Why Cincinnati Reds have no business being in playoff chase – and why they are anyway

The Cincinnati Reds have some of the worst starting pitching in baseball, some of the worst fielding metrics, typically start at least four players who were in the minors in May and have clinched a losing home record.

But they’re in a friggin’ pennant race with barely a week left in the season?

What in the Sam Moll is going on here?

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Some of the most basic, foundational truisms in baseball say the Reds have no business sniffing a winning record, much less a playoff berth this year.

Yet here they are, despite at least five tangible baseball reasons their season should have long been buried by now.

“Numbers are numbers,” center fielder TJ Friedl said. “There’s statistics, and there’s numbers, but there’s a lot of intangibles in baseball that aren’t accounted for. There’s momentum – momentum’s probably one of the biggest things. There’s camaraderie. There’s chemistry.”

No doubt that’s a conscious, top-down part of how this team was built and cultivated since spring training.

But it only works if enough talent and performance are included.

So before anybody goes too far down the road of “culture” and “baseball gods” – or reciting the Ted Lasso “Believe” mantra (which actually might be part of this) – consider this:

There actually seem to be at least five tangible baseball reasons to offset the first five – if not explain the whole confounding thing.

To wit:

Reason No. 1 the Reds shouldn't be here: Their Starting Pitching

The Reds lowered their team rotation ERA in the last week by seven points and through Friday still ranked third from the bottom at 5.33. Six teams in the majors had ERAs of 5.00 or higher entering Saturday, and the five others were all in last place in their divisions.

The Reds have used 17 starters this year (including three as openers for seven games) because of injuries, COVID-19 and underperformance; only the Oakland Athletics have used more.

Eight have been rookies. Six debuted this season – five since May 15. By the time Brandon Williamson starts Sunday it will be rookies in 16 of 21 starts.

Consequently, the young pitchers have run into issues with big jumps in workloads down the stretch, contributing to 14 starts of less than five innings this month (only three of those by openers).

And the Reds are third from the bottom in the National League with just 4.9 innings per start this season.

Said manager David Bell when asked what he planned to do for pitching down the stretch in the Reds’ biggest games in years: “We’ll figure it out.”

Reason No. 1 they're here anyway: Their Bullpen

A group of mostly minor-league free agents, waiver claims and Rule 5 draft survivors have carried the pitching load for this surprise contender – and emerged with a week to go as one of the best bullpens in baseball this season.

Maybe the best, depending on who’s doing the calculus.

The Reds’ pen leads MLB in collective wins above replacement, according to baseball-reference.com, and ranks fourth, according to fangraphs.com through Friday.

Their 618 innings (four per game) is tied for fifth in the majors. And three of the top seven pitchers in appearances this season are Reds, including closer Alexis Diaz (also Ian Gibaut and Buck Farmer).

“They’ve done more than whatever anyone could ever ask,” Friedl said.

Reason No. 2 the Reds shouldn’t be here: Subpar Fielding

Through Friday, the Reds ranked 27th of 30 teams in the majors in both Defensive Runs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved (fangraphs.com).

Friedl is the only Red who makes the list of 112 players fangraphs.com qualifies for its rankings (53 on one list; 61 on the other).

It’s part of why they acquired Gold Glove outfielder Harrison Bader when they got the chance at the end of last month. He’s on the injured list (groin) for the rest of the season.

Reason No. 2 they’re here anyway: Matt McLain and Spencer Steer

As bad as the fielding metrics look for the season, they were terrible in April.

According to at least one metric, they’ve improved significantly since the first two months of the season – more specifically, since McLain debuted May 15 at shortstop.

Their team Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) – essentially a measure of balls In play turned into outs – was a meager .658 before McLain’s debut.

Since then (through Monday’s win over the Twins): .708.

And, yes, that’s a significant difference.

(Big thanks to Cincinnati’s leading stat guru Joel Luckhaupt for finding these numbers).

Other more subtle changes along the way have made the Reds at least marginally better defensively as the season has gone on — perhaps none more than rookie infielder Steer’s surprising and proficient versatility.

He has handled for lengthy stretches work at three infield spots and both corner outfield spots this year — sometimes as many as three in the same game – as the Reds dealt with injuries and trying to maximize lineup matchups.

Reason No. 3 the Reds shouldn’t be here: They Can’t Win at Home

The only winning team in baseball with a losing record at home, the Reds have actually gotten worse at home as the team has gotten better overall. They were 13-9 at home on May 11 (16-21 overall) – but just 24-33 since (through Friday).

Nobody can explain it. Bell calls it “coincidental.”

The obvious explanation is that they’re not a team built for power, and they play in the most homer-friendly park in the majors. Consequently, they’ve been outhomered 133-103, outslugged .452 to .419 (and outscored 411-358) at home this year.

The bottom line is that if it doesn’t ultimately cost them a playoff berth, the losing record at home (which was clinched Wednesday) would make them one of only two teams to reach the postseason with a losing home record in a full season in big-league history (also the 2001 Atlanta Braves).

