Why Patrick Mahomes can't pass Tom Brady as the NFL GOAT quarterback
Let's be honest. Most of these G.O.A.T. (Greatest of All-Time) sports debates are fun, ridiculous, nauseating and exhilarating all rolled into one.
Thousands of sports discussions and segments through TV, YouTube and different digital media platforms revolve around them. It's never-ending, for better or worse. Trust me, I enjoy them myself.
Messi or Ronaldo? Federer, Nadal or Djokovic? Nicklaus or Woods? Jordan, LeBron or Kobe? Lewis or Bolt?
I can go on.
However, as a connoisseur of sports history, there is one GOAT argument I am certain about and that's that Patrick Mahomes can't pass Tom Brady as the greatest quarterback in NFL history.
Finito. It's a wrap. Sign, sealed and delivered.
With the NFL playoffs set to kickoff this weekend and Mahomes aiming to lead the Kansas City Chiefs to back-to-back Super Bowl titles − a possible third for the QB − the ongoing discussion surrounding whether the two-time NFL MVP can catch and surpass Brady, who's chilling in retirement at the moment, will surely resurface.
TB12 doesn't have anything to worry about (not that he cares at all anyway). The "Greatest Ever" title attached to his name will be safe for a very long time. There's nothing the great Mahomes can do to pass him.
Why?
One simple answer: Head-to-Head.
In terms of career accomplishments, individual accolades, career stats, season-by-season stats, regular season success, postseason success, longevity, having numerous records, producing arguably the greatest season ever for a quarterback (2007), leading the Patriots to an undefeated regular season (16-0 in 2007), leading New England to a still NFL record 21-game winning streak that spanned from the 2003 season to the 2004 season (regular season and playoffs combined), being the best clutch and big-game quarterback ever, ability-wise and peak performance (unreal high level run from 2007-2017) and so on, Brady has not only accomplished more than any quarterback ever but also more than any player regardless of position in pro football history.
Just go look at Brady's resume. It's impeccable. That's a CV that no player, quarterback or non-quarterback, will odds-on never touch. Including Mahomes.
While at age 28 and in his seventh season in the league (sixth as a starting quarterback), Mahomes is quite accomplished himself. He's without doubt the finest signal-caller in the game today (likely already a top-10 all-time quarterback that's moving up the list), the ultimate game-changer who's sorcery-like, video game efforts wows us all, but he had his chance at becoming the GOAT and fell short both times when everything was on the line.
2018 AFC Championship Game
Overall, Brady and Mahomes had a 3-3 record against each other, yet two of those games took place in the postseason − the first in the 2018 AFC Championship Game and second at the 2020 Super Bowl − which Brady won both.
The 2018 AFC Championship Game featured the No. 2 seeded Patriots (11-5 record) at the No. 1 seeded Chiefs (12-4), who were the slight favorites, had the league MVP in the 23-year-old Mahomes coming off tossing 50 TD passes in the regular season and was the talk of the NFL in his first season as the starting quarterback. Brady was 41, and New England was on the last legs of their two-decade dynastic run.
In one to remember and a matchup that was fairly even going into it, New England prevailed 37-31 in overtime.
Here were their game numbers:
Brady: 30/46, 348 passing yards, 1 TD pass-2 INTs, 7.6 YPA, 82.6 QBR, 77.1 passer rating
Mahomes: 16/31, 295 passing yards, 3 TD passes- 0 INT, 9.5 YPA, 74.8 QBR, 117 passer rating
Judging by the numbers, some stats favor Brady, while some favor Mahomes. But that doesn't tell the whole story. When the game was tight and their team needed them to deliver, Brady took the bull by the horn and did just that. The Patriots won the coin toss, got the ball and Brady drove them 75 yards on 13 plays down the field, where he converted three straight, clutch third down throws that led to the game-winning score.
GOAT stuff.
Watch it here.
Yeah, I know Mahomes never got a chance to touch the ball in overtime due to the overtime rules at the time (that were later changed in 2022 to ensure both teams receive the ball at least once on offense) but still. Brady could have easily not been up to the task but he was, and seized the opportunity like a true great.
Checkmate to Tom.
2020 Super Bowl
Now onto Super Bowl LV.
