Why Jim Harbaugh's impending suspension shouldn't impact Michigan's national title hopes

East Carolina. UNLV. Bowling Green. Rutgers.

Give the 2023 Michigan schedule maker a bonus because the Wolverines' soft opening of a much-anticipated campaign may prove to be as valuable as J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum and Will Johnson combined.

Head coach Jim Harbaugh and the NCAA are working toward a negotiated resolution that is expected to see Harbaugh serve a four-game suspension to start the season. The penalties stem from allegations he made false statements to NCAA investigators in a case largely involving Level II — or minor to moderate — violations.

The NCAA is a voluntary organization and thus considers lying to its enforcement staff to be a serious — Level 1 — violation. Hence the significant suspension.

The penalty — a quarter-season suspension — is undoubtedly harsh considering the current state of college athletics. Due to new name, image and likeness rules and general NCAA enforcement incompetence, things that once seemed to be egregious violations are now either legal or simply ignored.

Yet Harbaugh has no one but himself to blame.

He was initially investigated for clear, but hardly significant, violations. He allegedly met with two recruits at an Ann Arbor hamburger joint during a COVID-19 dead period. He allegedly watched some player workouts over Zoom. Some so-called “analysts” allegedly participated in actual coaching during a practice.

On their own, they merited not much more than a slap on the wrist. All Harbaugh had to do was admit to them, get a little refresher course on the NCAA manual and all would be forgiven and forgotten.

Instead the NCAA alleged, and apparently Harbaugh is ready to agree, he misled investigators when first questioned. He apparently didn’t think about credit card receipts, video footage and other evidence that might be ironclad.

As such, everything snowballed to this.

Getting hit with a quarter-season suspension is not easy these days. Consider that current McNeese State and former LSU basketball coach Will Wade was given just a one-third of a season suspension (10 games) after being caught on an FBI wiretap discussing a “strong-ass offer” to a recruiting middleman.

Right or wrong, that’s how the system works.

Michigan’s saving grace is that September schedule. It should blunt the impact of the suspension in a year when Michigan is eyeing a third consecutive Big Ten championship and third consecutive College Football Playoff appearance.

Harbaugh, sources said, is likely to be suspended only on gamedays. In other words, he can continue to coach the team and game plan during the week. He just won’t be on the sideline at kickoff.

ECU, UNLV and Bowling Green are all Group of Five opponents being paid significant amounts to come and play in Ann Arbor. ECU went 8-5 last year and is potentially dangerous. UNLV (5-7) and Bowling Green (6-7) are coming off losing campaigns.

Rutgers is in the Big Ten but went just 4-8 last year. Michigan beat the Scarlet Knights, 52-17, in Piscataway, New Jersey, last season (Rutgers did lead 17-14 at the half).

Anything can happen, of course. In 2007, Michigan Stadium was home to one of college football’s most stunning upsets when then Division I-AA Appalachian State beat the Wolverines. That said, if you are going to be without your head coach, this is about as good as it gets.

No big early season non-conference clash, the way Ohio State travels to Notre Dame or Alabama hosts Texas. No marquee start to the Big Ten season.

Offensive line coach Sherrone Moore is one candidate to fill in for Harbaugh, except he may be caught up in these violations himself and receive a one-game suspension. We’ll see when it’s all done.

The stakes couldn’t be much higher this season.

Michigan returns the bulk of its skill players and has again added some talented transfers. Expectations are centered on reaching the national title game, if not winning it all.

To do that, the Wolverines will have to again defeat Penn State and Ohio State, but those games come in November.

As long as they can avoid getting derailed early when their coach is out, much of this will be forgotten.

If so, the schedule maker should get a bonus, because Michigan may turn out lucky to skate through a problem of their head coach’s own making.