Wild-card playoff preview: What the 49ers must to do beat the Cowboys

Though many of the wild-card games in the 2021 postseason are regular-season rematches, there isn’t much recent background on the 49ers-Cowboys wild-card matchup. These two teams last faced each other in Week 15 of the 2020 season. It was a 41-33 Cowboys win in which neither Dak Prescott nor Jimmy Garoppolo were on the field. Dallas’ defense, then run by Mike Nolan, wasn’t a patch on the defense we’ve seen under Dan Quinn in 2021, while the 49ers’ defense has stayed solid from season to season despite injury luck in 2020 that was beyond the pale in a bad way..

Now, we have two offenses with recent question marks who have seemed to turn things around of late. Prescott hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 14, and he had 13 touchdown passes in Dallas’ last four games. Garoppolo doesn’t have the same juice as Prescott does, but he did make some big-time throws in the Week 18 win over the Rams that put his team in the playoffs.

This game kicks off at 4:30 p.m. EST on Sunday, January 16. and if the 49ers are to win their first playoff game since 2018, here’s a few things they must do.

Make things manageable for Jimmy Garoppolo.

(Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)

Kyle Shanahan has become an expert in managing Jimmy Garoppolo, whether he likes it or not. The last time the 49ers made the postseason, it was on their way to a 31-20 loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV. In that game, Garoppolo completed 20 passes in 31 attempts for 219 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and some deep shots Garoppolo would certainly like back.

Fast-forward to this season, in which Garoppolo completed 11 of 33 passes of 20 or more air yards for 392 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 71.8. Among starting quarterbacks in 2021, that deep passer rating ranks 28th. Only Daniel Jones and Andy Dalton had a lower percentage of deep throws than Garoppolo’s 7.5%, tied with Tua Tagovailoa.

As the late, great Ralph Wiley once wrote, “A man’s got to know his own limitations. If he doesn’t, his coach should.”

Garoppolo can’t throw deep well. Throughout his career, he’s been a nightmare when asked to process openings and coverage over the middle. The usual crutches for quarterbacks don’t really apply here — Garoppolo has three touchdowns and three interceptions when given the benefit of play-action, and with pre-snap motion (which Shanahan calls more than any coach in the league), Jimmy G has thrown 15 touchdown passes… and a league-high 10 interceptions.

Shanahan is smart enough to know he’s highly limited in the passing game with this particular quarterback, but since Trey Lance isn’t apparently ready for the plan, it’s Jimmy G or bust in this postseason. How can the 49ers get back to the Super Bowl with this many limitations?

Really, the only consistent hope is for Garoppolo to get the ball out quickly into the hands of his playmakers, and trust Shanahan’s schemed openings and concepts to get yards after the catch. That was the case on this 32-yard play made primarily by Deebo Samuel in the 49ers’ regular-season finale against the Rams, and it’s the best way forward.

Don't play man if you can't play man.

(AP Photo/Emilee Chinn)

This season under defensive coordinator Demeco Ryans, the 49ers have played man coverage against just 101 passing attempts, the third-lowest total in the league in the regular season. There are specific reasons for that. When playing man, San Francisco’s defense has given up 63 completions in 101 attempts for 961 yards, nine touchdowns, no interceptions, and a QBR allowed of 123.4 — by far the worst in the NFL. (The Jaguars have the second-highest opponent QBR in man coverage at 113.7). Cover-3 has been this defense’s best option this season, it’s where they got four of their nine total interceptions.

And even when you’re good at man coverage, rolling it out against Dak Prescott is generally Not A Good Strategy. Prescott has scorched man coverage this season, with 97 completions in 174 attempts for 1,357 yards, 17 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 106.4 — fourth-best in the league among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts against man coverage.

Against Cover-3 this season? Prescott has completed 127 of 174 attempts for 1,362 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 92.9 — 10th-highest in the league.

When Prescott’s on, he’s tough to defend no matter the coverage. But the 49ers should specifically avoid man coverage in this game as if it was going out of style.

Don't blitz Dak Prescott... like, ever.

(Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)

The 49ers haven’t dialed up many blitzes this season — in fact, their blitz rate of 19.8% is the NFL’s fourth-lowest in 2021, and the defense has managed a pressure rate of 24.1% despite a high percentage of base fronts. It helps when you have Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Samson Ebukam, Charles Omenihu, and the underrated Kentavius Street as part of your pass-rush plan, and this defensive prototype is wildly beneficial for the 49ers and defensive coordinator Demeco Ryans.

Why? Because if you blitz Dak Prescott, he will kill your defense. It’s as simple as that. This season, against five or more pass-rushers, Prescott has completed 103 of 165 passes for 1,171 yards, 676 air yards, 23 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 113.2. To put that touchdown total in perspective, Aaron Rodgers ranks second this season with scoring passes against the blitz — with 15.

Not that avoiding the blitz with Prescott will automatically provide better returns — in the Cowboys’ regular-season finale against the Eagles, he threw five touchdown passes, and not a single one came against the blitz. But in the previous game against the Cardinals, all three of his touchdown passes came against the blitz, and Vance Joseph’s highly aggressive defense. Prescott is as good as any quarterback in the league in reading pressure, adjusting to the openings left by blitzing defenders, and pulling the trigger to make defenses pay.

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