Why ESPN’s Jay Bilas is picking the Iowa Hawkeyes to top the Auburn Tigers

Offense efficiency and execution, tempo, 3-point shooting. Iowa can simply outscore teams, rather than lock down teams and win with defense. The Hawkeyes win when their offense carries them, not when their defense locks down, which it rarely does. Iowa scores easily from multiple positions, and takes really good care of the ball. Iowa turns it over on only 14% of its possessions, one of the best turnover rates in the nation. That leads to more shots, more offensive-rebound chances, and more chances to get fouled.

Kris Murray, the lefty twin of NBA star Keegan Murray, is the headliner, and he has a complete floor game. Murray averaged 20 points on 47% shooting over this last 10 regular-season games, and is very consistent at a high level. A key will be getting shots for Payton Sandfort, who knocked in 46% of his deep shots over his last 10 regular-season games. Iowa pushes tempo, changes defenses to speed, slow and disrupt the game, and rarely fouls. This is a high-assist, low-turnover team that can make shots. – Bilas, ESPN.

Playing hard, defense, rim protection, offensive rebounding. Nobody, with the exception of Houston, plays harder more consistently than Auburn. The Tigers can really guard the ball, and rank in the Top 25 in defensive efficiency.

Auburn’s most consistent producers have been Johni Broome, the big man transfer from Morehead State where he was OVC Defensive Player of the Year, and Wendell Green Jr., the ultraquick small guard who is a jet with the ball. Broome is a terrific rebounder, shot-blocker and interior scorer, and leads a defense that is top 10 in the country in blocked-shots rate with his 2.5 blocks per game. – Bilas, ESPN.

Defense, rebounding, interior defense. While Iowa can score, so can you. The Hawkeyes are average, at best, on the defensive end. This is not a shot-blocking or lane-protecting team, and the Hawkeyes give up too many open shots, which is problematic, but they don’t foul and don’t give up free throws, the most efficient place to score on a basketball court. – Bilas, ESPN.

Inefficient shooting, streaky guards. Auburn can struggle to make shots, shooting only 31% from 3-point range, Bottom 50 nationally. Wendell Green Jr. and K.D. Johnson are streaky, as evidenced by Green shooting just 25% from the field over his past five games, and Auburn’s wings are athletic but not proficient shot-makers from the perimeter, which allows defenses to pack it in on the Tigers. – Bilas, ESPN.

Kris Murray (brother of Keegan Murray, the 2-year standout at Iowa who the Sacramento Kings took fourth overall). Keegan was a little more of an efficient scorer, but not by much: Kris is a force on the offensive end and the blocked shots/steals combo is a plus. – Bilas, ESPN.

You will need offense to beat Houston. – Bilas, ESPN.

The Hawkeyes can change defenses and cause issues for an inconsistent-shooting Auburn team. Iowa must rebound with the Tigers, but shooting wins this one. – Bilas, ESPN.