Who's going to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby? See Courier Journal sports staff picks
The 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby is almost here.
The world's finest 3-year-old horses are scheduled to race about 6:57 p.m. Saturday at Churchill Downs. Millions will be wagered at the track and around the world on strong favorites and the longest long shots.
Who will win the Garland of Roses on Saturday night? Here are The Courier Journal sports staff's picks to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby:
Rich Barak
Winner: Catching Freedom
On the board: Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Forever Young
Long shot pick: Honor Marie
If Fierceness and Sierra Leone can overcome their tough starting spots, they will be tough to beat. I expect a free-for-all at the top of the stretch and envision Catching Freedom and Sierra Leone flying past Fierceness to edge him at the wire.
Ryan Black
Winner: Fierceness
On the board: Sierra Leone, Stronghold, Forever Young
Long shot pick: Just a Touch
No horse enters the Run for the Roses in better form than Fierceness, who won his last start (the Florida Derby at Gulfstream) by 13 ½ lengths on March 30. But that’s not the only thing he’s got going for him. He’ll be led by the Derby’s most experienced jockey, John Velazquez (three-time Derby winner in 25 mounts). And he’s trained by the one of the best: two-time Derby victor Todd A. Pletcher, the highest-earning trainer in North American history. Not the most imaginative pick, I’ll admit. But picking the winner is more fun than being creative.
C.L. Brown
Winner: Just a Touch
On the board: Fierceness, T O Password
Long shot pick: West Saratoga
With a better draw, I’d take Sierra Leone to win, but starting at post No. 2 will be too much to overcome. Just a Touch is the right horse in the right position in a field that has a lot of parity.
Alexis Cubit
Winner: West Saratoga
On the board: Just Steel, Sierra Leone, Fierceness
Long shot pick: T O Password
The Derby has had its fair share of surprises and underdog (or underhorse?) winners. This year seems like as good a time as any for one of the horses you'd least expect to win to do so.
Jason Frakes
Winner: Just a Touch
On the board: Sierra Leone
Long shot pick: Honor Marie
Just a Touch has improved with every race and seems to be sitting on a huge performance when it matters most. Trainer Brad Cox gets to find out how it feels to win the Kentucky Derby when his horse crosses the finish line first.
Brooks Holton
Winner: Fierceness
On the board: Just a Touch, Sierra Leone, Honor Marie
Long shot pick: Domestic Product
Judging only by Derby wins, this is an inexperienced group of jockeys. Hall of Famer John Velazquez is trying to become only the fourth man to reach the winner’s circle four times in the Run for the Roses. Arming the 52-year-old Puerto Rican with the fastest horse in the field doesn’t hurt his chances, either.
Prince James Story
Winner: Just a Touch
On the board: Fierceness, Catching Freedom, Sierra Leone
Long shot pick: Endlessly
He is his daddy's son. As Jason Frakes explained in Just a Touch's profile, he did not race as a 2-year-old, but neither did his sire, 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. He was close to beating Sierra Leone at the Blue Grass Stakes, but this time, I think he finishes the job.
Natalie Pierre
Winner: Forever Young
On the board: Fierceness, Just a Touch
Long shot pick: Honor Marie
This is the year a horse from Japan finally gets it done in the Run for the Roses. Forever Young is a proven winner with the speed, experience and post to add a statement victory to his perfect resume on Saturday night at Churchill Downs.
Reach sports reporter Brooks Warren at bwarren@gannett.com and follow him on X at @Broookksss.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby picks from Courier Journal for May 4 at Churchill Downs
