WNBA 2024 season predictions: Can anyone stop a Las Vegas Aces three-peat?
Caitlin Clark is …
A phenomenon, who must be given the grace to adjust. The Indiana Fever will have to acclimate to utilising the space Clark creates, rather than relying solely on her to orchestrate plays. Players such as NaLyssa Smith, Temi Fagbenle and Aliyah Boston will play pivotal roles in transitioning the ball for Clark, and can boost their own individual statistics as opponents focus on containing Clark’s offensive threat. YE-S
Under a glare like no player before her. The all-time scoring leader in major college basketball history is the bandleader of a sensational rookie class that has recalibrated all expectations for how women’s sports can be covered, commercialized and consumed. It also ensures a precipitous learning curve in a cutthroat league where veterans have been famously unsparing on newcomers. Clark will be facing the best efforts on a nightly basis from opponents looking to draft off her unprecedented reach. BAG
Related: Caitlin Clark will earn 2% of the median NBA salary. Is that as ridiculous as it sounds?
A rising tide that lifts all boats, but she’s also in for an adjustment. I don’t only mean the regular transitions rookies go through stepping into competition against seasoned pros, and the rhythms of a W season, but the stardom that’s going to shape her world. She had a glimpse of it at Iowa, but college was a bubble for her. This stage is going to be so much different and I hope the Fever have a good buffer plan in place. KH
Making herself right at home, putting up threes with much the same abandon she did at Iowa. It’ll be interesting to see if she’ll be able to pick her spots at will once the games count and the competition stiffens. But I expect her to raise the standard in Indiana in much the same way as New York’s Sabrina Ionescu did in her 2020 debut. AL
What I’m most looking forward to …
The emergence of captivating rivalries. Because the league is still relatively young, the absence of rivalries has been conspicuous. Historical matchups like Comets-Liberty and Sparks-Monarchs are long gone given the number of teams that have folded and there has been a void in the W. With more parity and one of the league’s most talented rookie classes, the hope is that this is the start of enduring competition in the WNBA. YE-S
All of the content. This year’s rookie class, including Clark, Angel Reese, Cameron Brink, Aaliyah Edwards and Kamilla Cardoso, did more to attract mainstream attention to the women’s game than anyone before them during an NCAA Tournament where TV viewership records seemed to topple by the day. It also inspired countless gifs, videos and memes on TikTok and X feverishly traded through group chats as the games unfolded in real time, marking women’s basketball’s arrival in a way that Nielsen figures can’t account for. If second-screeners can eat half as good from Tuesday night, the W will be right where it needs to be. BAG
More parity. It’s still looking like the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty versus everyone else, but the Seattle Storm and Phoenix Mercury made some big offseason moves, the Connecticut Sun and Dallas Wings are looking to compete, and the Chicago Sky are going to be fun to watch with Reese and Cardoso (once she’s back from a shoulder injury) yanking down second- and third-chance points. KH
Checking in on the Atlanta Dream, who doubled up on Australian prospects in this year’s draft with guards Nyadiew Puoch and Isobel Borlase – headliners of the largest cohort of Aussie draftees in more than a decade. Puoch in particular is an intriguing ball handler and shooter who brings extra gears to a surprise playoff contender that adds a former league MVP in center Tina Charles. AL
Biggest offseason development …
The interest in the season from the get-go. The W tends to have the most eyes on it during the playoffs. But the Clark factor – and the general interest in other rookies like Reese, Brink, Nika Mühl and Kate Martin – should ensure heightened interest and coverage. Add in the Olympics this summer, and women’s basketball is on the up. YE-S
Seattle have the superteams in their crosshairs. The Storm may have drifted from the WNBA’s elite tier since winning their record-tying fourth title in 2020, but a splashy offseason could return them to the top. In addition to opening a sparkling new $64m practice facility, Seattle have added a pair of aging but bona fide stars in Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith while drafting stylish UConn point guard Mühl with the No 14 overall pick. After missing the playoffs for the first time in eight years during a season that saw Jewell Loyd win the scoring title (24.9 points per game) while filling the void left by Sue Bird’s retirement and Breanna Stewart’s departure to Brooklyn, the Storm are right back in the thick of the title hunt. BAG
