Storylines: Hanging with Mr. Johnson
And then there were five.
Heading into Race No. 5 of the 10-race Chase, just five of the 12 drivers who qualified for this year's playoff maintain a realistic shot at winning the whole thing, and that's if you believe Jimmie Johnson can be caught.
The three-time defending champ carries a 12 – point lead into Saturday night's NASCAR Banking 500, and though its miniscule, this is the sweet spot of the schedule for Johnson.
Lowe's Motor Speedway, site of this weekend's race, is Johnson's second favorite track. His favorite is Martinsville Speedway, where the circuit heads to next weekend.
What this means is it's damage-control time for the four drivers (Mark Martin, Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon) chasing Johnson. Get past the next two weekends without losing too much ground to the points leader and they still have a shot.
"You don't want these guys to get on a roll," said Gordon, who is 105 points behind Johnson. "We've seen what they have done in the past. I think that it shows that they are as strong as they have ever been, and it is going to take a lot to beat them."
So far, the average finish of the three drivers atop the standings is astounding. Johnson, Martin and Montoya are averaging finishes of 3.75, 3.5 and 3.5, respectively. (Johnson holds the edge over Martin thanks to a 30-15 advantage in bonus points for leading laps.)
Gordon said he has no shot at the title if this continues. And though Stewart doesn't expect all three to keep up the torrid pace, he doesn't expect all three to falter.
"I would about guarantee one of the three will [keep up the pace]," said Stewart, who sits in fourth, 84 points back. "It’s hard to think that after four races when you’ve already got three of those guys that have made it that far, somebody of those three won’t go ahead and finish it that way.
"That’s what makes this Chase cool. To have a Chase that’s that tight and that competitive – nobody is going to back in to this championship. If you win it, you’ve got something to be proud of this year."
Here's are five storylines to watch for in Saturday night's NASCAR Banking 500 at Lowe's Motor Speedway:
1. Will Jimmie Johnson's downfall be on pit road?
If Johnson and company have a chink in their armor, it's pit stops. An injury to Johnson's rear-tire changer has left the team scrambling to find a replacement.
They're now on their third different replacement, the latest coming last weekend in California where Johnson lost spots on pit road several times.
"It's tough this late in the season to bring in a younger person and somebody new to a team and [say], 'Okay, here you go. We're going for a fourth championship and by the way, we're midway into the Chase and we need to win today and have a good race, ' " Johnson said. "So it's a tough thing."
2. Will double-file restarts ruin someone's night?
The final restart in last weekend's race at Auto Club Speedway produced an eight-car pileup that ended Kasey Kahne's fleeting title hopes. Lost in Kahne's post-race interview, in which he complained about NASCAR throwing an unnecessary caution, was the fact that the intensity on the track was reaching a point where it was almost inevitable that something bad would happen.
Most of the Chase contenders were at or near the front on that final restart, meaning every spot they gained or lost resulted in a points swing. No one wanted to give up any ground, and the result was a collection of crumpled automobiles.
And that was on a wide, forgiving track, something that Lowe's Motor Speedway isn't.
"Charlotte is going to be intense, just like we've seen on the double-file restarts there for the All Star event," Gordon said after last week's race in California. "It gets pretty crazy."
3. Will Juan Pablo Montoya keep pace?
Of the 101 Cup races run at Lowe's Motor Speedway, 76 have been won by drivers starting in the top 10. Johnson starts first, Martin second, while Montoya will start 18th Saturday night.
What's more, Montoya has just one top 10 in five starts at LMS.
Past results haven't meant much for Montoya thus far in the Chase, but in each of the previous four races he was among the quickest in practice. In Friday's final practice session, Montoya could do no better than 25th.
4. How fragile is Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s psyche?
Just when it looked like Earnhardt's season couldn't get any worse, it did.
Junior qualified 39th for Saturday night's race, a humiliating effort for a driver who is supposed to be in the best equipment money can buy. Friday, Earnhardt let it all hang out, saying he has "had enough."
"There comes a point where you don't want to ride it out no more," Earnhardt said. "You've just had enough."
In recent weeks, there have been signs of improvement. Earnhardt has run near the front and actually led a few laps two weeks ago at Kansas. But he hasn't been able to close the deal.
He was running in the top 10 at New Hampshire when he tangled with David Reutimann. Afterward, Earnhardt lashed out at Reutimann, saying, "He ain't got enough talent to run in the top five, I guess."
Two weeks later at Kansas, Earnhardt had his solid run ruined by a pit-road penalty and a blown engine.
Now, it seems, the frustration has boiled over.
5. Where have you gone, Kyle Busch?
When last the Sprint Cup Series visited Lowe's Motor Speedway, Kyle Busch led 173 of the 227 laps in the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600. In other words, Busch dominated a race that he lost because of weather.
It was maybe Busch's best performance of the season, one he hasn't come close to matching since.
After a weekend in California in which he had to get out of his car in both the Nationwide and Cup races because of illness, Busch is ready to go the distance this weekend. He'll start 10th Saturday, looking to become the first non-Chase driver to get to victory lane.
"Winning at Lowe's Motor Speedway, since it is my favorite track, would be really special since I've been able to win there in other series and have been close a lot in the Cup car," Busch said.
His best finish in a Cup race at Lowe's is third.
