Which NBA star could be traded next? Examining Pascal Siakam's and others' situations
The escalation of the player empowerment era risks rendering NBA contracts meaningless to fans. They are becoming little more than unfathomable figures for teams to fit under increasingly complicated salary caps.
One-time league MVP James Harden opted into a $35.6 million salary for next season, only to seek a trade from the Philadelphia 76ers, since no other team would pay him so much in free agency. He wants his money and his preferred destination, the Los Angeles Clippers, and he could submarine the Sixers until he gets both. This is their reward for Ben Simmons doing just that in 2021 with four years left on his contract.
One year after the Washington Wizards gave Bradley Beal everything he desired — a fully guaranteed five-year, $251 million contract, complete with a no-trade clause — he wanted on the Phoenix Suns, so they accepted in return one handful of second-round picks, another full of first-round pick swaps, (ultimately) the entire four-year, $128 million contract Jordan Poole signed a year ago and the chance to tank this season.
Likewise, Damian Lillard wants on the Miami Heat one year removed from signing a two-year, $122 million extension with the Portland Trail Blazers that runs his contract through the 2026-27 season. His agent has publicly dissuaded other teams from pursuing his client. The NBA has since warned that such behavior can result in discipline, although we have no idea if the penalty is enough to concern ultra-rich stars and teams.
It is easy to get lost in the details or tune out completely, at least until the next big-name players make headlines for requesting trades, or teams beat them to the punch, dealing them before it gets to that point. Here, we try to sort it all out for you based on past precedent, determining who is most likely to move next.
The Kawhi Leonard Corollary: Pascal Siakam
(The final season of a rookie-scale contract extension.)
The most common NBA trade requests follow a familiar timeline: A rising superstar, tired of toiling in the market that drafted him, asks off his team one year from his first entry into unrestricted free agency. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was not entering the final season of a rookie-scale contract extension when he requested a trade from the Milwaukee Bucks in 1974, but for all intents and purposes, they followed the same script.
Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul re-popularized the idea in the early 2010s, and by the end of the decade, it was a full-on fad. Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis all requested trades in a two-year span, each seeking a new home in the year prior to his first foray into unrestricted free agency.
It is a noble attempt to serve both sides, returning value to the franchise for someone who no longer wants to be part of it. Only, he may not want to play for his new team, either. This is the gamble. It paid off for the Toronto Raptors, who traded DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a first-round draft pick to the San Antonio Spurs for Leonard in 2018. He delivered the Raptors a title before joining the Clippers in free agency, and the Spurs salvaged some genuine assets from what amounted to a one-year rental of Leonard's services.
Toronto could find itself on the other end of that spectrum in the months to come. Since Jaylen Brown signed his supermax contract extension with the Boston Celtics, Pascal Siakam is the only recent All-Star entering the final season of his rookie-scale contract. Everyone understands this, including whoever leaked word to Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes that Siakam may not re-sign with the team that trades for him.
Each party is trying to maximize its leverage. Siakam knows the Raptors can guarantee him the most money, especially if he makes another All-NBA roster for them this coming season. Suitors know Siakam can walk at season's end, and adding him as a championship hired gun is a longer shot than Leonard was. Toronto is walking the tightrope of paying Siakam that contract or losing him for nothing next summer and weighing either scenario against having to accept less than the "high valuation" they currently have of him.
Siakam's affinity for the Raptors could fade if they decide he is not worth the contract he is seeking, and a trade request at any point in the final year of his current deal would remove any leverage Toronto has left. This surely has the Raptors surveying the landscape already. The rumor mill surrounding any star entering the last season of a rookie-scale contract extension is a cycle from which everyone is trying to escape.
How likely is Pascal Siakam to be traded this season?
(Answers are bolded.)
Highly likely
Likely
Neutral
Unlikely
Highly unlikely
The Kyrie Irving 1.0 and Dejounte Murray Corollaries: Brandon Ingram
(Two years left on a rookie-scale contract extension.)