The Kansas City Royals in strike-shortened 1981 and Miami Marlins in pandemic-shortened 2020 also qualified with losing home records (also had losing overall records).

None of those three teams reached the World Series.

Reason No. 3 they’re here anyway: They Can’t Lose on the Road

Maybe getting out of the cramped confines of Great American Ball Park helps them spread their wings athletically more often. Maybe the adrenaline rush of big crowds and new places for so many newbies to the majors provides a lightning-in-a-bottle factor.

Whatever it is, the Reds are 35-19 (.648) on the road starting May 26 at Wrigley Field, the opener of a three-game sweep of the Cubs – one of five road sweeps since then.

They’ve won 12 of their last 17 road series, and that road mark since May 26 is the best in the majors.

They’ll need all that road mojo if they make the playoffs, because they won’t have the home-field (dis)advantage at any point in October.

Reason No. 4 the Reds shouldn’t be here: Their Ridiculous Lack of Experience

Did we mention all those rookie starting pitchers?

How about the 22 times since Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s debut in July that the Reds have started an all-rookie infield?

Or their 16 big-league debuts this year (most in the majors)?

Or the 23 rookies who have played at least one game for them (also most in the majors)?

Even most of the non-rookies are young – the All-Star closer (Diaz) and outfielder Will Benson playing major roles in their first full big-league seasons.

Nine Reds have made the playoffs in their careers, two of whom are on the injured list and would be questionable for October.

Reason No. 4 they’re here anyway: Their Ridiculous Athleticism

Rookie Elly De La Cruz has the fastest sprint speed in the majors and the strongest infield arm.

Rookies McLain, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer also have above-average big-league speed – along with Benson and Friedl, both of whom are in their first full big-league seasons. And backup outfielder Stuart Fairchild. And 2021 Rookie of the Year Jonathan India. And so on.

The Reds are at the front end of an athletic trend in the game (see: Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles) that corresponds to 2023 rules changes that limit pitchers’ pickoff attempts and, limit defensive shifts and enlarged the bases.

Athleticism hasn’t been this important to winning in baseball in decades.

One byproduct: The Reds have 20 more stolen bases than anyone else in baseball (178), with 70 coming from the rookies.

“I don’t think there’s such a thing as too young (to contend),” Steer said. “We’re definitely a young team, but there’s advantages to being young.

“I’ve never played this long of a season, but I think being young kind of helps me right now because I still feel fresh and still feel like I’ve got high energy every day.”

Reason No. 5 the Reds shouldn’t be here: Elly De La Cruz and Andrew Abbott Have Faded since July

Abbott’s career-high workload (by a lot) has been an obvious issue for most of his last 10 starts (6.15 ERA), and Bell and pitching coach Derek Johnson have given him extra rest down the stretch and limited his game load when he labors.

De La Cruz, MLB’s flavor of the month in June – a guy who filmed a Tom Cruise movie commercial before he reached the big leagues this year – has generally not been effective since the All-Star break and especially struggled this month both in the field and at the plate.

He has been dropped in the lineup and rotated to the bench for multiple games over the past two weeks, and he’ll likely lose more playing time when McLain returns from an oblique injury Tuesday, presumably at short.

Reason No. 5 they’re here anyway: Elly De La Cruz and Andrew Abbott Were Spectacular in June and July

Where would the Reds be without Abbott’s first 10 starts since that June 5 debut? He started his career with six scoreless innings to beat the Brewers — and averaged 6 1/3 innings per start over his first 10 with a 1.90 ERA.

The Reds won nine of the 10.

And where would the Reds be without Elly De La Cruz’s phenomenal five-week start to his career – having debuted the day after Abbott.

He doubled in his debut, homered and tripled in his second game – both Reds wins – and in his 15th game hit for the cycle.

In between, the Reds tied a modern franchise record with 12 consecutive victories.

From De La Cruz’s debut through July 8 – the day he stole three bases in the span of two pitches – he hit .328 with an .899 OPS and 16 stolen bases and the Reds scored roughly two runs more a game than they did before he arrived.

From Abbott’s debut through that game, the Reds were 23-7 – the difference between being in the playoff race now or eliminated.

“Those guys, along with McLain, along with Williamson, along with Marte, along with CES – every single person we’ve brought up has only helped us,” Friedl said. “It’s the kind of thing where you hit the ground in stride. We’re playing good baseball, and you bring up Abbott, and he exceeds every expectation. You bring up Elly, and he exceeds every expectation. McLain … You add another piece, and another piece, and it’s like you hit the ground in stride and you’re running. And you continue running with them.”

Maybe that’s the tangible side of the intangible “momentum” Friedl and others in the clubhouse talk about.

And that chemistry and camaraderie part? Somehow a team this young didn’t fold when a 10-17 August that included little help at the trade deadline and mounting injuries threatened to bury them.

“This team is really, really close,” Friedl said. “A lot more than numbers go into it.”

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Cincinnati Reds MLB playoffs contention odds, trends