Pondering Arsenal's improbable dream: Winning Premier League and FA Cup
After 30 rounds, Arsenal has collected 60 points to slot into third place in the Premier League, but can the Gunners truly challenge Chelsea in the league and claim the Premier League and FA Cup double?
[FC Yahoo: The strange and surprising trend with club managers]
Before getting muddy with Premier League analysis on whether Arsenal can finish strong enough to offer a true title challenge to frontrunner Chelsea, let's get the easy bit out of the way: the FA Cup. Arsenal's path to a second successive FA Cup is paved neatly and glistening with bright lamp posts to ensure Arsenal does not fall off the track.
[Men in Blazers: Predictions for Arsenal vs. Liverpool]
Reading and Wembley await the Gunners in a FA Cup semifinal that should see the Gunners advance despite the "magic of the cup." Aston Villa, Liverpool and Blackburn Rovers will battle it out to determine the other finalist, but the Gunners would probably enter the final as favorites. Of course, no match at Wembley can be taken for granted, but everything considered, Arsenal has a prime opportunity to claim England's most highly coveted cup trophy for a second successive season.
[Premier League: Scores and Schedule | Current Standings | Teams]
With the Champions League no longer a traveling hindrance or a mental distraction, the Premier League provides Arsenal the primary challenge of finishing in the top four. Based on form and the fact that the Gunners hold a six-point edge over fifth place, finishing top-four is more likely than not at this stage in the season.
Speaking of form, no team has collected more points than the Gunners over the past 15 rounds. The North London club secured 37 points at a rate of 2.47 points per fixture over the past 15 fixtures. To put that in traditional terms, the Gunners have won 12 games, drawn once and only lost twice since early December.
During this prolonged stretch of positive play, Arsene Wenger's men have earned results in difficult fixtures away from the comforts of the Emirates. With a draw at Anfield and a win at the Etihad, Arsenal appears to have remedied the failure to compete with the top of the league in head-to-head encounters. Also worth mentioning, the Londoners beat Manchester United at Old Trafford in the FA Cup.
Chelsea, however, holds a stern seven-point lead over Arsenal along with a game in hand. With only eight league matches remaining for the Gunners, catching Chelsea would require near perfect play.
That said, Chelsea has been a team on the decline recently. Due to a lack of squad rotation and an overreliance on the same players, the Blues have collected an average of 2.10 points per match over their past 10 league games. Should Chelsea continue at the same trajectory for the remainder of the season, the Blues would finish on 86 points.
Even if Arsenal keeps up its blistering pace of the past 15 rounds, the Gunners would finish the Premier League on 80 points and fall well short of the Blues.
But these calculations leave out one major component: head to head. Arsenal hosts Chelsea at the Emirates on April 26, and despite Wenger's horrific record against Jose Mourinho, one victory could not only erase the past but also set up a brilliant finish.
Before entirely trashing the idea of a furious late Arsenal rally, let's look back at the Gunners' recent finishes. Last season, the Gunners finished with six wins on the bounce, including a victory in the FA Cup final. Two years ago, Wenger's boys went unbeaten in their final 10 games with a record of eight wins and two draws. Considering Arsenal's current squad is deeper and considered vastly superior to the two previous teams, watching the Gunners explode into a title challenge would not be all that shocking. Coming out victorious, however, would raise more than a few eyebrows.
A year ago, Chelsea's final nine matches yielded only 16 points, as the Blues unexpectedly drew against Norwich and lost to Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Sunderland. A repeat of those same results would put the Blues on 83 points at season's end. In order to hit that 83-point target, the Gunners would need to finish with seven wins in their final eight games.
While catching Chelsea may not be impossible, it is still highly improbable. The margin for error is slimmer than Wenger's waistline.
Still, the Gunners shoot into the weekend's massive fixture against Liverpool on a six-match Premier League winning streak. As long as their streak continues, the Gunners have a chance to do the improbable – claim a Premier League and FA Cup double.
Shahan Ahmed is a soccer columnist for Yahoo Sports. He has previously written about the 2014 World Cup and 2013 Confederations Cup and regularly provides opinions on the English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A and Spanish La Liga. Follow Shahan on Twitter: @ShahanLA and @perfectpass