Kyrie Irving circumnavigated that speculation by requesting a trade from the Cleveland Cavaliers with two years remaining on his rookie-scale contact extension in 2017. The Boston Celtics dealt Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder and a top-flight unprotected first-round draft pick for Irving. The All-Star point guard suffered a season-ending injury in his first year with the Celtics and reneged on a promise to re-sign the following year.
The risk is more palatable when you have two bites at the apple. Brandon Ingram is the only star-level player two years from his first free agency, so long as you no longer consider Ben Simmons on that level and share the belief that Jamal Murray is a permanent fixture on the defending champion Denver Nuggets.
There was little to suggest the Pelicans would entertain trading Ingram earlier in the offseason, but that may change if he sours on his situation before the February trade deadline — or if New Orleans sours on him.
The Spurs did not want to land on the losing side of a leverage game again, so they beat Dejounte Murray to the punch last year, trading him before he requested one with two years left on a rookie-scale extension.
The Spurs might have also decided at that point they were not interested in paying Murray what it may have cost to retain him. Whatever the reason, San Antonio received more draft capital — the rights to four first-round picks — for Murray than it did Leonard. Ingram will not return the same package Davis did for New Orleans, but the Pelicans should consider dealing the 25-year-old if another team is willing to overpay.
How likely is Brandon Ingram to be traded this season?
(Answers are bolded.)
Highly likely
Likely
Neutral
Unlikely
Highly unlikely
The Donovan Mitchell Corollary: Mikal Bridges
(Three years left on a rookie-scale contract extension.)
The Utah Jazz took this idea a step further, trading Donovan Mitchell to the Cleveland Cavaliers three years before they risked losing him to unrestricted free agency, maximizing their return and jump-starting a rebuild.
A ton of talented players are in this situation, including Bam Adebayo, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, De'Aaron Fox, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaren Jackson Jr., Anfernee Simons and Jayson Tatum.
Miami and Boston have split the Eastern Conference finals the past two years, so Adebayo and Tatum are off the table. The Heat's unwillingness to seriously consider the Portland Trail Blazers' interest in Adebayo around the draft reinforced this notion. Any phone call for Tatum should be similarly met with a dial tone.
As for the others? The Phoenix Suns also intend to compete for a championship, and Ayton's availability will depend on his contributions toward that effort in the coming months. In the unlikely event the playoff prospects of Memphis, New York, Sacramento or Oklahoma City are pushed outside the three-year windows of Jackson, Brunson, Fox or Gilgeous-Alexander, any of them would fetch a massive haul.
Portland and Brooklyn might be at that point with Simons and Bridges. Both teams are waiting on a superstar, and there are serviceable replacements at their positions already on the rosters in a short-term miles from contention. Maybe they become trade bait for that superstar, even if in the form of a future draft pick. The Grizzlies reportedly offered four first-rounders for Bridges at the deadline, and the Nets declined, which tells you how hard it is to land any of these guys. (And how much you could get for one of them.)
How likely is Mikal Bridges to be traded this season?
(Answers are bolded.)
Highly likely
Likely
Neutral
Unlikely
Highly unlikely
The Rudy Gobert Corollary: Karl-Anthony Towns
(Less than desirable long-term veteran maximum contracts.)
The Jazz were in a unique situation with Mitchell, because they also offloaded the remaining years (three plus a player option) of Rudy Gobert's near-supermax contract for a king's ransom — almost a decade's worth of recent and future first-round picks from the Minnesota Timberwolves. With a new team owner, general manager and coach at the helm of a team that had plateaued, Utah was hellbent on starting from scratch.
If you are opening the trade gates to veterans with three or more years left on their contracts, the list of stars is long. It is shorter when you only consider high-paid veterans whose contracts could become overly cumbersome when the highly restrictive new collective bargaining agreement goes into full effect in 2024.
Players who fit that description:
Gobert: Again.
Karl-Anthony Towns: Why is Minnesota paying three centers a combined $90 million?
Kyrie Irving: How confident are you that Irving stays happy in Dallas for even one full season?
C.J. McCollum: The roster in New Orleans is only going to get more expensive.
Nikola Vučević: Why did Chicago give him a three-year extension in the first place?
