Why next month of Ole Miss football's schedule suits Rebels' strengths under Lane Kiffin

OXFORD — A flood of fans rushed from the bleachers after Ole Miss football topped LSU on Saturday, igniting the kind of party reserved for upset victories — and costing the Rebels' athletic department $100,000.

To the delight of their accountants, Ole Miss might not get another upset opportunity for a while.

As of Monday afternoon, Caesars Sportsbook projected Ole Miss (4-1, 1-1 SEC) as an 11-point favorite when Arkansas (2-3, 0-2) visits on Saturday (6:30 p.m., SEC Network).

With a trip to Auburn and a home game against Vanderbilt next, it would be surprising to see No. 15 Ole Miss given underdog status before the month of November, which includes a home game against Texas A&M and going on the road for Georgia.

Much of the conversation following a flat performance at Alabama and the exhilarating victory over the then-No. 12 Tigers has revolved around coach Lane Kiffin's relationship with big games — in other words, games that the Rebels aren't necessarily expected to win.

The Alabama loss supported a longstanding narrative that he couldn't win the big one. He had entered the season 1-19 as a head coach against Power Five teams that went on to win at least nine games. The LSU victory challenged that narrative.

Here's what is rarely talked about: When Kiffin's teams are expected to win, they usually do. Since he arrived for the 2020 season, the Rebels are 22-4 overall in games they've been favored, and 11-2 in the SEC. As a double-digit favorite, they have never lost under him.

Certainly, those stats represent a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Shockingly, you are indeed more likely to win when you're favored. Who knew?

But there were two double-digit upsets among the 30 games involving a Power Five team played last week. So maybe it's worth considering whether there's something in Kiffin's approach that allows him to handle these situations well.

He did not ignore the flaws in Ole Miss' performance against LSU, despite the landmark win and the euphoria that followed. He said the defense did "everything you can bad," and expressed his displeasure at some of the penalties his team had taken.

"I'm sure for two days they heard how great they were outside of here, so we made sure they saw that they made a lot of mistakes in that game in all three phases," Kiffin said. "Way too many penalties. Poor decisions. Selfish decisions on some penalties because players are frustrated. That can't happen, so we have a lot to work on."

UP FOR THE CHALLENGE?: Ole Miss' Lane Kiffin on growth of Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson: 'He gets bigger every year'

Given the choice to craft the schedule to his whims, would Kiffin select Arkansas to follow the emotional high the Rebels are coming down from? The Razorbacks had them beaten by halftime in Fayetteville last season, jumping to a 42-6 lead before Ole Miss scored its first touchdown. (Caesars Sportsbook had touted that game as a pick 'em.)

Those who were around for that beatdown know exactly what happens when the Razorbacks are overlooked.

"This is a very challenging opponent," Kiffin said. "I know they've lost a few in a row, but they took LSU down to the wire at LSU and have given us a lot of problems . . . This is a really big challenge for us to play really well and contain these guys."

David Eckert covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at deckert@gannett.com or reach him on Twitter @davideckert98.

Get the latest news and insight on SEC football by subscribing to the SEC Unfiltered newsletter, delivered straight to your inbox.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Why next month of Ole Miss football suits strengths under Lane Kiffin