Why the Chiefs targeted Xavier Worthy in NFL Draft, and why he’s not more of the same

On the face of it, the Chiefs made a flurry of moves in the opening round of the NFL Draft that, even in rapid succession Thursday, surprised just about no one.

A trade up in the first round? Seen that.

To select a wide receiver? We all thought they could use one.

To select a wide receiver with world-class speed? It is Andy Reid’s offense, after all.

But I want to focus on that last part — the NFL Combine record-breaking speed — because the rationale behind picking Texas wideout Xavier Worthy at No. 28 overall is not that he is a neat fit with what already exists in the Chiefs’ offense.

Instead, he fills a gap that they so desperately needed to fill a year ago.

A downfield threat.

If your snapshot of quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense is through a wide lens, it probably flashes back to the speed at the origin: Tyreek Hill.

But here’s the thing. The Chiefs haven’t been successful throwing the football downfield since Hill’s departure, even if they’ve hoisted a pair of Super Bowl trophies in the meantime.

That’s putting it kindly. Let’s be more accurate. They’ve stunk on downfield throws.

Last year, 23 quarterbacks fired at least 47 passes 20-plus yards downfield. You know where Mahomes ranked among those 23 quarterbacks in passer rating?

Twenty-third.

Dead last.

By a huge margin, too. Mahomes had a passer rating of 49.1 on attempts that traveled 20-plus yards in the air, per data on Pro Football Focus. Second worst on the list, Carolina’s Bryce Young, was at 60.9. Mahomes trailed Young, Sam Howell, Gardner Minshew, Will Levis. All of them.

But if you think that’s an indictment of Mahomes alone, let me add a couple of more numbers to the mix. Six of Mahomes’ deep passes were dropped by his receivers, more than any other quarterback experienced, per the PFF data. Heck, Derek Carr took 67 downfield shots, and the Saints didn’t drop a single one.

The Chiefs’ drop percentage was 20.0% on catchable deep passes, by far the highest number in the league.

They had only two touchdowns on downfield throws all year, the second fewest on that list. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy, not exactly known for his big arm, had 12.

Xavier Worthy is not more of the same.

He is a potential solution to a problem.

Will he be that solution? That’s the to-be-determined element in all of this, of course.

What we already know: Worthy has the speed to stretch a defense. His 4.21-second 40-yard dash set an NFL Combine record.

He only rated, however, middle-of-the-pack on downfield shots last year at Texas. He had just six catches in that area of the field.

But it’s notable that his Longhorns quarterback, Quinn Ewers, rated as a poor thrower on such attempts.

“It’s a quarterback league and a speed game,” Chiefs general manager Brett Veach said. “The more speed you have on the field, the harder it is for defenses to take away different elements of the game. ... Anytime you can have that kind of offensive firepower — I mean 4.21 is pretty good speed there.”

The Chiefs will surely try to utilize Worthy more than running wind sprints down the side of the field. Head coach Reid preempted any mention of the speed with a nod to Worthy’s route-running. That’s encouraging if route-running truly popped on the tape. It’s easy to envision Worthy being used on horizontal plays, such as a jet-sweep, a concept he became plenty familiar with at Texas.

He also led FBS in punt return yards, and Reid practically called him the Chiefs’ 2024 returner before he’s even stepped foot in the facility.

The idea, in totality, with a first-round selection isn’t to make him a one-trick player.

All the same, though, let’s not ignore the weeds by getting lost rummaging through them. That 4.21 — the number Veach rattled off like his pin code — has the best opportunity to fill the need within the need.

It’s not just a wide receiver in the first round. It’s a specific type of wide receiver.

Time will answer whether Worthy is capable of filling the Chiefs’ need, but there is no question that the need exists, even after the team made a point of adding Marquise Brown earlier this offseason — a target partially for similar reasons but also because of his cost.

There’s a one-year pact with Brown. Worthy arrives in Kansas City on a four-year deal with a fifth-year team option.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who did fill a one-trick wind-sprint role, had all of three catches on deep throws in the regular season in 2023. Three. I don’t have to remind you he dropped one.

Rashee Rice had one catch, and it came as the result of a busted coverage.

But it’s not strictly about the plays made. It’s about the respected threat of them. For a few years now, we’ve heard about the shell coverage the Chiefs frequently encounter, defensive schemes designed to make them nickel-and-dime their way down the field. Mahomes had the lowest average depth of target of any quarterback in the NFL in 2023.

You know what would make living that life a bit easier? If the threat of downfield shots opened things up a little bit.

Travis Kelce is as good as any tight end in football in operating in short and intermediate space. That also became Rice’s strength as a rookie, along with his ability to make plays when given the opportunity after those short catches.

Well, maybe a few more opportunities just opened up.