Mark Teixeira - Casey Kotchman trade analysis

Mark Teixeira, left, and Casey Kotchman.

(AP Photos)

While Casey Kotchman is considered the better defensive player and has a slightly better batting average than Mark Teixeira, the Los Angeles Angels traded for Teixeira because he has superior power…
Teixeira: 20 HR, 78 RBI
Kotchman: 12 HR, 54 RBI

…and a higher on base percentage.
Teixeira: .373
Kotchman: .327

Playoff chances not significantly impacted

This trade does not significantly impact either the Angels or Braves post-season chances. The Angels led AccuScore forecasts with a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 5 game lead in total wins before the trade. With Teixeira their chances increase by 1 percentage point and an average of 0.5 more wins per simulation.

Meanwhile, the Braves were given virtually no chance of making a run in the NL East given their injuries and poor play on the road. With Teixeira they made the playoffs in just 1.5 percent of simulations and were forecasted for last place in the division. After the trade their chances decline just to 1.4 percent and another last place finish.

AccuScore ran a series of simulations between the Angels and other top teams in then AL (Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, White Sox, Twins). These games included a variety of home and away match-ups with each team’s Top 3 starters facing each other.

The Angels were slightly better with Mark Teixeira winning 1.5 percent more of their simulations against top AL competitors.

Accuscore favors the Angels to win the World Series

The Angels are the favorite to win the World Series for two reasons: 1) The team is extremely talented; 2) They should have home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a forecasted 5 game lead in the American League and the AL’s All-Star Game victory.

AccuScore calculated the Angels’ chances of defeating Boston, New York, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Chicago with home field advantage. Because precise match-ups are not known we generated a random series of playoffs with different division winners and wildcards using these teams. In each simulation, the Angels had home field advantage.

The Angels made it to the World Series in 39 percent of simulations.

We then ran simulations of the Angels vs likely NL Champs…
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers,
New York Mets
and Arizona Diamondbacks.
With home field advantage the Angels won over 60 percent of World Series simulations over all NL teams.

Overall, the Angels have a 24 percent chance of winning the World Series which is over 8 percentage points higher than any other team.