Why Mike Gundy's Oklahoma State football reign could've been delayed if not for Nick Saban

In Nick Saban’s words, his decision to leave LSU after the 2004 season to become the head coach of the Miami Dolphins was a “huge mistake.”

“I know a lot of LSU fans think I left for whatever reasons, but I left because I wanted to be a pro coach, or thought I wanted to be a pro coach,” Saban told the USA Today Network in 2019. “We loved LSU. We worked hard to build the program.

“If there was one thing professionally that I would do over again, it would’ve been not to leave LSU.”

What if Saban, who retired earlier this month after 17 seasons at Alabama, where he won six national championships, didn’t take the Dolphins job? What if he stayed at LSU, where he won a national championship in 2003 against OU?

It’s a complex web of what-ifs for the entire college football landscape. It’s an especially interesting what-if for OSU.

If Saban stays at LSU, does Les Miles, who replaced Saban in Baton Rouge, stick around in Stillwater? And what becomes of Mike Gundy’s career? It seems unthinkable that Gundy never becomes the guy at OSU given his ties to the school, but Gundy’s start might have at least been delayed.

Of course, these what-ifs are impossible to answer. But why not have some fun?

More: Mussatto: Arizona's loss of Jedd Fisch is win for Oklahoma State football, rest of Big 12

Nick Saban stays at LSU, Les Miles stays at OSU

On Jan. 2, 2005, Les Miles was named LSU’s head coach, emerging from a pool of candidates to replace Saban that reportedly included Butch Davis and Bobby Petrino.

Miles, who spent four seasons at OSU, had just coached the Cowboys to a 33-7 loss to Ohio State in the Alamo Bowl four days earlier.

“I can understand why LSU or any program would be interested in Coach Miles,” then-OSU athletic director Harry Birdwell said in the lead up to the bowl game. “But within the last 30 days, we extended his contract.

“We hope he’ll be our coach for a long, long time. We think it’s a package that would keep him in Stillwater. That’s obviously what we want.”

What if Miles was OSU’s coach for a long, long time?

As for the Tigers, LSU under Saban probably looks a lot like Alabama under Saban. But don’t discount what Miles did in Baton Rouge. He coached LSU to two national championship games, one of which the Tigers won in 2007.

I suppose Saban could’ve been an LSU lifer, but Alabama or another top-five program would’ve called at some point.

As for Miles, let’s assume he stays in Stillwater. At least for another season or three.

More: Why transfer tight end Tyler Foster sees 'really promising' opportunity at Oklahoma State

Les Miles, a Michigan man, returns to alma mater

So Miles, not Gundy, coaches the Cowboys in 2005 — a season in which OSU went 4-7 (1-7 Big 12). Maybe that down season in Stillwater looks different under Miles, maybe not.

And I know there are thousands of hypotheticals that could’ve happened in the meantime, but let’s say Miles remains in Stillwater, with Gundy as his right-hand man, through the 2007 season.

Because if Saban stayed at LSU and if Miles stayed at OSU for three more seasons than they did — a big if, I know — then there’s a darn good chance that Miles, not Rich Rodriguez, is hired as Michigan’s head coach after Lloyd Carr retired after the 2007 season.

Miles was a Michigan man through and through. He played on the offensive line for Bo Schembechler from 1972-75. Miles then coached under Schembechler as a graduate assistant, and then Miles returned to Michigan, where he served as offensive line coach from 1987-94.

Michigan tried to hire Miles in 2007, but Miles was preparing his Tigers to play in the national championship game, which LSU won against Michigan's rival, Ohio State.

Michigan didn’t want to wait around. The Wolverines hired Rodriguez away from West Virginia in mid-December, three weeks before Miles’ Tigers beat the Buckeyes in the national championship game.

Does Michigan still go after Miles in 2007 if he’s at OSU instead of LSU? I don’t see why not, unless things were crumbling in Stillwater. Luring Miles away from LSU wasn’t possible at that time. But poaching him from OSU? That likely would’ve been much easier, and there’s no chance Miles says no to the Maize and Blue.

More: Oklahoma State football adds RB with local ties. Who's in, out via portal? Here's the list

Mike Gundy finally gets shot at OSU

Had Saban stayed at LSU, and had Miles stayed at OSU, who knows what Gundy does in the interim. Is he content staying on as Miles’ offensive coordinator at OSU? Does Gundy get a head coaching offer elsewhere? Maybe, but even if that’s so, isn’t he still the name at the top of OSU’s list when Miles bolts for Michigan? As much as Miles was a Michigan man, Gundy was even more so an Oklahoma State man.

Rather than taking over at OSU in 2005, the greatest coach in program history doesn’t snatch the reins until 2008. Instead of entering his 20th season as head coach in 2024, Gundy would be entering his 17th season.

So not all is lost, but you can’t take anything for granted.

The Cowboys are glad they got their guy in Gundy when they did. LSU still won two national championships post-Saban. And Alabama? The Crimson Tide did just fine.

Saban might regret leaving LSU when he did, but it couldn’t have worked out much better for OSU.

Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe's work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Why Mike Gundy's OSU reign could've been delayed if not for Nick Saban