Why Vanderbilt football's 2024 SEC schedule makes bowl eligibility more difficult
In a world with eight conference games, Vanderbilt football needs only two or three SEC wins to make a bowl game if it takes care of business with nonconference opponents.
The Commodores' 2023 schedule sets up relatively well to do just that. Home games against Auburn, Kentucky and Missouri are winnable and a road tilt with Florida could be too.
That task will get harder in 2024. While some of the same beatable opponents − Auburn, Kentucky and Missouri − will remain on the schedule, all three will be on the road. And the home schedule is brutal, with three potential College Football Playoff contenders in Texas, Tennessee and Alabama, not to mention a road game against LSU.
The Vols will always be on the schedule, and Vanderbilt has won five of the last 11 matchups in that series. The Commodores have a long losing streak against 2024 home opponent South Carolina, but at least that's a team Vanderbilt frequently plays close.
One break in the schedule is that the Commodores will no longer have to play SEC East foe and two-time reigning national champions Georgia every year. The Bulldogs have to be considered the most difficult possible opponent, and Vanderbilt avoids them for just the second time since 1968 (the planned matchup between the two in 2020 was canceled due to COVID-19).
But Alabama is just a miniscule step down from Georgia, and replacing Ole Miss and Florida with Texas and LSU is the toughest break of all. While the Rebels and Gators have had their moments, they've also been beatable. Vanderbilt has beaten Ole Miss eight times since 2005 and notably beat Florida in 2022. Under the old schedule format, the Commodores played both those teams every year. Now, they will be replaced by a rotating cast that's likely to be much more difficult.
To win six games in 2024, Vanderbilt will likely need to take road games from at least two of Auburn, Kentucky or Missouri − or find a way to beat South Carolina at home. And that's not to mention beating nonconference opponents Virginia Tech, SMU and Georgia State.
In the new SEC with Oklahoma, Texas and no divisions, the Commodores will have much less margin for error to get to six wins every year. And it's still undecided whether the league will move to nine conference games in 2025. If that happens, Vanderbilt could have to play an extra conference opponent alongside the return trip to Virginia Tech for a total of 10 games against Power Five opponents.
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According to FBSchedules, the Commodores have at least one road nonconference game scheduled each year through 2029. While moving to nonconference games could potentially give Vanderbilt an out in those contracts, if the league moves to nine conference games, the Commodores could end up playing as many as six road games against Power Five opponents in a single year.
Vanderbilt's facility renovations could help with recruiting, as could qualifying for a bowl game under a more manageable schedule in 2023. But improving the quality of the roster before the new schedule kicks in will be imperative, as the Commodores will no longer have the same margin for error.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Vanderbilt football 2024 SEC schedule: Bowl eligibility more difficult
