Here’s why Tampa Bay Rays attendance during the team’s historic winning streak matters | Editorial
Even good baseball teams lose a lot. It’s baked into the sport. But don’t tell that to the Tampa Bay Rays, who are off to a historic start to the 2023 season. Through Monday, they had won 20 of the first 23 games, something only five other teams had done since 1901. They were unbeaten at Tropicana Field through their first 14 home games, a modern era record. The team also set the all-time record for hitting at least one home run in each of its first 22 games, a streak that finally ended Monday. They could play for another hundred seasons and not get off to such a fast start. So what has all this winning meant for attendance and the franchise’s long-term success in Tampa Bay?
We aren’t asking the question to be antagonistic. We aren’t trying to harsh anyone’s winning buzz. In fact, we hope the team wins 20 out of next 23 games, too. But almost since the start in 1998, the Rays have struggled to attract fans to Tropicana Field. And now, the franchise is negotiating with St. Petersburg over a new stadium and how to redevelop the 86-acre site in a way that will satisfy the Rays, while ensuring the final product benefits the city, too. Future attendance is part of that equation.
So back to the question. The Rays have averaged 17,552 fans through the first 14 home games (ending Monday night), according to Major League Baseball. That’s better than the 16,626 averaged over the same number of games during the seven seasons ending in 2019, before COVID started keeping fans away from the stadium. But it’s not much better — just 926 additional fans, despite a historic winning streak. It feels more like a blooper to right field than an attendance home run.
Another way to think about it: How much was each win above the average worth in additional attendance? The Rays had won 20 games through Monday. Crunch the numbers and that’s 7.6 more wins than the team averaged over the same number of games in the previous decade. Based on the 926 additional fans per game, each win above the average translated to 121 more people at the games. The Rays are playing like one of the best teams in baseball history, and each extra win correlates to fewer than 125 more fans. Baseball is a game of numbers — and that isn’t a good one.
Obviously, this analysis is far from perfect. It is based on a small number of total games and even fewer home games. The number crunching doesn’t take into account whether the Rays were playing the New York Yankees (who normally draw more fans) or the Texas Rangers (who don’t). It also fails to consider which days of the week the home games were played or whether a special event was taking place that would have drawn more fans to the stadium. COVID fears might also still be keeping some fans away. Still, attendance isn’t keeping up with the team’s winning ways.
The analysis is not a criticism so much as a reality check. On the field, the Rays have been good for years, making the playoffs the last four seasons and getting to the World Series in 2020, despite a payroll that looks like a child’s allowance compared to the Mets, Yankees and Padres. Winning hasn’t filled Tropicana Field with fans, and winning alone won’t likely fill a new stadium either, at least not game after game and year after year.
That’s why it’s so important for the Rays and the city to get the redevelopment right, assuming they reach an agreement in the coming months. They must arrive at the ideal mix of retail, housing, workspace and entertainment — and make it all inviting and accessible, a place that appeals to the masses, while also attracting enough ticket-buyers into the stadium. By staying at the same location in St. Petersburg, the Rays will be threading a financial needle, especially when it comes to attendance. History shows that winning won’t be enough.
Editorials are the institutional voice of the Tampa Bay Times. The members of the Editorial Board are Editor of Editorials Graham Brink, Sherri Day, Sebastian Dortch, John Hill, Jim Verhulst and Chairman and CEO Conan Gallaty. Follow @TBTimes_Opinion on Twitter for more opinion news.