Zach LaVine: The Bulls have already paid him $117.2 million to win a single playoff game in six years, and they owe him another $178.1 million through the 2026-27 campaign. He should be available now.
Julius Randle: He has shot 34.4% from the field in his playoff career.
Draymond Green: He is running out of strikes on a Golden State team that is running out of innings.
Andrew Wiggins: Will the Warriors pay $180 million in taxes for a sixth-seeded team again?
Jarrett Allen: Evan Mobley will make Allen expendable for Cleveland sooner or later.
Jerami Grant: Nobody signed a richer free-agent contract this summer than Grant, a zero-time All-Star who will turn 30 years old on a rebuilding team that is developing its new five-year plan as we speak.
Khris Middleton: How much healthier is Middleton going to get at 32 years old?
Because the Timberwolves have no chance of recouping everything they traded for Gobert by flipping him to a new team, they will be forced to reckon with Towns' value if the two big men cannot figure out how to coexist in the second season of their partnership. A disaster of a trade could get even worse for Minnesota.
How likely is Karl-Anthony Towns to be traded this season?
(Answers are bolded.)
Highly likely
Likely
Neutra.
Unlikely
Highly unlikely
The Chris Paul 2.0 Corollary: James Harden
(The final season of a veteran maximum contract.)
When Paul wanted off the Clippers in 2017, he actually opted into the final year of his contract to facilitate a trade to join James Harden on the Houston Rockets. In return, the Clippers received Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell and Patrick Beverley, among other assets. Harden is trying the same strategy as a member of the Philadelphia 76ers, except they are not so willing to accept a cast of role players from the Clippers in return.
If we are looking for potentially unhappy veteran stars entering the final year of their contracts, consider DeRozan. He has never made a public showing of his displeasure with floundering situations over the years, but he is about to turn 34 years old and running out of opportunities to vie for a championship.
How likely is James Harden to be traded this season?
(Answers are bolded.)
Highly likely
Likely
Neutral
Unlikely
Highly unlikely
The James Harden 2.0 Corollary: Kawhi Leonard
(Two years left on a veteran maximum contract.)
It is increasingly difficult to keep track of Harden trades at this point. When he asked off the Rockets in 2020, he could see Houston's decline ahead of him and sought a trade with two years left on a veteran maximum contract. Both Paul and Russell Westbrook also wanted off the Rockets in 2019 and 2020, respectively, with two years left on their max deals. It seems the same players are getting tired of the same old scenery around the same time over and over again, especially when they are playing with each other.
Which is why it is interesting that Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook all have two years remaining on their contracts while concentrated on three teams. George and Leonard are especially compelling, particularly if Harden lands on the Clippers with them. How many months do you give them together before one of them — or their coach — grows tired of the others?
It is hard to imagine Leonard is entering his fifth season in Los Angeles. He has never played more than 57 games in a season and has finished just one playoff run for the Clippers — in the Orlando bubble. Yet, when he is on the court, he has been dominant. Is it so hard to believe the Clippers would be willing to move his extension-eligible contract if they can find a desperate team that considers him the missing title piece?
How likely is Kawhi Leonard to be traded this season?
(Answers are bolded.)
Highly likely.
Likely.
Neutral.
Unlikely.
Highly unlikely.
The Kevin Durant Corollary: Joel Embiid
(Less than happy veterans on long-term maximum contracts.)
Stars are seeking trades earlier and earlier after signing veteran maximum contracts. Durant wanted off the Nets before his four-year extension even began at the start of last season. Lillard is doing the same to Portland this summer. Beal made his way to Phoenix one year into a five-year, $251 million deal.
The list of veterans with three or more years left on their contracts who might actually request a trade in the near future has to include Durant and Irving, if for no other reason than they are both entirely unpredictable.
The juicier names, though, are Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid. Antetokounmpo won a title in Milwaukee, but the Bucks paid handsomely this summer to keep together the aging core of a team that just lost in the first round of the playoffs. Antetokounmpo has offered no indication he might want a change of scenery, but the depreciating circumstances around him make the entire situation one worth monitoring.
