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    Puck Daddy

    Eighth place in the Western Conference is up for grabs; Who takes it?

    Kyle Quincy and Cal Clutterbuck team up to form Da Vinci's "Vitruvian Man' (Getty Images)

    With the All-Star break now behind us, it's time to look ahead to the next two major dates of the year: February 27 and April 7 -- the trade deadline and the last day of the regular season, respectively. (Also, I think my wedding anniversary is in there somewhere.)

    The two dates are connected, as every GM now has until the first date to project, to the best of their knowledge, where their team will be on the second. Outside of the playoff picture? Then it's time to start preparing for next year. Inside? Time to patch holes where possible and steel up, Shaq-style.

    So who's where in the Western Conference?

    Barring some kind of zany miracle or Rookie of the Year-style turnaround, three teams (the Edmonton Oilers, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Anaheim Ducks) can all safely begin planning for next year. On the flipside, six teams (the Detroit Red Wings, Chicago Blackhawks, Vancouver Canucks, San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues, and Nashville Predators) are all nine or more points clear of 8th place, and can probably begin screening their logos onto cheap towels.

    That leaves two spots up for grabs, and if you think, as I do, that the 7th place Los Angeles Kings are trending up rather than down, despite being only four points ahead on 8th, you could argue there's only one spot available.

    And that last spot could go to anybody at this point.

    From 8th to 12th place, there are five teams (the Calgary Flames, Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, Phoenix Coyotes, and Minnesota Wild) within three points of each other, and none have looked particularly strong of late. Only Calgary has 5 wins in their last 10 games. Dallas and Colorado have 4, Phoenix and Minnesota only have 3.

    But one of these teams is going to get hot, or at least hotter than the others. Which team is the Alec in this pack of Baldwins?

    I'm putting my money on the Colorado Avalanche.

    They have the 7th-ranked powerplay, they win a lot of faceoffs, Matt Duchene is returning from injury, and they're a youthful team that could catch fire down the stretch.

    Of the five bubble teams, they're not just the only team in the top 10 both in shots for and shots against, but the only of the group that averages more shots per game than they allow. In short, they're the only of the Western Conference bubble teams that has shown the ability to control the play on a semi-regular basis.

    Goaltending has been their struggle thus far. Offseason acquisition Semyon Varlamov has been downright poor of late, recently having surrendered 10 goals in his last 2 starts. He's carrying a 3.00 GAA and an .899 save percentage and has lost the starting job to J.S. Giguere.

    But I'm of the mind that they can get this sorted out. They're my pick for the Western Conference's final playoff spot.

     

    22 comments

    • Colin Curry  •  Fredericton, Canada  •  3 months ago
      At a minimum the Ducks need to win 25 of their remaining 34 games to make the playoffs, or a .735 winning percentage. To put that in perspective, Detroit leads the conference and has a .670 winning percentage so far.

      Ducks fans can keep dreaming, but this isn't going to happen.

      As a Calgary fan, I think Dallas just takes 8th because they are reasonably solid on all fronts. Calgary and Minnesota don't have the guns and Colorado doesn't have solid goaltending. Phoenix will suffer the agony of missing out on the last day.
      • trenchuk t 3 months ago
        You may be wrong. Ducks have a tendency to get hot in the end.
      • beerbellystinker 3 months ago
        The Ducks suck almost as bad as their name.
    • Lunar Storm  •  Salt Lake City, Utah  •  3 months ago
      As an Avalanche fan, I hate to say it, but our power play is not nearly as good as the ranking. I've seen nearly every game this season and I honesty believe that our power play stinks. I definitely believe that we have the talent and hustle to make the playoffs this season, despite our terrible coach. It'll be nice to have Duchene back in the lineup. Mark my words, if this group of young talent stays together and we get a new coach, I see the Avs as a Stanley Cup contender for years to come.
      • John 3 months ago
        First powerplay unit is pretty good, controls the play and gets a few shots. The second unit sucks, and rarely gets the puck into the zone, let alone on net.
      • beerbellystinker 3 months ago
        keep dreaming lunar
    • Chris L  •  3 months ago
      You need to learn how to read the standings correctly. Sharks are only 5 points ahead of the wild. They are sitting up at the 3rd spot because they lead the division, by a meager 2 points.

      With that said, I still think the Sharks will make the playoffs, but as of now, they are one bad 5 game streak from being on the outside looking in.

      Also, I think the Avs will miss the playoffs, they lack depth at every position. I think both Dallas and Phoenix will end up ahead of them. While Dallas certainly does not have depth at D, they have much better depth in goal and up front. The Coyotes are fairly average up front and in net, but by far have better defense than rhe Stars, Wild, and Avs.
      • That Guy 3 months ago
        a) the Sharks have games in hand on everybody, include 2 games in hand on the Wild and 3 on the Kings.

        b) It doesn't matter how far (or little) they end up ahead of the 8th seeded team, all that matters is winning the division because that gets them a top 3 seed automatically.
    • Brent Bollmeier  •  Sparta, Missouri  •  3 months ago
      On the flipside, six teams (the Detroit Red Wings, Chicago Blackhawks, Vancouver Canucks, San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues, and Nashville Predators) are all nine or more points clear of 8th place, and can probably begin screening their logos onto cheap towels.

