Analysis courtesy of The Action Network’s PJ Walsh. Yahoo Sports is partnering with The Action Network during the football season to bring you expert sports betting information and analysis.
While it’s not surprising to see the NFL’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars get more betting tickets, Thursday’s Houston vs. Tulane college football game is still attracting a respectable amount of action from bettors.
In fact, just in terms of pure betting value, Houston vs. Tulane is likely offering the more advantageous wagering opportunity.
According to our Action Pro Systems, there are two historically profitable angles with win rates above 56 percent aligned on the same side of this matchup.
Let’s look at both systems and why they like the Houston vs. Tulane game so much. You can get access to all our Pro Systems here.
Tulane is currently a five-point favorite over Houston, but our betting data suggests there’s value instead with the total — specifically the under.
All odds as of Wednesday at 12:30 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200 percent deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Sustained winds of 13 mph are expected at Yulman Stadium. Since 2005, games played with winds of least 13 mph have gone under the total 57 percent of the time over a sample of more than 850 games. A $100 bettor who wagered on the under every time would’ve profited $9,335.
In addition to windy weather expected to limit the explosive passing and kicking games, these teams lean on the run as well.
When two teams that average at least 215 yards on the ground play, the under is 155-129-6 (54.6 percent).
If we include just games with totals below 59 — the Houston vs. Tulane over/under sits at 56 — unders improve to 87-67-3 (56.5 percent).
What It Means
If you’re interested in betting Thursday night’s lone college football matchup, historical betting data indicates that we’ll see a lower-scoring game than the market expects.
Pick: Under 56