Related: It won’t be easy for Caitlin Clark in the WNBA, sports’ most unmerciful league
Accelerated growth. Interest in the W – from last season’s playoffs, even from the NCAA women’s tournament – is a runaway train, and it’s not solely focused on Clark. A fan’s cellphone stream of the Sky-Lynx preseason game got more than 2m views on X because it wasn’t available on League Pass. There’s a broadcast deal on the horizon that the W hopes to negotiate together with the NBA, but I sincerely wonder what the league can do in the meantime to get its product to the ever-growing audience clearly ready for it. KH
Candace Parker’s retirement, a reminder of how much time has passed. We were still just kids from Chicago when she and I first met at the 2007 NCAA women’s tournament. But through the years, I’d watch her win two college titles after tearing both ACLs, win three pro titles and an MVP after having a baby in her second WNBA season, and remain humble, generous and at the center of the league’s biggest campaigns (I see you, Captain Underpants) even after blossoming into every bit the superstar we were told she would be. Covering her has been one of the absolute privileges of my career. My only regret is that Pat Summitt – her fierce college coach and mentor – couldn’t be here to see Parker’s full career arc, too. AL
The surprise team will be …
Dallas Wings, but I’m not sure it’s such a big surprise. Even with Satou Sabally slated to be out until August, this team got a tough look at the postseason last year, even giving the Aces a bit of a run. It’s hard for competitors to take a step back, and Dallas came out ferociously against the Fever in their preseason game. The momentum is there. KH
Phoenix Mercury. After dropping to a league-worst 9-31 record last season and missing the playoffs for the first time in 11 years, it’s easy to forget Phoenix came within two wins of the title only 30 months ago. The tentpoles are familiar: presumptive GOAT Diana Taurasi, the soon-to-be-six-time Olympic champion entering her 20th season, and Brittney Griner, another year removed from her Siberian nightmare. But new GM Nick U’Ren also made a blockbuster swap for Kahleah Copper, the 2021 WNBA finals MVP, while adding Natasha Cloud in free agency to shore up a leaky defense and veteran forward Rebecca Allen in a sign-and-trade with Connecticut. Don’t be surprised to see Phoenix back in the final four after last year’s rare stinker. BAG
Phoenix Mercury. And that feels weird to say given their success record, which took a hit last year. But with a new GM (U’Ren) and head coach (Nate Tibbetts) in the fold and Griner back in basketball shape after her Russian detainment, Phoenix look poised to rise from the ashes in a major way. AL
Atlanta Dream. Last season marked their first trip to the playoffs since 2018, and early signs show more promise. Key to their improvement is the retention of stars like Rhyne Howard (the No 1 overall draft pick in 2022), Allisha Gray, and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, all of whom earned All-Star honors last season. The team has also brought in Jordin Canada and Aerial Powers, who bring invaluable experience after winning WNBA titles elsewhere. YE-S
One bold prediction …
Skylar Diggins-Smith will have a fantastic season. The No 3 overall pick in the 2013 draft has had a dramatic year. After missing last season due to the birth of her second child, she said that her team, the Mercury, had denied her access to the team’s facilities. In one of a series of tweets on the situation, she wrote: “But I’m fine with being distanced … bc now I can’t possibly be the villain anymore.” Now at Seattle, Diggins-Smith has a fresh palate to remind everyone of what she is capable of: she boasts career averages of 16.7 points, 5.0 assists, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game. Her partnership with Jewell Loyd at the Storm promises to be one of the season’s most exciting dynamics. YE-S
Rickea Jackson will challenge Caitlin Clark for Rookie of the Year honors. The No 4 pick in last month’s draft isn’t even the most highly touted newcomer in her own locker room thanks to Brink, who went second overall. But the Los Angeles Sparks’ 6ft 2in swingwoman will be counted on immediately to help replace the production of Nneka Ogwumike (19.1 points per game last season) and Canada (13.3), who departed in free agency. Clark winning top rookie honors already feels like a fait accompli, but Jackson will be right on her heels. BAG
