Why offensive players are dominating 2024 NFL Mock Draft, especially the top 10
With just a few weeks left in the NFL's regular season and college football bowl season in full swing, many fans are turning their attention to the offseason and the 2024 NFL Draft. Six teams have been eliminated from NFL playoff contention after Week 15: the New England Patriots, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, and Washington Commanders.
Except for Carolina, those are the teams that will be selecting at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft. The final order isn't set yet but those teams will be picking some of the best prospects this coming April.
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USA TODAY's Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz's NFL mock draft 2024 mapped out scenarios for the whole first round, including nine offensive players in the first 10 picks. If that holds true, that'd be the most offensive players drafted in the top 10 in the last decade. Here's why:
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The last time the top 10 picks were nearly this lopsided towards the offense was in 2021. That year saw offensive players drafted in the first seven picks of the draft, starting with quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
For the 2024 NFL Draft, there's many talented prospects at key positions on offense once again. The headliners are 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and fellow quarterback Drake Maye. The Athletic's Dane Brugler says both players have the talent and potential to be top-10 quarterbacks. Maye's drawn comparisons to Los Angeles Chargers star Justin Herbert and Williams has been called the second-best quarterback prospect of the last decade. It's no surprise they're 1-2 in Middlehurst-Schwartz's mock draft.
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High-profile talent is elsewhere on offense, too. Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. would've likely been the top wide receiver drafted in 2023. Instead, the Biletnikoff Award winner and Heisman finalist will likely be one of the first players taken in April, probably third behind the two quarterbacks as he is in this mock draft.
He's not the only top talent at the position, either. LSU's Malik Nabers would likely be the top wideout in a year without Harrison Jr. after leading the FBS in receiving yards (1,546) and tying for second in receiving touchdowns (14). Add in Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman (mocked at seventh overall) and that's a stacked position.
Same goes for offensive tackle. Notre Dame's Joe Alt is just the second tackle since 2010 to make the Associated Press All-America team as a sophomore. This year, he's drawn comparisons as a bigger, stronger Jake Matthews and is Pro Football Focus' top-rated college tackle. But he may not be the best tackle prospect in this class; that title could go to Penn State's Olu Fashanu, who likely would've been the top tackle taken in the 2023 NFL Draft. Alabama's J.C. Latham is no slouch and makes it three tackles in the top 10 of Middlehurst-Schwartz's mock.
Throw in do-everything tight end Brock Bowers from Georgia - mocked at No. 10 - and the strong emphasis on offense makes sense.
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After Williams and Maye, there's still a chance more quarterbacks make it to the top of the first round. Heisman winner Jayden Daniels could rise even more after an incredible season that showed progression from his early seasons in Arizona State. Middlehurst-Schwartz has him up to the 21st selection in the mock draft.
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy is in contention to be a first-round pick. He was one of the top quarterbacks by QBR this season but the Wolverines' preference for the ground game (161.8 rushing yards per game in 2023) could leave evaluators with some doubt. The top 10 isn't out of the question but would be a surprise.
Pac-12 Heisman finalists Bo Nix of Oregon and Michael Penix Jr. of Washington could also make their way to the first round. The top 10 picks is likely too high but not impossible.
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How the 2024 NFL Draft looks on defense
Recent drafts have been more balanced with defensive talent going first off the board. The 2022 NFL Draft saw defensive players taken with each of the first five picks and the 2023 NFL Draft included four defensive players in the top 10.
There are plenty of first round-caliber players on defense for this April. Middlehurst-Schwartz's mock draft sees UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu going ninth overall. Fellow edge rusher Dallas Turner of Alabama is a common pick for the top 10 as well.
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More defensive players could be picks outside of the top 10. Cornerbacks Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama), Nate Wiggins (Clemson), Cooper DeJean (Iowa), and Terrion Arnold (Alabama) were all mocked to the first round. More edge rushers will likely be drafted in the first round as well, including Florida State's Jared Verse (mocked 15th overall), Penn State's Chop Robinson (18th), and Ohio State's JT Tuimoloau (19th).
There's no shortage of talent on that side of the ball but, as this latest mock shows, it can't quite compare to offense for the 2024 NFL Draft.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Latest 2024 NFL Mock Draft sees offense dominating top 10