Mahomes and Kansas City were the best team in the league in 2020, sporting an NFL-best record 14-2 record and went into the Super Bowl against an 11-5 Tampa Bay team, as the favorite. Mahomes (age 25) and Brady (age 43) was billed as the New Guard vs the Old Guard, was super-hyped and was possibly the greatest Super Bowl quarterback matchup ever, with only a peak Joe Montana against peak Dan Marino in 1984 (Super Bowl XIX) as its main competition.
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With that being said, Brady (21/29, 201 passing yards, 3 TD passes-0 INT, 6.9 YPA, 76.7 QBR, 125.8 passer rating) simply outplayed Mahomes (26/49, 270 passing yards, 0 TD passes-2 INTs, 5.5 YPA, 42.2 QBR, 52.3 passer rating) as the Buccaneers crushed the Chiefs 31-9, with Tom taking home Super Bowl MVP honors for the fifth time. The old guy was just better from start to finish than the younger guy, who was viewed as the best player in football at that time.
A huge notch in the belt for Tom.
I know what some football pundits or Kansas City fans will say, and have said. They'll bring up that Mahomes didn't have three of his five starting offensive lineman in the biggest game of the season and his play, along with the rest of the offense, was compromised. That's true about the injuries, but were those injuries such a blow that it was the deciding factor in the Chiefs getting blown out and why Mahomes played so poorly?
I don't believe so.
Injuries happen and while having your full starting offensive line is very important to the structure of an elite offense like the Chiefs had that year, it wasn't the sole determining outcome. There are other factors in the game that played a role as well. Simply put, across the board, Tampa was just better that night than Kansas City, and Brady outfoxed Mahomes on the grandest stage.
That can't be denied.
No way around surpassing Brady now
With just a small sample size in their head-to-head meetings, Brady went 2-0 against Mahomes in two postseason games, for the most part performed fairly better in those contests and has bragging rights forever. Mahomes can never erase that. Brady will have that edge no matter if Mahomes happens to equal his seven Super Bowl titles or wins more.
The true tiebreaker is in the head-to-head record, especially in the postseason when championships are being chased.
Head-to-head matters because what's the best way to determine who's better between two great players?
Matching up face-to-face is the way, whether in a team sport or individual sport. I know individual and team sports differ in many ways, and certain components might have to be taken into consideration in terms of analyzing the context but the endgame remains the same.
If Player A keeps beating Player B or gets the better of the other when the stakes are at its highest and all things are even, doesn't that come to the conclusion that Player A is just better than Player B? Not entirely, but largely yes. But every situation is different.
Don't believe me.
It's the same reason why Muhammad Ali rates higher than Joe Frazier all-time as a heavyweight fighter. Ali went 2-1 against his main rival. The same reason why Magic Johnson ranks higher − on most all-time NBA lists − than Larry Bird. Magic and his Lakers went 2-1 against Larry and his Celtics in the NBA Finals. The same reason why Martina Navratilova is greater than Chris Evert. She won the head-to-head battle 43-37, including most imperatively, going 10-4 against her in Grand Slam finals and better yet, 14-8 overall in Grand Slam matches.
Now some would say, well Peyton Manning finished 3-2 in playoff matches against Tom Brady, doesn't that make him better all-time? Not exactly because if you weigh their careers in full in an objective manner, Brady comes out on top over Manning. Too much body of work from Brady to ignore. That argument has been over with for awhile now.
You get the picture.
If Mahomes would have went 1-1 against Brady, then he would still have a viable shot at the GOAT title. It would have been six Super Bowl titles for Brady and three for Mahomes right now. If Mahomes happened to win those two games, then he would only trail Brady by one Super Bowl (Brady's five titles to Mahomes' four). Mahomes would then have the edge with a 2-0 head-to-head playoff record.
Now were cooking.
But going 0-2, where he will never get another shot at beating Brady in the playoffs, all while trailing in the Super Bowl department (Brady 7, Mahomes 2) puts a dent in that argument forever. Plus, the likelihood of Mahomes or any quarterback ever catching Brady's seven championships, along with 10 Super Bowl appearances, is slim to none.
Even if you think Mahomes is a better quarterback and plays the position at a higher level (I don't necessarily but that's another discussion), he won't ever be greater though. There's a difference.
Unfortunately, that chapter is closed for Mahomes. He can reach No. 2 but becoming the greatest NFL quarterback of all-time is out of reach.
Brady has that on lock.
jsimpson@gannett.com
Twitter:@JamesSimpsonII
This article originally appeared on Ashland Times Gazette: One main reason why Patrick Mahomes can't pass Tom Brady as the GOAT
