Will Joe Burrow’s calf strain impact contract negotiations with Bengals?

CINCINNATI — An NFL quarterback agent articulated the collective gasp.

“That’s some scary s***,” the agent texted Yahoo Sports, “when he’s THIS close (and eligible!) for his monster mega deal and gets carted off.”

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow was less than 24 hours removed from emphasizing how crucial training camp reps were when, in a team drill on Thursday, he pump-faked and escaped the pocket. Burrow began to scramble and consider his downfield options until suddenly, he was hopping on his left leg and angling to sit down.

Burrow grabbed his right calf, which was already encased in a sleeve. A cart came.

By Friday, head coach Zac Taylor would confirm: Burrow strained his calf. His recovery will “take several weeks.”

The news, while milder than the timeline of an adjacent Achilles injury, stood in stark contrast to Burrow’s Wednesday explanation of why he never considered holding out to expedite his extension. “I’ve wasted” enough practice time the past two years to injury, Burrow explained.

“Maybe business comes first at some point, but” — Burrow shook his head — “I need these days to be my best.”

By week’s end, it was difficult not to wonder: Has Burrow reached that point at which business should now come first? And if so, what exactly does that look like?

Yahoo Sports spoke with two front-office executives and four agents who have negotiated quarterback extensions to understand: How might Burrow’s calf strain impact negotiations? And if these agents and front-office members were negotiating this deal, how would the strain change their tactics?

Breaking down price, timeline for Joe Burrow’s extension

Burrow’s first three years in the NFL create a fairly straightforward starting point for the debate. Burrow is a quarterback, which one agent pointed out is an “extremely rare” position for holdouts given the quarterback’s unique leadership role on and off the field.

He’s thrived, completing 68.2% of passes for 11,774 yards, 82 touchdowns and 31 interceptions in three pro years. Burrow led the league completing 70.4% of passes and averaging 8.9 yards per attempt in 2021.

And Burrow has not only succeeded personally. The 2020 No. 1 overall draft selection led his team to consecutive AFC championship games and a Super Bowl berth.

NFL teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs would be hard-pressed to find better.

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Thus the four agents, who were granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of negotiation tactics, all believe Burrow’s calf strain does not impact his value in negotiations. One executive agreed the strain “won’t impact the value of his deal at all,” while the other thought it wouldn’t impact Burrow’s worth “much.”

None of the six expected the Bengals or Burrow’s representation to delay a deal due to the calf.

“That’d be absurd if they [waited],” one agent said. “At the end of the day, they should be motivated to get this deal done when the dollars are under a 2023 [salary] cap.

“Inflation does matter. If you think you’re overpaying a player in 2023, you get to 2024 and he ain’t overpaid.”

So expect Burrow’s general asking price — and the Bengals’ giving price, if they want a deal — to still edge out the five-year, $262 million extension that the Los Angeles Chargers awarded quarterback Justin Herbert last week. And consider it possible that Burrow’s comments about negotiating a deal that’s “good for the team, good for everybody” will prompt him to sign for at least five years, if not more, to give the Bengals cap certainty and flexibility toward retaining talented skill players like receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

What changes most? The tenor of negotiations and perceived leverage in the debate, say those who know best.

Because while Burrow seems committed to adhering to league norms in which quarterbacks rarely hold out … that doesn’t mean he can’t hold in.

Could a done deal help Joe Burrow ‘heal’ more quickly?

Three of four agents felt strongly: If Burrow was their client, he is not practicing again until the extension is finalized.

“I would heavily advise he doesn’t step one foot on a field until he’s protected and taken care of financially,” one agent said. “Too much at risk.”

Insisted another: “He wouldn’t get back on the field.”

A third said that their client was “probably” not going back out there without a contract, with the injury now a convenient barrier to distinguish between a closed-doors, hard-line negotiation with a front office versus a public show of dismay.

“That’s what you really worry about with a quarterback, because he’s supposed to be the leader of the team,” the agent said. “In this instance, it’s [more], ‘He’s not better. He’s not better.' And he probably will feel a lot better once the contract’s done.”

The lone agent who didn’t feel strongly about slow-playing a return to practice wasn’t resolutely against it. That agent instead said they’d want to confer with their client to “know there’s buy-in from him.”

“If an agent did that without the player in complete support, that would not be good in my opinion,” the agent said. “It’s got to be what’s best for him. And everyone’s different.”

What might Burrow want? It’s interesting that because of the intense confidentiality surrounding Burrow’s negotiations, the greater public may not know if or when Burrow and his agents, Brian Ayrault and Ben Renzin, choose to draw that card. Their commitment to tight lips in this process could increase the likelihood of amicable discussions, and it could reduce Burrow’s leverage without public pressure.

The timeline is also highly relevant, with more than six weeks separating Burrow’s injury and the Bengals’ season opener. Taylor’s public timeline of “several” weeks intimated expectation that Burrow will be available for the season opener. Fielding Burrow in live team reps before then, except minimally in preparation for Week 1, could be more likely to risk aggravation of the calf than it is to bolster offensive fluidity and chemistry.

So how much would a hold-in actually create pressure, if Burrow is still in meetings and his return to practice may not even be in the team’s best interest? Neither front-office person thought Burrow would consider missing a game, or threaten to do so, without a deal.

“I think Joe’s one of those rare competitors, and the Bengals know it,” one exec said. “When Joe feels like he’s healthy, he’s going to be out there playing with or without the new deal done."

The most likely resolution

The deal could come Tuesday or Aug. 10 or Aug. 28. Maybe the Bengals announce it leading into Week 1, as Burrow prepares to start in the opening game of a season that the Bengals feel could be their year.

But the league voices who spoke to Yahoo Sports overwhelmingly expect the Bengals to extend Burrow before the 2023 regular season kicks off. They expect Burrow to make more than Herbert. And they expect — or, in some cases, recommend — the Bengals’ financial sacrifices to fall at positions other than an elite quarterback who most teams would pay exorbitantly to attain.

If a deal does indeed get done before the season starts, we may never publicly know what tactics Burrow’s camp employed and how the calf strain altered or reinforced them. Perhaps that makes the speculation even more fun: an unsolved mystery about one of the league’s most exciting young players.

Burrow, for his part, seems uninterested even in entertaining a conversation about the deal.

“It gets done when it gets done,” he said twice on Wednesday.

His pre-injury comments also suggest his drive to be available Week 1. Burrow said it was “tough to say” when he finally felt up to speed returning from his last injury — in part because he doesn’t really care.

“Once you get close to that first game, you kind of drown all that,” Burrow said. “And go figure out a way to play your best.”