Embiid did drop a breadcrumb this summer, stating publicly, "I just wanna win a championship, whatever it takes. I don’t know where that’s gonna be, whether that’s in Philly or anywhere else." Whether or not Embiid had his tongue planted firmly in cheek when he said that, the Sixers have given him little reason to believe they can construct a championship roster around him. Nobody should be surprised if Embiid requests a trade at any point, especially if the Sixers fail to acquire enough talent in return for Harden this summer.
How likely is Joel Embiid to be traded this season?
(Answers are bolded.)
Highly likely
Likely
Neutral
Unlikely
Highly unlikely
The Kristaps Porziņģis Corollary: Tyrese Maxey
(Rising stars in the final season of a rookie-scale contract.)
Another name to watch in Philadelphia is Tyrese Maxey. He will not sign an extension this summer, since the Sixers can create significant salary cap space a year from now if he enters restricted free agency (with the caveat that the 2024 free-agent market is thin). The Knicks and Kristaps Porziņģis faced a similar scenario in 2018, and they dealt him prior to the 2019 deadline. He was rehabbing a torn left ACL, and they were less than fully sold on giving an injured 7-foot-3 Unicorn a maximum rookie-scale contract extension.
The Sixers and Maxey are surely more interested in a long-term partnership, but if for any reason the Sixers can upgrade their roster by moving him, they have to entertain the thought. They will more than entertain it if Embiid applies pressure to the front office and/or Philadelphia's brass questions whether it is wise to tie significant salary to a 6-foot-2 guard with defensive question marks for the remainder of Embiid's prime.
To a lesser degree, New York's Immanuel Quickley and Minnesota's Jaden McDaniels also fit this mold. It appears the Timberwolves are closer to signing McDaniels to an extension than the Knicks are Quickley.
How likely is Tyrese Maxey to be traded this season?
(Answers are bolded.)
Highly likely
Likely
Neutral
Unlikely
Highly unlikely
The Ben Simmons Corollary: Zion Williamson
(Less than happy and/or desirable rising stars on long-term rookie-scale contract extensions.)
Simmons took the player empowerment era to its extreme. When a recent No. 1 overall draft pick refuses to report to training camp and demands a trade within a year of signing a maximum rookie-scale contract extension — with little recourse — you can bet the subject was broached in CBA negotiations.
This essentially meant any young star could become available at any point for any reason, regardless of his contract. The new CBA will make it harder for players to both get paid and choose their next destination, but it does not explicitly prevent anyone from becoming a chaos agent. Security is not the same for teams as it is players. This is incentive for franchises to construct contenders around rising stars as quickly and efficiently as possible, but even that is no guarantee, as we learned from Simmons' tenure in Philadelphia.
If ever there was a player who fit the Simmons mold it is Zion Williamson. Even though Simmons never improved his shooting enough to reach his extraordinary potential, he was still tantalizing enough to secure a max extension, despite the persistent awkwardness between him and his team. Insert "conditioning" for "shooting," and the same can be said of Williamson entering the first year of his max deal in New Orleans.
We have been left to wonder if Williamson even wants to be on the Pelicans since he arrived as the No. 1 overall pick in 2019. Nobody would bat an eyelash if he decides he wants a change of scenery so soon into his career, and the risk of assuming an oft-injured superstar's $200 million contract is inherent to his value.
Given how fickle the NBA has become, would it shock you if Luka Dončić or Trae Young grew dissatisfied with their situations in Dallas and Atlanta? Both are more accomplished than Williamson, but those accomplishments have also revealed their respective teams' sub-championship ceilings, and the work it will require to correct course could take longer than the three team-controlled years left on their contracts.
The way the league is shifting, it would not even be all that surprising if their teams get ahead of the game and take The Donovan Mitchell Corollary to its extreme. A battle for leverage has left players and their teams racing against each other to decide how early is too early to consider trading the face of a franchise.
How likely is Zion Williamson to be traded this season?
(Answers are bolded.)
Highly likely
Likely
Neutral
Unlikely
Highly unlikely
