Why I projected Tennessee Titans to trade back − not up − in 2023 NFL Draft mock
Given recent history, it'd be more surprising if the Tennessee Titans use the No. 11 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft than if they traded it.
The team with the 11th pick in the draft has traded back each of the last two years. In 2022, the Washington Commanders turned No. 11 into picks Nos. 16, 98 and 120. In 2021, the New York Giants turned the 11th pick into Nos. 20 and 164 as well as future first and fourth rounders.
Using those trades as precedent, there's clearly a lot of value to be gained by moving back 5-10 picks in the middle of the first round. That's why in my third 2023 mock draft I have the Titans trading back from No. 11 to No. 21 and picking Tennessee offensive lineman Darnell Wright.
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We'll get to why Wright in a second, but first, let's talk value. The 2021 Giants got two first and two fourths to move back nine spots. So to move back 10, it feels reasonable the Titans would be able to get two or three early picks this year plus maybe an extra mid-rounder next year.
Let's say the Titans move back 10 spots and gain picks No. 54 and No. 125 plus a future pick. Using Jimmy Johnson's trade value chart, this is a roughly equal deal, with the Titans' giving a pick worth 1,250 points of value and getting back picks worth 1,207 points and a pick to be sorted out later.
I think there's value in a move like this for three main reasons:
The Titans have too many holes to plug with six draft picks. Getting that number up to eight, including five in the first four rounds instead of three, is huge.
This draft class is deeper in the second and third rounds than it is strong at the top. Teams are more likely to find multiple solid starters this year than they are to find one transcendent superstar outside the top six picks.
There isn't much distinction between the top five players at most of the Titans' positions of need. Given the players likely to be picked in the top 10, the Titans could probably get just as good of an offensive lineman, cornerback, edge rusher or wide receiver at No. 21 as they can at No. 11.
Trading down isn't exciting. Trading down to draft an offensive lineman even less so. Especially one like Wright who doesn't necessarily profile as a future left tackle. But the Titans have spoken time and again about how much they value versatility. Wright is a dominant pass protector with great knowledge of the game and extremely quick reactions who also happens to have high-level experience at tackle and guard.
If the Titans pick Wright, they can pencil him in as a starter Week 1. Whether that's at tackle or guard or depends on where the coaches like him best and how his teammates look in training camp. Either way, he's an immediate upgrade for the roster as currently configured and as it stood to end last season.
Sure, if the Titans fall in love with the right prospect, they can be tempted to trade up from 11 instead of down. Particularly if that prospect is a quarterback the team thinks can keep the Titans competitive with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen in the AFC. But doing so essentially would be punting on the upcoming season, choosing not to plug the roster's biggest holes in favor of starting over to build around a new nucleus.
It's a fair strategy, but it'd involve giving up an awful lot for a gamble on, likely, the third or fourth best quarterback in the draft class.
Instead, being patient and building with numbers until the team is in better position to draft a quarterback − and could have some young stars for him to grow up with − feels like the better bet.
Nick Suss is the Titans beat writer for The Tennessean. Contact Nick at nsuss@gannett.com. Follow Nick on Twitter @nicksuss.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Why I'm projecting Tennessee Titans to trade back, pick Darnell Wright