Another two expansion teams are named by mid-season (or at least one). It doesn’t make sense to me that with all of the potential markets vying for a franchise, the momentum that’s been building in women’s basketball, and Toronto being named an expansion city, that the WNBA wouldn’t capitalize on the urgency. The cities with bids are serious – Philadelphia, Portland, Denver and Nashville among them – most with the infrastructure and financial backing in place. KH
Related: Caitlin Clark mania reached a fever pitch at the WNBA’s buzziest draft ever | Frida Garza
Becky Hammon lands an NBA head coaching job. A third straight championship with the Aces would make it undeniable. AL
MVP …
A’ja Wilson. It is not groundbreaking to nominate the best player in the world, but if she remains fit throughout the whole season, the Most Valuable Player vote will not even be close. Her ability on both ends of the floor is unmatched. Should she win, she will join Sheryl Swoopes, Lisa Leslie, and Lauren Jackson as the only players with three MVP trophies in the W. YE-S
A’ja Wilson. If the MVP were given to the WNBA’s best basketball player every year, the Aces’ talisman would right now be on course for a third straight trophy (and fourth in five years). But much like in the NBA, it’s a narrative award influenced by factors like voter fatigue. After placing third behind Stewart and Thomas in a historically close MVP race last year, then outperforming them both during another title run, look for Wilson to reclaim the league’s highest individual honor for a record-tying third time. BAG
A’ja Wilson. She’s been candid about how much it stung to see third- and even a fourth-place MVP vote last season, and she came back with a vengeance to win finals MVP. I think that fuel is going to roll over into this season. If outside scoring is the only thing technically keeping her back – and on a team that shot 37.2% from three last year – she’ll no doubt make it a goal to improve. KH
A’ja Wilson. Just like a shot that caroms off the rim, it’s as good as hers until someone else has the courage – or talent – to rip it away. AL
Playoff semi-finalists
Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty, Seattle Storm, Connecticut Sun. YE-S
Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty, Connecticut Sun, Seattle Storm. BAG
Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty, Seattle Storm, Dallas Wings. KH
Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty, Seattle Storm, Connecticut Sun. AL
Your champion will be …
Las Vegas Aces. The Liberty may have taken Vegas to four games in last year’s finals but it really seems like it is the Aces’ title to lose. Their entire playoff roster from last season is still intact, including Wilson, and the team have boasted the best record in the league for three of the past four seasons and secured a postseason berth for five consecutive years. The last time a WNBA three-peated was the Houston Comets during the league’s first three years of existence from 1997 to 1999 (before adding a fourth in 2000). The Aces’ 2023 title elevated them to the ranks of all-time great teams, and now they are primed to ascend even higher with another in 2024. YE-S
Related: The Las Vegas Aces are the next great American sports dynasty
New York Liberty. Everything points to a Las Vegas three-peat. The Aces are one of the best teams I’ve ever seen in men’s or women’s basketball, at least since the KD Warriors, and have shown no sign of slowing down. The execution, the intensity, the discipline and attention to detail: they are so unselfish, so dialed-in and everyone looks like they’re having a blast. They’re also built to withstand injury. But repeating in the WNBA is hard; last year’s Aces were the first team in 20 years to manage it. The Liberty return a big three of Stewie, Ionescu and Jonquel Jones, plus veteran floor general Courtney Vandersloot and two-way workhorse Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, a group whose lack of continuity put them at a disadvantage against the Aces last year. No longer. BAG
Las Vegas Aces. A three-peat just seems destined. With what Wilson wants to prove this season, and the rest of the roster intact, the competition is going to have a hard time stacking up and slowing their steamrolling momentum. Hammon is three tactical steps ahead of her counterparts as a coach, and even with Parker’s retirement and the Liberty hot on the Aces’ heels, it’s going to take a lot to stop this team from taking another title. KH
Las Vegas Aces. They’ve got the best player (Wilson), the best coach (Hammon), the best floor general (Kelsey Plum) and an amazing supporting cast. You’d have to be a fool to bet against the house. AL