      I swear Mooney.... if you jinx this for the Blues........... -(
    • Billy Bob  •  San Antonio, Texas  •  3 months ago
      The Stars have a five game losing streak in their last 10 games when they were missing Benn and Ribeiro, their top 2 centers. Both of them are back now, so it's reasonable to expect them to be better now. Also, the Stars have games in hand on everyone else in the 8-12 range.
      • bitter wings fan 3 months ago
        Yeah, I think the Stars have the ability to potentially sneak in.
    • TiCKed  •  3 months ago
      Can we just pretend for awhile that the Ducks can do it? It would do wonders for my overall mental well being.....
      (Yeah, and I believe in the tooth fairy. What of it?!)
      • Diehardnuck 3 months ago
        Just go 28 of 34 down the stretch and they're probably in.
      • BlondeBettie 3 months ago
        I will pretend with you, I have a glimmer of hope that the Ducks will do it!
      • beerbellystinker 3 months ago
        Ducks won't do it cause they are not that good. Plus they hae a lame name.
    • elirancool  •  3 months ago
      "you could argue only there's one spot available."
      Sounds like a french canadian talking
    • Rusty Shackleford  •  Denver, Colorado  •  3 months ago
      Avalanche are really going to have to hope that Giguere keeps up his excellent goaltending, or they WILL fall out of the playoffs.

      There's a good analysis at Flamesnation that looks specifically at Calgary's chance for making the playoffs... http://flamesnation.ca/2012/1/30/calgarys-playoff-probability
    • Joe W  •  3 months ago
      It will come down to injuries. Parity in the NHL is so close that all it takes is one or two injuries to start a losing streak and teams will fall off. Look at Dallas' recent slide and the Ducks in November. Staying healthy and having a hot streak like Nashville and Anaheim are on will make all of the difference. It will be exciting to say the least.
    • Tilly  •  Newark, New Jersey  •  3 months ago
      I think the Avs are set at Goalie who has the top prospect in hockey in goal right now THE AVS they will keep Seymon trade js for some more depth at one of the wing spots and you have playoffs written all over the AVS!!!!!!
    • Thomas P  •  Ferndale, Washington  •  3 months ago
      The flip side of this is that no 1 in the West has never been more valuable. Teams in the 2, 3, and 4 slots are going to have first round matchups with teams that are basically their equals. The series will be toss ups. But on paper at least, the 8th place team is going to be significantly weaker than the team that finishes first.
    • BrewCity61  •  Milwaukee, Wisconsin  •  3 months ago
      J.G. is merely playing at an unsustainable level; if he had all that much left to begin with, then they wouldn't have overpaid for what is rapidly becoming a third-string tender. As much as I can't stand Dallas, I have to give it to them.
    • John  •  3 months ago
      If the avs can stay as good as they have been defensively lately, they have a good chance. They dont have as much forward depth as most of the other teams fighting for the playoffs, but the defense is a solid group now. I dont even think Varly is a factor anymore with his inconsistency, but Giguere has seemed to stabilize the goaltender position. Just need some extra scoring touch, hopefully Duchene is back soon
    • Mustache of Kes  •  3 months ago
      I would say the Flames, but apparently Jay Feaster disagrees with me (based upon their liquidation of Brendan Morrison yesterday).
    • Augie  •  Los Angeles, California  •  3 months ago
      As long as Selanne is still a Duck they still got a chance…
    • jd  •  Los Angeles, California  •  3 months ago
      The Ducks have gone like 8-2 in their last 10 and went from being 1 point away from the Blue Jackets to catching up into that 8-12th place cluster. Ducks are not out of it by any stretch of the imagination
    • jeff t  •  Calgary, Canada  •  3 months ago
      Calgary has the best schedule and a hot goaltender right now. But they have folded in crunch time the last couple of years. If they can start putting the puck in the net I think they will get the last spot.
    • Michael  •  Troy, Michigan  •  3 months ago
      to bad any of these teams in the hunt would lose to the wings hahahahah
    • Go Avs!  •  3 months ago
      I agree 100%, the Avs are CLEARLY the best team of those fighting for 8th spot.
    • Sean  •  3 months ago
      The Avs are deceiving - take it from a fan. Sure, they take tons of shots, but how many are terrible, terrible shots (usually in terms of angles)? I know, get the puck on net, but this seems to be an anomalous stat for the Avs. As for the power play, I wouldn't say it stinks like Lunar Storm, but it certainly isn't one of the tops in the league. They will secure the 8th spot if, and only if, one of their apathetic forwards can turn it up, see: David Jones. Duchene will have to return with a bang (but I'm not worried about that). Mueller will have to stay healthy (who knows anymore with concussions). And Varly will have to give Ol' Man Giggy some time in the hot bath between games. I predicted 9th at the start of the season, and I'll stick with 9th. But that's only what my logic tells me. Hockey ain't a game of logic

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