in the Big Ten) remained in the bracket through a bye week that was not altogether peaceful and quiet. Quarterback J.T. Barrett, all of one week into his return to the starting role, was cited for operating a motor vehicle while impaired Friday night. Barrett subsequently was suspended for the upcoming game against Minnesota, which puts Cardale Jones back into the starting role against the Gophers. At the very least, Ohio State has a proven quality backup to turn to. But Barrett makes the Buckeyes go best, and if his previously rock-solid leadership role is now in question you wonder what the impact could be heading into the season-ending Michigan State-Michigan gauntlet. Next: Minnesota on Saturday. The Gophers played Ohio State tough last year in Minneapolis, but you wonder how much was taken out of them in their last-second meltdown against Michigan on Saturday night.
Dropped out: Baylor.
Also considered: Baylor, TCU, Notre Dame, Stanford, Alabama, Michigan State, Iowa, Oklahoma State, Houston.
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