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MLB DFS: Thursday Picks for Opening Day

mike barner
·5 min read

It took a lot to get us here, but the MLB season finally gets underway Thursday. Despite the late start because of the lockout, the league intends for each team to play a full 162-game season. Unfortunately, the weather is not cooperating for Opening Day. The Yankees and Red Sox game, as well as the Mariners and Twins game, have already been postponed. Other games could also be played in less-than-ideal conditions. With that in mind, let's discuss some pitchers and hitters to target for your entries.

Pitchers

The defending champion Braves start out their quest to repeat with a series at home against the Reds. While the Braves retooled to try and make another run, the Reds essentially threw in the towel, moving on from a few of their key players. Their lineup is especially weak after letting Nick Castellanos leave and trading away Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez. That could help Max Fried ($43), who was stellar last season with a 3.04 ERA that was supported by a 3.31 FIP, get off to a hot start.

Another team that figures to have a bad lineup is the Pirates. They have a couple of exciting young hitters in Bryan Reynolds and Ke'Bryan Hayes, but that's about it at this point. They could have bolstered their lineup by letting Oneil Cruz break camp with the team, but they decided to send him down to the minors. Their weak lineup is one to attack in DFS, so in this case, the veteran Adam Wainwright ($38) is appealing. He dominated them last season, posting a 0.30 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP against them across four starts.

Starting pitcher Adam Wainwright #50 of the St. Louis Cardinals is an intriguing MLB DFS play
Consider Adam Wainwright in your MLB DFS lineups today. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

If you want to take a chance on a pitcher with a cheap salary, Zack Greinke ($25) should be on your radar. He's made his return to Kansas City, where he spent the first six seasons of his career. He's a shell of the pitcher that he was back then, but he has still recorded a WHIP of 1.17 or lower in each of the last five seasons. He won't exactly be facing a tough lineup in the Guardians, who didn't make any significant additions after finishing with the 10th-worst OPS in baseball last year.

Top Targets

The weather isn't looking great for the afternoon matchup between the Mets and Nationals. However, conditions might be better as the day wears on, so this game could only be delayed. Also, it's the first game of a four-game series, so it's not like they have an off day Friday in which they can push this game to. Expect them to try and play, giving the Nationals an opportunity to face Tylor Megill ($25) with Jacob deGrom (shoulder) and Max Scherzer (hamstring) injured. Not only did Megill have a 4.69 FIP last season, but he also allowed 1.9 HR/9. That could lead to plenty of damage being done by Juan Soto ($25), who finished last season with a 163 wRC+.

If you decided not to roll with Greinke as one of your pitchers, then adding Jose Ramirez ($21) as one of your hitters is very appealing. He just signed a monster contract extension Wednesday that will keep him in Cleveland for years to come. He has a unique combination of speed and power, finishing last season with 36 home runs and 27 stolen bases.

Bargain Bats

Capitalizing on the Mets being without their top starters could turn out to be a viable strategy for this slate. In addition to Soto, Keibert Ruiz ($13) and Cesar Hernandez ($12) could also be worth considering. Hernandez should bat leadoff, which is a favorable spot ahead of Soto and Nelson Cruz. Ruiz, who is one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball, should slot in fifth, with the potential for plenty of runners to be on base ahead of him.

Stacks to Consider

Mets vs. Patrick Corbin ($25), Nationals: Pete Alonso ($23), Starling Marte ($22), Mark Canha ($19)

Corbin was awful last year, posting a 5.82 ERA and a 5.41 FIP. He allowed 1.9 HR/9 to go along with a 1.47 WHIP, which is a recipe for disaster. Alonso could capitalize on Corbin's propensity for giving up home runs. Canha has recorded a .233 ISO and a .355 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the last four seasons, making him another intriguing option for a Mets stack.

Cardinals vs JT Brubaker ($25), Pirates: Paul Goldschmidt ($24), Nolan Arenado ($20), Tyler O'Neill ($21)

The fact that Brubaker is starting on Opening Day sums up the state of the Pirates' rotation. Last season, he had a 5.36 ERA and a 5.16 FIP across 24 starts. He had problems keeping hitters inside the ballpark, allowing 2.0 HR/9. That could be a major problem against this powerful trio. O'Neill had a breakout 2021 campaign in that department, slugging 34 home runs to go along with his .384 wOBA.

Padres vs. Madison Bumgarner ($26), Diamondbacks: Manny Machado ($19), Luke Voit ($14), Wil Myers ($14)

Bumgarner was a disaster in the shortened 2020 season, so his 4.67 ERA and 4.63 FIP last season were actually an improvement. However, that still makes him someone to consider attacking in DFS. He's never been one to strike out an overwhelming number of hitters, but he's really declined in that department as he's aged, including his 20.2 percent strikeout rate last season. The Padres have a compromised lineup without Fernando Tatis Jr. (wrist), but this right-handed trio could still exploit this favorable matchup.