Worried about the Chiefs covering the spread? Here are 2 bets to play it safe

If you are a true die-hard Chiefs fan, I hope you are profiting off the incredible value that this Kansas City team generates in these historic comebacks. The in-game moneyline odds for a Kansas City victory varied from +3300 to +5000 when there appeared to be only 13 seconds left in their season Sunday night. We have seen the magic of Mahomes wipe out a 24-point deficit against the Texans in the 2020 playoffs, so it was not a surprise that the Bills suffered the same fate. Per ESPN Stats and Info, Kansas City's win probability has dipped below 5% in the playoffs four times since 2018. They are 3-1 in those games while the rest of the league is 1-38. Patrick Mahomes continuously defies the greatest of odds to escape elimination and now heads to his fourth consecutive AFC championship game.

The Bengals' turnaround from a 2-14 team to playing for a chance to make the Super Bowl is an incredible story. However, Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday is the final chapter. How can you bet against this Chiefs team after they continue to come back the second you count them out? Seven weeks into the season they were 3-4 and saw their Super Bowl odds balloon up to +1300. They responded by winning eight straight games and securing the No. 2 seed in the AFC. It's not a matter of whether Kansas City will reach the Super Bowl for the third consecutive year. The real question for bettors this week is "Can the Chiefs cover the spread?"

I like the Chiefs to not only win but win with margin on Sunday. They are currently -7.5 point favorites against Cincinnati at BetMGM. I can understand why bettors would be apprehensive laying more than the key number of 7 against a Bengals offense that can keep pace with any team in the NFL. You have the option of betting -6.5 at -135 if the key number is your only concern. Everybody who has bet on football has multiple stories they can rehash about getting backdoored in the final seconds. I put together two bets that can serve as "Backdoor Burrow" protection in this weekend's AFC championship game.

Kansas City Chiefs team total: Over 32.5 (+105)

The Chiefs have averaged 34.3 points per game and led the NFL in EPA per play over the last 10 games. Patrick Mahomes just destroyed the Bills' No.1 ranked defense for five touchdowns and over 500 yards of offense. They have scored no less than 42 points in each playoff game. The Bengals defense ranks 27th in yards per game allowed to tight ends and will undoubtedly have their hands full with this offense.

Without an answer for Travis Kelce, defenses have no shot at shutting down the Chiefs. Andy Reid is fully aware that 31 points were not enough in their previous meeting, as Joe Burrow mounted a fourth-quarter comeback to steal the win. That gives the Chiefs all the incentive to keep the foot on the gas for all four quarters helping us hit our team total. Once K.C. hits 33 points, we can cash our bets without sweating whether they leave the backdoor open again.

Moneyline and total points: Chiefs and Over 48.5 (-110)

Here is another betting option where Kansas City's margin of victory does not prevent us from winning the wager. Parlaying the Chiefs moneyline with a reduced point total eliminates the risk of the Bengals closing the gap with a few meaningless touchdowns late in the game. Kansas City is 7-0 to the over since Week 14 and we are getting a number on the total that is six points below market price. It's a game that I expect to fly over the total of 54.5, but if you are betting an alternate total make sure it's under the key number of 51. There has only been one instance in the Chiefs' last seven games where the combined score failed to reach 49. Considering how they are lighting up the scoreboard in the playoffs, there is a good chance this game gets there too.

(Stats provided by teamrankings.com and football outsiders)