Storylines: Who will lose ground?

FONTANA, Calif. – If the race back in February at Auto Club Speedway is an indicator, then the Chase standings won't experience much of a shakeup following Sunday's Pepsi 500.

Ten of the 12 Chase qualifiers finished in the top 12 in February's Auto Club 500. What this intimates is that no one is going to gain major points, but you can lose big ground if you have a malfunction.

For example, Mark Martin suffered an engine failure at Auto Club Speedway in February and wound up finishing 40th. A similar fate this weekend will result in losing up to 150 points in the Chase standings.

Here are five other storylines to watch for in Sunday's Pepsi 500:

1. Is it time for Juan Pablo Montoya to finally win on an oval?

Throw past statistics out the window. Montoya has shown the last three weeks that he's a different driver now that the Chase has begun.

So it shouldn't have come as a surprise on Friday when Montoya, who's never finished better than 11th in a race at Auto Club Speedway, clocked a lap in practice that was more than a mile an hour faster than anyone else.

Though the Colombian-born driver has yet to win a race this season and still hasn't won on an oval, three straight top-five finishes indicate he's getting closer to accomplishing both.

When asked what he thinks has changed in Montoya since the Chase began, Tony Stewart said, "No clue, but he’s been good. … I don’t know what it’s due to. I mean, they’ve found something obviously that timing wise was perfect for them but they hit on something that’s working for them right now and most likely it will work all the way through the Chase.”

2. Does Carl Edwards still have a shot?

He thinks so, and there is some history to say he's not out of contention, yet. Back in 2006, Jimmie Johnson went into the fourth race in the Chase trailing the points leader by 165 points, which is exactly where Edwards sits right now.

"Jimmie was the exact number behind the leader that we are, and somehow he managed to pull it off," Edwards said. "We're the same team that won more races and scored more points than anyone else last season, so I still hang on to the fact that we can do it. We just have to execute it."

Edwards, who is off crutches for the first time in a month after suffering a broken foot, will start 11th.

3. Will someone not driving a Hendrick car win?

Three Chase races, three wins for Hendrick Motorsports' cars. Mark Martin, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart have made trips to Victory Lane a family affair so far. Will it continue?

Denny Hamlin did win the pole, Montoya was fast in practice and Johnson is the only Hendrick driver to qualify in the top five. So there are signs that someone else could break through.

That said, Johnson is the two-time defending race winner at Auto Club Speedway, while Jeff Gordon finished second there in February.

"Last week, this week and probably Martinsville are the three tracks I look forward to trying not to lose as many points as I can against Jimmie," Montoya said. "The way I see it is if you can go through those three races without getting yourself out of reach of Jimmie you’ll be fine.”

4. Will the race be won on pit road?

A decision to take four tires on the final pit stop at Kansas might have cost Johnson the win. The decision to take two tires on the same stop did win the race for Stewart.

Because on-track passing has become so difficult, Sprint Cup racing has become more and more about gaining "track position" using pit-road strategy.

“It’s more difficult [to pass] now than it was 11 years ago when I started," Stewart explained. "It used to be that if you could make it 50 laps on fuel and you had to run a full fuel run you could not run 100 percent and be fast for 50 laps. You would be fast for 25 laps, then you would fall off the face of the Earth. The way the tires are now you can run 100 percent for 50 laps and you’re going to be in pretty good shape. With that, it’s made track position a little more important."

5. Will Auto Club Speedway have two races in 2011?

NASCAR will set its 2011 schedule before the circuit winds back around to Auto Club Speedway for a second time in 2010. So that means Sunday's race will be a measuring stick for whether the track warrants two Cup dates going forward.

If, as expected, International Speedway Corp. wants to give a second date to Kansas Speedway in 2011, then a race will have to come from somewhere, most likely Auto Club Speedway or Martinsville.

Sunday's race will not be sold out, but will drawing around 70,000 be enough to convince ISC to keep two dates in suburban Los Angeles?