Why Patriots fans can trust Bill Belichick in vital 2021 offseason

For those of you who had an affinity for playing armchair GM with your video-game football team back in the PlayStation 2 era (2003-to-2007-ish) on Madden or ESPN NFL 2K5 (back when simulation football franchise mode was at it’s peak), you may be familiar with a portion of how Bill Belichick is feeling right now.

Excited. Hyper-focused. Palms sweaty, knees weak, arms heavy. (Excuse the bit, but we’ve officially entered early 2000s mode with the PlayStation 2 references).

Quite frankly, it wouldn’t necessarily be wrong to call this the most important offseason of Belichick’s general-managing career.

The NFL’s free agency period is just two weeks away from kickoff and the Patriots find themselves with a gaping hole at quarterback for the first time since the Super Nintendo generation.

Not to mention, additional afflictions that brought last year’s team down to a 7-9 record include a lack of speed and talent at wide receiver, alarmingly inept production from the tight end spot and a defensive front seven in need of a mini-overhaul after dropping to 26th in run defense — 131.4 yards allowed per game in 2020.

But as hot-take artists are ready to stick a fork in the impossible Tom Brady versus Belichick debate, educated people are aware that Belichick is playing a longer game relative to Brady’s do-or-die, 17th-hole put in Tampa, in which he delivered with his win-now supporting cast.

In New England, almost every season under Belichick (and formerly, Brady, too) has taken place in win-now mode. But even “The Hoodie” succumbed to explanation when discussing his 2020 team with the media at midseason.

“We sold out and won three Super Bowls, played in a fourth, and played in an AFC Championship Game. This year we have less to work with. It’s not an excuse. It’s just the facts,” Belichick told WEEI in October.

“Look, we paid Cam Newton a million dollars [on July 8]. It’s obvious we didn’t have any money. It’s nobody’s fault. That’s what we did the last five years.”

Whether or not the 2020 Patriots were mortally handicapped by previous years of cap gymnastics in order to reach four Super Bowls in the six previous years with Brady, is up for discussion.

But now, even Belichick knows this is the beginning of put-up-or-shut-up time in his post-Brady endeavors.

New England enters this offseason with the projected third-most cap space ($62.2 million). according to Over The Cap, in an offseason when most teams will be financially handicapped. The Pats also have a better-than-usual slew of draft picks, including pick No. 15 in the first round. Plus, some of last season’s sorely-missed opt-outs (Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung) are set to return for a once-more-into-the-fray battle under “The Patriot Way.”

The assets are there, and history suggests Belichick will use them wisely.

Over the last two decades, when Belichick feels backed into a corner with his current roster, he becomes aggressive in improving it.

After New England fell to Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts in the 2006 AFC title game, Belichick knew Brady’s passing was diminished by a receiving core that trotted out Reche Caldwell as it’s No. 1 option. Then, there was his aging linebacking core at the second level of his defense.

So, in the 2007 offseason, the Patriots famously acquired receivers Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth, along with 3-4 outside linebacker Adalius Thomas.

During the Pats’ disappointing 2009 season, NFL Films captured a telling conversation between Belichick and Brady on the sidelines during a 38-17, Monday night loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints.

“We just have no mental toughness,” Belichick told Brady about the current state of the team. “We can’t play the game the way we need to play it…I just can’t get this team to play the way we need to play. I just can’t do it. It’s so (expletive) frustrating…And the tougher it gets, the lest likely we are to do it.”

Brady and Belichick had an open conversation regarding the state of the 2009 Patriots during their blowout loss to the Saints. (Screenshot: NFL Films)

After their 2009 campaign — which ended in an ugly home wild card loss — Belichick had one of his most successful drafts, selecting the likes of Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Spikes and Aaron Hernandez, which helped to carry New England’s success into the next decade.

In the 2014 offseason, after Aqib Talib left an already under-improving defensive backfield, New England became aggressive in acquiring cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, as well as X-receiver Brandon LaFell, who helped fill a role that was not adequately filled by Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins the season before.

At times, Belichick has even been pre-emptive in aggressively adding talent. The 2017 offseason serves as an example of that. Then, Belichick traded a first-round pick for deep-threat receiver Brandin Cooks, and signed cornerback Stephon Gilmore to a mega deal just weeks after New England’s legendary Super Bowl 51 victory over Atlanta.

If you dive even further, Belichick had success with several other re-toolings in the offseasons of 2003 and 2016. And let’s not forget the exciting signings of wide receivers Josh Gordon and Antonio Brown for Brady in 2018 and 2019, even if neither worked out as they would have liked.

The point is, if you’re expecting Belichick to idly sit around waiting for the likes of the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins to pull away in the AFC East, you’re wildly mistaken.

Now, without Brady, there’s a whole other level of offseason planning needed to be done.

Do the Patriots go with Cam Newton and a rookie QB in Round 1? Do they trade for Marcus Mariota? Does Jimmy Garoppolo fall right back into their laps?

Whatever the plan is, we can be sure that Belichick and his staff have already simulated several different scenarios to the tune of some masterful Ernie Adams-led practice method, and that the team will be ready to strike when the time is right.

The same can be said for additions at pass catcher (WR/TE), the D-line and at linebacker.

As we impatiently wait for free agency (and the draft) to begin, it’s only human to become nervous over the state of the Patriots roster.

But just like we all watched this past Patriots season on television, Belichick did the same in a more intimate manner. He knows where his team vastly needs to improve.

For New England, reinforcements are coming, just like they always do under Belichick.