What will the Canadiens have to show for all their deals?
The Montreal Canadiens have developed an idiosyncrasy in recent years where they seem to feel the need to trade away really, really good players.
Since the 2015-16 offseason they’ve moved P.K. Subban, Mikhail Sergachev, Alex Galchenyuk and Max Pacioretty. That’s a No. 1 defenceman, another who’s already a productive top-4 blueliner at the age of 20, and two top-six wingers — one of whom has been one of the best scorers in the league in recent years. If Galchenyuk pans out as top line centre as the Arizona Coyotes hope, that’ll just add insult to injury for the consistently centre-starved Canadiens.
The consensus in the hockey world is that the team didn’t get nearly enough in return for this colossal package of talent – especially considering that other than Pacioretty they were all under team control for years.
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With the exception of prospect Nick Suzuki and a second-round pick (to be fair they relinquished a second-round pick in the Sergachev deal so that’s more or less a wash) everyone the Canadiens got back in this flurry of deals currently resides on the roster. If Marc Bergevin is going to prove people wrong, the players he’s acquired — Jonathan Drouin, Max Domi, Shea Weber and Tomas Tatar — need to perform.
Weber is already well behind the eight ball. A knee injury requiring surgery has him out until late November at the earliest. He’s also 33 now and making $7.857 million against the cap for seven years after this one. The defenceman is still a good player, but the Subban deal was a disaster from the moment it was conceived and Bergevin’s hopes have to reside elsewhere.
Tatar is also not a good place to park them. The 27-year-old winger is solid enough, but he’s far from a difference maker and is often hit with the perhaps-overused “middle-six” label. He probably deserves better than that and is good for 20-plus goals and a little playmaking as a second-line winger, but he won’t play a significant role in helping that Canadiens save face — or their season.
If Montreal is going to make lemonade from this bushel of lemons it’s going to be on the back of the Jonathan Drouin-Max Domi duo. The pair both share high-end skill and draft pedigree, and the Habs will likely count on them to team with Brendan Gallagher to form the team’s top line. On ceiling and name value alone that doesn’t sound so bad, but neither player has seen their production match their potential at the NHL level.
Drouin and Domi combined for a grand total of 22 goals last season — albeit with an unlucky shooting percentage of 7.0 — and that number is going to need to more than double this year for their output to justify their roles. Both players are established playmakers, but even Domi’s strong 36 assists last season came with a highly-fortunate on-ice shooting percentage of 10.4 percent.
Neither guy is particularly known for defensive prowess, physical play (at least smart physical play) or standout possession stats, so they really will be judged by what they put up on the scoreboard and whether either player can take the reins as the team’s top centre. Right now, it looks like Domi’s the horse they’re betting on there, but neither option is immensely appealing down the middle.
Is there is a situation where the two create magic together, break out, and drive the Canadiens offence? Absolutely. Both are 23 and look like they could have another gear, especially with a little ice-time bump. At the same time when you’re absolutely relying on your top players to produce well beyond their career norms, you’re in a tough spot. Realistically speaking, Domi-Drouin-Gallagher sounds like an above-average second line rather than the engine for a whole team’s offence.
Make no mistake, that will be their role. The rest of the Canadiens lineup is a who’s who of “just a guy” guys, and it might be too soon yet for Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Players like Phillip Danault, Paul Byron, Charles Hudon, and the corpse of Tomas Plekanec have their place, but none of them are helping you outscore anyone.
If a team employs a 31-year-old goaltender with a $10.5 million cap hit like Carey Price, they’re always going to be striving for at least respectability as opposed to going for a full Senators-esque teardown. Whether the Habs managed to stay competitive largely rests on the players Bergevin has hand-selected in recent years.
If they can exceed expectations, and Price bounces back, perhaps the Canadiens can attain that respectability in a brutal division. If not, it’s going to be a long year.
The sad thing for Montreal is that either way, they’d be better off with Subban, Sergachev, Galchenyuk and Pacioretty.
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